Analysis of State Budget Trends by John Gilbert - Nov. 1, 2020

This comprehensive analysis by John Gilbert, a Budget and Revenue Analyst, delves into the multiyear trend of state budget outlook, general revenue fund trends, sources, growth, and projections. The analysis includes comparisons between revenue and expenditures, trend-based revenue projections, growth of major revenue sources, and projections of the General Revenue Fund as a percentage of total tax collections based on historical data.

• Budget Analysis
• Revenue Trends
• John Gilbert
• State Budget
• Financial Projections

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1. State Budget Outlook Multiyear Trend Analysis John Gilbert OMES Budget and Revenue Analyst Nov. 1, 2020

2. General revenue fund trends General revenue fund trends Revenue vs. expenditures (in millions)

3. General revenue fund sources General revenue fund sources Trend-based projections (in millions)

4. General revenue growth General revenue growth Five major sources (in millions, with % of change from prior year) Total growth: Personal income tax, Corporate income tax, Gross production gas, Sales tax, Motor vehicle tax

5. Projections of GRF as a percentage of total tax Projections of GRF as a percentage of total tax collections collections ACTUALS PROJECTIONS PROJECTIONS USE AVERAGE RATES OF CHANGE CALCULATED FOR TOTAL APPORTIONED AND GRF COLLECTIONS FROM PRIOR 12 YEARS