Denton ISD Growth Analysis: Enrollment, Development, and Future Projections
Denton ISD has experienced significant growth in enrollment and development over the years, with detailed data on district growth, high school growth, annual closings, vacant developed lots, and future lot inventory provided. The analysis covers trends from 2007 to 2022, highlighting key subdivisions and their contributions to the overall growth of Denton ISD.
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District Growth: 40,000 35,000 35,766 30,000 25,000 31,437 20,000 26,677 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2013 2018 2022
Denton ISD enrollment has grown by almost 28% since 2007 Bond Election 30,000 25,000 26,677 20,000 20,892 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2007 2013-14
Annual Closing Distribution Second Quarter: 2013 Top 10 Subdivisons - 2Q13 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Subdivision Paloma Creek South (DISD) Savannah (Denton County) Cross Oak Ranch Providence (Denton Co) Paloma Creek Robson Ranch Lantana/Bandera Preserve at Pecan Creek Central Village Estates Glenbrooke Estates (Prosper) TOTALS 117 158 150 104 53 66 33 61 27 39 808 45 52 60 36 4 16 8 35 2 15 273 129 121 103 99 70 62 36 35 34 31 720 10 45 38 27 14 16 5 15 6 10 186 4
Vacant Developed Lots Second Quarter: 2013 Top 10 Subdivisons - 2Q13 (Ranked by remaining Vacant Developed Lots) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Paloma Creek South (DISD) Robson Ranch Cross Oak Ranch Providence (Denton Co) Preserve at Pecan Creek Lantana/Kendall Emerald Sound Savannah (Denton County) Country Lakes North (DISD) Villas at Maple Leaf TOTALS 315 274 232 219 111 86 78 76 76 76 1,543 963 1,454 559 133 302 0 0 717 701 10 0 4,829 5
Future Lots Second Quarter: 2013 Top 10 Subdivisons -2Q13 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Subdivision VDL Future 1,454 1,433 1,331 1,217 Robson Ranch Lakeview Ranch Rudman Estates Spiritas Ranch West Paloma Creek South (DISD) Savannah (Denton County) Country Lakes North (DISD) King's Ridge Estates Spiritas Ranch East Cross Oak Ranch 274 10 0 0 315 76 76 963 717 701 653 608 559 9,636 0 0 232 983 TOTALS 6
High School Growth 12,000 10,000 8,000 9,700 6,000 8,200 6,556 4,000 2,000 0 2012-13 2018 2022
Growth of High School Students (380 Area Eastern Section) 1000 900 800 880 700 600 500 400 300 405 200 100 0 April 2012 Current
High School Growth of Southern Section (Guyer High area) Guyer HS 2,500 2,000 2,225 1,500 1,000 1,095 500 0 2005 2013
Middle School Growth: 8,000 6,740 5,559 2012-13 2018 2022
Middle School & High School Ten Year Forecast MIDDLE SCHOOL CAMPUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS History Capacity Functional 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 851 849 773 823 850 823 823 745 750 774 829 904 988 1,047 1,149 978 1,019 975 996 1,034 885 927 869 903 880 956 1,037 916 923 1,003 0 0 629 820 836 Current Projections Campus Name Calhoun Middle School McMath Middle School Navo Middle School Crownover Middle School Strickland Middle School Harpool Middle School Bette Myers Middle School 2022/23 1,016 943 2,013 1,013 1,047 1,065 987 865 773 1,195 1,012 917 980 853 865 793 1,296 1,017 920 963 886 927 815 1,420 995 980 925 942 967 869 1,602 1,010 977 949 980 997 892 1,760 992 995 983 987 996 922 1,883 1,003 1,020 1,033 987 Total Middle School Middle School Growth 5,322 206 5,559 237 5,895 336 6,262 367 6,526 264 6,595 69 6,740 145 7,004 264 7,354 350 7,606 252 7,844 238 8,084 240 HIGH SCHOOL CAMPUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Capacity Functional 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 1,842 1,998 2,043 2,099 2,138 31 72 72 72 72 2,137 2,198 2,302 2,367 2,504 2,185 2,288 2,401 2,464 2,598 6,195 6,556 6,818 7,002 7,312 222 361 262 184 310 History Current Projections Campus Name Denton High School Fred Moore High School John Guyer High School Ryan High School Total High School High School growth 2022/23 2,930 72 3,010 3,683 9,695 331 2,253 72 2,699 2,758 7,782 470 2,390 72 2,873 2,914 8,249 467 2,484 72 3,021 3,043 8,620 371 2,565 72 3,044 3,149 8,830 210 2,656 72 3,057 3,295 9,080 250 2,785 72 3,021 3,486 9,364 284 Denton J J A E P Juvenile Detention CTR Lester Davis School 4 40 35 2 44 57 2 44 57 2 44 57 2 44 57 2 44 57 2 44 57 2 44 57 2 44 57 2 44 57 2 44 57 2 44 57 TOTAL Student Growth Percent Growth 24,855 831 3.5% 25,786 931 3.7% 26,677 891 3.5% 27,483 806 3.0% 28,388 905 3.3% 29,336 948 3.3% 30,336 1,000 3.4% 31,437 1,101 3.6% 32,446 1,009 3.2% 33,485 1,039 3.2% 34,586 1,101 3.3% 35,766 1,180 3.4% 11
Elementary School Growth: 20,000 18,000 16,000 17,884 14,000 12,000 15,710 10,000 13,500 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2013 2018 2022
Elementary Campus Ten Year Forecast ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CAMPUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS History Capacity Functional 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 740 657 719 757 759 779 740 452 449 453 457 464 740 428 466 508 549 571 740 771 693 685 680 662 740 573 548 544 554 574 740 602 626 632 647 666 740 652 684 704 711 743 740 611 611 638 658 676 740 621 663 647 643 642 740 592 599 614 607 635 740 567 548 520 527 508 740 727 711 686 667 653 740 520 521 525 528 509 740 691 743 661 716 760 740 727 715 743 766 792 740 520 502 671 718 764 740 650 645 680 683 697 740 472 543 580 583 589 740 527 629 655 730 800 740 545 605 621 619 653 740 661 612 601 578 574 740 342 348 348 348 348 740 351 388 388 388 388 17,020 13,259 13,568 13,861 14,116 14,447 396 309 293 255 331 Current Projections Campus Name Blanton Elementary School Borman Elementary School Cross Oaks Elementary School E P Rayzor Elementary School Evers Park Elementary School Ginnings Elementary School Hodge Elementary School Houston Elementary School Nelson Elementary School Lee Elementary School McNair Elementary School Hawk Elementary School Olive Stephens Elementary School Paloma Creek Elementary School Pecan Creek Elementary School Providence Elementary School Newton Rayzor Elementary School Rivera Elementary School Savannah Elementary School Ryan Elementary School Wilson Elementary School Ann Windle School For Young Child Gonzalez School For Young Child 2022/23 922 752 938 959 794 785 932 715 637 765 533 654 497 851 943 1,304 682 609 1,408 869 599 348 388 771 478 626 683 591 671 762 684 653 641 506 647 512 789 812 829 693 607 922 683 560 348 388 796 494 686 707 613 687 788 719 643 661 502 641 495 822 828 902 665 616 984 689 570 348 388 826 531 734 751 640 703 812 724 641 676 509 648 505 828 845 973 664 595 1,056 736 577 348 388 842 574 782 797 664 724 836 710 641 694 514 647 501 834 875 1,046 652 600 1,142 764 584 348 388 855 628 830 850 703 741 868 713 641 715 515 650 502 840 899 1,126 657 600 1,233 801 593 348 388 888 684 884 903 748 763 899 713 637 738 521 655 501 846 926 1,212 669 600 1,318 837 597 348 388 Total Elementary Elementary growth 14,856 409 15,244 388 15,710 466 16,159 449 16,696 537 17,275 579 17,884 609 13
Denton ISD: Ten Year Forecast DENTON INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT - GRADE LEVEL ENROLLMENT Year (Oct.) 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 EE/PRE-K 644 936 995 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 K 1st 2,032 2,015 2,080 2,165 2,180 2,236 2,279 2,334 2,417 2,504 2,595 2,672 2,753 2,838 2nd 1,989 2,080 2,038 2,054 2,204 2,222 2,278 2,338 2,417 2,485 2,578 2,670 2,745 2,832 3rd 1,896 2,022 2,089 2,064 2,084 2,241 2,260 2,327 2,398 2,478 2,554 2,648 2,738 2,818 4th 1,864 1,892 2,049 2,110 2,084 2,099 2,274 2,287 2,382 2,454 2,528 2,616 2,715 2,806 5th 1,737 1,888 1,920 2,060 2,158 2,116 2,136 2,316 2,339 2,442 2,507 2,587 2,685 2,786 6th 1,682 1,715 1,878 1,930 2,063 2,286 2,248 2,250 2,453 2,506 2,584 2,661 2,745 2,838 7th 1,648 1,705 1,768 1,887 1,963 2,104 2,324 2,290 2,295 2,497 2,561 2,636 2,714 2,802 8th 1,641 1,696 1,686 1,767 1,899 2,019 2,173 2,376 2,336 2,351 2,550 2,617 2,690 2,769 9th 1,724 1,793 1,829 1,822 1,906 2,112 2,209 2,388 2,604 2,559 2,580 2,788 2,864 2,944 10th 1,421 1,563 1,676 1,772 1,726 1,808 2,021 2,099 2,271 2,478 2,433 2,453 2,649 2,720 11th 1,321 1,368 1,472 1,609 1,686 1,617 1,699 1,891 1,963 2,130 2,323 2,280 2,301 2,486 12th 1,222 1,321 1,287 1,428 1,553 1,609 1,546 1,628 1,812 1,875 2,036 2,214 2,175 2,190 Total 22,819 24,024 24,855 25,791 26,677 27,686 28,714 29,849 31,089 32,255 33,394 34,496 35,508 36,769 Growth 632 1,205 831 936 886 1,009 1,028 1,135 1,240 1,166 1,139 1,102 1,012 1,261 Percent 2.8% 5.3% 3.5% 3.8% 3.4% 3.8% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.8% 3.5% 3.3% 2.9% 3.6% 1,998 2,030 2,088 2,121 2,169 2,215 2,265 2,323 2,400 2,494 2,563 2,652 2,732 2,938 Roll-up Prev Cohort 3-Year Cohort 1,002 1,002 1,002 2,121 2,155 2,164 2,121 2,199 2,171 2,165 2,138 2,181 2,054 2,080 2,077 2,064 2,085 2,079 2,110 2,121 2,133 2,060 2,071 2,051 1,930 1,939 1,962 1,887 1,886 1,898 1,767 1,910 1,915 1,822 1,765 1,707 1,772 1,701 1,692 1,609 1,561 1,561 26,484 26,613 26,593 693 822 802 1st 1.04 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.03 2nd 1.06 0.99 1.02 1.01 0.99 1.02 3rd 1.04 0.98 1.02 1.00 1.01 1.02 4th 1.04 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 5th 1.04 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.02 6th 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.01 1.00 7th 1.03 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.00 1.02 8th 1.02 1.02 1.03 0.99 1.00 1.01 9th 1.19 1.15 1.09 1.08 1.08 1.08 10th 0.80 0.86 0.91 0.93 0.97 0.96 11th 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.94 0.96 0.95 12th 0.96 0.95 1.00 0.94 0.97 0.97 YEAR 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 KG 1.06 0.97 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.02 14
