Balancing Future Revisions and Resources in National Statistical Offices
Discussion on the challenges of implementing the 2008 SNA, including issues with data reliability, funding, and political support. Emphasis on the importance of cost-benefit analysis in guiding future revisions to ensure the relevance and consistency of national account data across countries.
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Balancing the Need of Future Revisions with resources of the the National Statistical Offices By Robert P. Parker, Consultant on Federal Statistics Discussant: Kirsten Wismer, Statistics Denmark
Background After 2008 SNA International Comparability? Use of less than reliable source data? Quality of the quarterly National Accounts Funding Never good General tendency to reduce government spending Process for SNA 95 and 2008 SNA did not include cost and available data Use of cost-benefit analysis to select new changes Purpose To remain National Account data relevant and more consistent between countries 2
Implementation of 2008 SNA Major priority for UNSC Timely and comprehensive implementation Goal is the complete SNA in all countries Efforts to follow up in the implementation UN Guidelines to monitor results? UN-Friend of the chair concerning the 1993 SNA (2012) - Limited political support and unavailability of basic economic statistics ISWGNA March 2015 - NA-data in almost all member states but only 55% with a time lag of T-1 - Only 45% provide minimum data - 1993 SNA or 2008 SNA implemented with conceptual compl. in 85% - A number of member states only partly introduced 2008 SNA Missing implementation information on important changes R&D is implemented widespread, but is very difficult to implement - Split between volume and prices, reliable source data and timeliness Goods sent abroad for processing - Need for new data - how does the countries implement this? 3
Funding of statistical programs Never good but it seems worsening Examples from USA, UK, Canada and Australia Official statistics and big data? Cost of implementation needs to be given more consideration in the future revisions of the SNA In USA new data collections must be approved by the Office of Management and Budget Require a formal cost-benefit or regulatory impact analysis To determine whether benefits justify the costs 4
A cost-benefit analysis for SNA changes? Partly included in the Research Agenda of the 2008 SNA How urgent and important to ensure that the SNA continues to stay relevant? - benefit for users How widespread are the consequences of change and how complicated will implementation be? - costs of developing new estimates Is the topic completely new or has much of the preparation for considering the item been completed? - benefit of having existing estimates such as those prepared for a satellite account Widespread consultation and involvement of both compilers and users - people with experience with the change provide advice on costs and benefits But do not deal with issue of what constitutes implementation of a change Are new data sources needed for the change - Annual - Quarterly Necessary requirement for calculate the cost of a change 5
Recommendations Expand reporting of the implementation of 2008 SNA on major changes - Timeliness and reliability of the source data - Estimation methods of benchmarks, annual and quarterly estimates both current prices and volume Identify changes from 2008 SNA or previous for example illegal production - Have the implementation improved relevance? - Have the implementation improves international comparability? - Identify changes for rescission or move to a satellite account Next SNA revisions - Expand reporting as under first bullit - Be more concrete in defining implementation - specify major changes and use key aggregates Further SNA revisions - Conduct cost benefit analysis for each proposed changes - Used them to make the priority of wishes 6
Comments International comparability? - EU: implementation by law, Eurostat follows up - UN: do we lack a forum for those who have hands on regarding? Should it be an ongoing activity and not only for the next SNA? Shall we develop a quality assessment system and not only concentrate on the new changes - to help our users to understand the National Accounts data? More extensive use of satellite accounts and consider elimination of parts that have not been well implemented. - How shall we explain that a more simple system will be a better tool in a more complicated world? - Will the core National Accounts stay relevant? I support your idea of taking new sources into account - How shall we involve statisticians from other statistical subjects to discuss new changes in the NA? - How can we secure that the speed on introducing new concepts will not be decided by the slowest country? How compare cost and benefits world wide? 7
