Key Revisions and Outlook for Soy Complex in November WASDE Report

Significant revisions in the November WASDE report include reduced soybean yield and production for the United States, leading to lower ending stocks and higher prices. Global stocks also see a decrease, with changes in production forecasts for Argentina and EU. The pre-release estimates suggest adjustments in soybean yield, production, and ending stocks for the US. Additionally, insights on soy complex usage breakdown for the marketing year and long-term demand projections highlight a rise in world soybean demand compared to the previous year.

• Soy Complex
• November WASDE
• US Soybean
• Global Stocks
• Production Forecasts

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1. November 10 WASDE Recap Mac Marshall, VP Market Intelligence, USB/USSEC

2. Key Revisions to Soy Complex for November United States 20/21 1. International 20/21 1. Yield revised down by 1.2 bu/ac to 50.7 bu/ac net impact is 98 m bu (2.7 MMT) reduction in crop size to 4.170 b bu (113.5 MMT) Ending stocks revised down by 100 m bu (2.7 MMT) to 190 m bu (5.2 MMT) approx. 15 days use; lowest since MY 13/14 Marketing year avg price revised up by $0.60/bu to $10.40/bu highest estimate since July 2014 SBM price up by $20/ST to $335/ST SBO price up $2/CWT to $34.50/CWT World ending stocks revised down 2.18 MMT to 86.52 MMT (51 day carryout lowest since MY 12/13) China inventories up 1.1 MMT on higher 19/20 imports and carryout to 20/21 No revisions to Brazilian production; Argentina production revised down 2.5 MMT to 51 MMT Argentine crush revised down by 2 MMT EU SBM imports down 800 TMT; soybean imports up 500 TMT 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. Data Source: USDA PSD, updated November 2020.

3. November 10 WASDE Prerelease Estimates US Soybean Yield US Soybean Production 70 6.0 60 5.0 52.5 52.1 51.9 51.6 51.5 50.8 50.700 4.32 4.288 4.268 4.251 4.241 49.4 4.189 4.170 4.084 50 Bushels per Acre 4.0 Billion Bushels 40 3.0 30 2.0 20 1.0 10 0 0.0 USDA October Lowest trade estimate Average trade estimate Highest trade estimate USDA November USDA October Lowest trade estimate Average trade estimate Highest trade estimate USDA November Predicting USDA Analyst View Predicting USDA Analyst View Source: Refinitiv, USDA

4. November 10 WASDE Prerelease Estimates US Soybean Ending Stocks - 20/21 World Soybean Ending Stocks - 20/21 0.700 120.00 0.600 100.00 89.00 89.00 88.70 87.52 87.44 86.52 84.00 84.00 Million Metric Tonnes 0.500 80.00 Billion Bushels 0.400 60.00 0.31 0.292 0.290 0.300 0.235 0.229 40.00 0.190 0.190 0.200 0.106 20.00 0.100 - - USDA October Lowest trade Average trade estimate Highest trade estimate USDA November USDA October Lowest trade Average trade estimate Highest trade estimate USDA November estimate estimate Predicting USDA Analyst View Predicting USDA Analyst View Source: Refinitiv, USDA

5. US Soy Complex Usage Breakdown for MY 20/21 US Soybean Distribution - MY 20/21 (November Update) US Soybean Complex by End Market Use - MY 20/21 (November) 140.0 80.0 100% 73.3 94% 0.4 3.8 90% 120.0 70.0 12.2 80% 59.9 60% 100.0 60.0 59.3 34.7 70% 80.0 49.0 MMT 1.2 50.0 113.5 10.4 60% 60.0 MMT 40.0 50% 34.7 40.0 59.9 40% 30.0 20.0 30% 14.2 26% 20.0 5.2 - 12.2 20% 10.4 10.0 10% 10% 3.8 1.2 - 0% Whole Bean SBM SBO Complex Domestic Use Exports Export Share Data Sources: USDA PSD Tables as of November 2020 WASDE Report End Market Use is defined as the point of consumption once soybeans or co-products have left the US processing chain. For this reason and to avoid double counting, US crush is shown on a co-product (not whole bean) basis.

6. Long-Term Demand Pace Based on the November 2020 WASDE estimates putting world whole soybean demand for MY 20/21 at 369.0 MMT: World demand is up 15.2 MMT YOY, outpacing 10-year trend* of +11.5 MMT/yr US demand is up 1.1 MMT YOY, in line with 10-year trend Ex-US demand is up 14.0 MMT YOY, outpacing 10-year trend of +10.3 MMT/yr World Soybean Consumption 350,000 90.0% 80.0% 300,000 70.0% 250,000 60.0% 1,000 MT 200,000 50.0% 40.0% 150,000 30.0% 100,000 20.0% 50,000 10.0% 0 0.0% US Consumption Ex-US Consumption Ex-US Share (Right Axis) Data Source: USDA PSD, updated November 2020. *MY 2009/10 MY 2019/20

7. Long-Term Perspective - China 19/20 China imports, inventories revised up by 1 MMT in November Increased carryout from 19/20 drives higher 20/21 carryout China Soybean Imports and Crush 120 100 98.533 94.095 100 82.54 Million Metric Tonnes 80 60 40 20 0 Imports Crush Ending Stocks Data Source: USDA PSD, updated November 2020.

8. Long-Term Perspective - Brazil 20/21 Brazilian production, exports unchanged in November Production expected to reach 133 MMT for 20/21 on increased plantings (CONAB: 135 MMT) Brazil Soybeans 140 80.0% 70.0% 120 60.0% Million Metric Tonnes 100 50.0% 80 40.0% 60 30.0% 40 20.0% 20 10.0% - 0.0% Production Exports % Exported (Right Axis) Data Source: USDA PSD, updated November 2020.