Presented to Almost 7:30 Dem Club

Examining the CSLI Spring 2016 survey data reveals trends in public opinion on various key areas including economic conditions, public policy proposals, media information, job approval, voter preferences, and more. The survey covers a range of topics from taxes and crime to education and transportation, providing a comprehensive overview of public sentiment over the years.

• Survey insights
• Public opinion
• Economic conditions
• Voter preferences

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1. CSLI Survey Spring 2016 Presented to Almost 7:30 Dem Club April 15, 2016

2. CSLI Sping 2016 Survey - Overview Administered March 25-April 1 566 completions 310 Telephone 6-8:45 p.m. 256 Online Web panel 64 students as telephone interviewers, 3 interns monitoring and supervising the field work 67 questions completed both by public and students

3. CSLI Spring 2016 Survey - Overview Main areas General direction, key problems Economic conditions Public policy proposals - agreement Media information about state and local Politics Job approval Voters candidate preferences, issues/character Personality and politics Demographics and voter candidate preferences

4. County: Most Important Question? Spring 08 to Spring 16 Graph 1: Most Important Problem Spring 2008 to Spring 2016 60 50 48 48 40 38 36 36 35 33 30 30 28 27 25 23 23 22 20 20 19 19 18 17 17 16 16 16 15 14 12 10 12 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 8 8 8 8 87 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 4 6 4 6 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 0 Sp '08 Fa '08 Sp '09 Fa '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '11 Fa '11 Sp '12 Fa '12 Sp '13 Fa '13 Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp '15 Fa '15 Sp '16 Taxes too high Crime / drugs* Economy Education Transportation Growth / development

5. Most Important Problem: Public vs Students Public Students Public- Students -11 4 -5 6 -1 4 1 0 3 1 Crime / drugs 20 12 11 11 8 7 6 8 18 101 31 8 16 5 9 3 5 8 15 100 Taxes too high Economy Growth / development Education / school problems Traffic congestion/ problems Environment Unsure/no answer Other answer Total

6. County: Right/Wrong Direction - Fall 09 to Spring 16 County, State, Nation - Fall 12 to Spring 16 Graph 2: Right/Wrong Direction for Anne Arundel County, Fall 2009 to Spring 2016 70 60 58 55 52 52 51 50 50 50 50 50 49 49 49 47 43 41 40 38 36 35 33 33 32 30 28 28 28 27 27 25 24 23 22 22 22 21 21 20 20 18 17 17 16 16 14 13 10 Right direction Wrong direction Unsure/NA 0 Fa 09 Sp 10 Fa 10 Sp 11 Fa 11 Sp 12 Fa 12 Sp 13 Fa 13 Sp 14 Fa 14 Sp 15 Fa 15 Sp '16

7. Right/Wrong Direction: County, State, Nation - Fall 12 to Spring 16 70 60 55 58 52 51 50 50 50 50 49 49 47 40 36 35 35 31 30 27 27 27 24 23 21 21 20 10 10 0 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '13 Spring '14 Fall '14 Spring '15 Fall '15 Spring '16 Nation State County State direction Right Wrong Unsure Total Hogan Approve 58 25 17 100 Hogan Disapprove 28 61 11 100 Nation direction Right Wrong Unsure Total Obama Approve 43 39 18 100 Obama Disapprove 3 91 6 100

8. Economic Conditions: County, State, Nation % Excellent+Good Spring 2009 to Spring 2016 70 65 64 60 57 53 52 51 50 50 49 49 48 48 48 46 45 45 44 44 41 40 40 40 38 35 33 33 32 31 30 30 30 28 27 27 24 21 21 20 16 16 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 5 0 County Sp 13 State Country Sp '09 Fa 09 Sp 10 Fa 10 Sp 11 Fa 11 Sp 12 Fa 12 Fa 13 Sp 14 Fa 14 Sp 15 Fa 15 Sp '16

9. Economic Conditions: % Saying Applies Economic Conditions - % Saying "Applies" Fall '14 to Spring '16 80 74 70 66 63 62 59 58 57 60 54 50 45 41 40 39 39 38 38 37 40 34 33 33 33 32 31 30 28 30 17 20 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 10 0 Taxes are too high in relation to the govt. services provided Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living Hard to afford the cost of education Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently Hard to afford the cost of food and groceries Found a new or better job recently Facing the possibility of unemployment Fall '14 Spring '15 Fall '15 Spring '16

10. Economic Conditions - Applies Condition Public- Stds Public Students Taxes are too high in relation to the govt. services provided Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living Hard to afford the cost of education 59 58 1 58 39 38 47 44 40 11 -5 -2 Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently Hard to afford the cost of food and groceries 32 31 1 30 10 9 25 20 11 5 Found a new or better job recently -10 -2 Facing the possibility of unemployment

11. Income and Economic Conditions - % Applies Under $75k- Over 75K Condition $75,000+ Under $75,000 Hard to afford cost of food and groceries* 47 20 27 Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate* 47 33 14 Hard to afford the cost of education* 43 35 8 Taxes are too high in relation to the government services provided* 62 54 8 Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living 61 56 5 Facing the possibility of unemployment 8 9 -1 -6 Found a new or better job recently* 6 12 Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently* 20 40 -20

12. Proposal Agreement Public Students Public- Stds Maintain the current ban on roadside panhandling by all nonprofit groups Provide body cameras to all local police. Start the school year after Labor Day rather than before. Reduce the time devoted to state-required testing of students in public schools. Replace the school board nominating commission by an elected school board. President Obama and the Senate should take action now to fill the vacancy on the US Supreme Court, rather than wait until next year. A law making it possible for severely ill individuals to get a doctor s prescription that can help end their lives. Reduce the significance of state-required test results as a part of teacher evaluations. Raise the federal minimum wage to $15 over the next few years. Federal support providing free tuition for community college and public universities. Always include at least one African-American on the county s school board. A law allowing felons to vote before finishing with probation or parole rather than after. 71 69 65 59 51 20 63 49 6 16 52 7 57 48 9 57 54 3 50 39 11 50 47 45 43 7 48 -1 52 -7 39 44 -5 18 17 -1

13. Proposals by Party Registration -3 -23 Raise the federal minimum wage to $15 over the next few years. 24 President Obama and the Senate should take action now to fill the 3 -26 vacancy on the US Supreme Court, rather than wait until next year. 22 Federal support providing free tuition for community college and public universities. 0 -24 20 A law allowing felons to vote before finishing with probation or parole rather than after. -2 -18 18 Always include at least one African-American on the county s school board. -9 -22 15 A law making it possible for severely ill individuals to get a doctor s prescription that can help end their lives. 2 -8 7 Reduce the significance of state-required test results as a part of teacher evaluations. 6 -6 5 0 -2 Provide body cameras to all local police. 2 Reduce the time devoted to state-required testing of students in public schools. 9 -3 2 Replace the school board nominating commission by an elected school board. -12 5 -1 -5 6 Start the school year after Labor Day rather than before. -2 Maintain the current ban on roadside panhandling by all nonprofit groups -2 8 -3 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Unaffiliated Reps Dems

14. Economic Conditions and Candidates Cruz Kasich Trump Average Condition Clinton Sanders Hard to afford cost of food and groceries 45 13 51 30 22 20 Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate 36 36 57 39 28 38 Hard to afford the cost of education 38 33 38 39 29 57 Taxes are too high in relation to the government services provided 75 65 70 58 44 37 Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living 65 51 69 60 49 64 Facing the possibility of unemployment 8 17 6 11 7 17 Found a new or better job recently 15 10 6 11 10 12 Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently 38 41 23 35 29 45

15. Information Sources: State and Local % 82 71 69 52 42 Television programming or nightly news Radio broadcasts or news Newspapers or news magazines either print or online Other online sources Social media like Facebook or Twitter Media Source and Age Group 70 58 57 57 60 55 52 47 50 46 45 40 39 38 40 35 33 33 31 31 29 28 30 24 23 21 21 20 20 19 18 18 20 15 12 11 10 0 Television programming or nightly news Radio broadcasts or news Newspapers or news magazines either print or online Other online sources Social media like Facebook or Twitter 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+

16. Trust in Various Media Types 35 32 30 30 25 20 16 14 15 10 7 5 0 Television programming or nightly news Newspapers or news magazines either print or online Radio broadcasts or news Other online sources Social media like Facebook or Twitter

17. Most Trustworthy News Sources Newpapers WASH. POST CAPITAL/GAZETTE NY TIMES BALT. SUN WSJ Cases 42 39 22 16 13 TV FOX CNN NBC (wbal) BBC MSNBC Cases 42 37 25 18 15 Social Media TWITTER AAPD FACEBOOK SM GEN. Cases 2 1 1 1 Radio NPR WTOP 680AM WAMU WYPR Cases 42 8 4 2 2 Online MSN ONLINE GEN. CNN.COM HUFF. POST GOOGLE NEWS Cases 5 5 3 3 2

18. Job Approval: Hogan, Schuh, Obama 80 Hogan 73 71 70 60 56 Neuman 54 50 50 46 Schuh 45 43 44 40 39 38 37 32 33 Obama 30 27 O'Malley 20 County Executive Governor President 10 After 2014 Elections 0 Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp '15 Fa '15 Sp '16

19. Job Approval: Obama CSLI/Gallup Presidential Job Approval - CSLI and Gallup 70 61 60 54 52 50 50 50 49 49 47 47 47 47 47 46 46 45 45 44 44 43 43 42 42 40 40 40 40 39 38 37 37 35 32 32 30 28 30 25 24 20 10 0 F '07 S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '13 S '14 F '14 S '15 F '15 S '16 CSLI Gallup

20. Obama Job Approval by Party Reg. Presidential Job Approval by Party Registration Fall 09 to Spring 16 Presidential Job Approval by Party and Ideology, Fall 2015 and Spring 2016 80 93 100 76 76 75 90 89 73 72 71 90 70 70 70 67 76 66 66 80 62 61 64 70 60 61 57 54 60 53 53 53 50 44 49 50 47 40 39 46 40 30 27 40 38 24 30 37 36 36 35 34 34 33 14 13 20 30 6 10 1 0 24 24 0 20 18 17 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 0 Fa '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '11 Fa '11 Sp '12 Fa '12 Sp '13 Fa '13 Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp '15 Fa '15 Sp '16 Democrat Fa '15 Democrat Sp '16 Republican Fa '15 Republican Sp '16 Unaffiliated Fa '15 Unaffiliated Sp '16 Dem Unaffil. Rep

21. Trust in Political Parties Trust in Political Parties, Spring 2008 to Spring 2016 45 42 40 39 38 38 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 36 35 34 34 34 34 34 34 33 33 33 32 32 32 31 32 31 31 31 30 31 30 30 29 29 28 27 28 28 26 26 25 23 23 21 21 21 21 20 20 17 17 15 Sp '08 Fa '08 Sp '09 Fa 09 Sp 10 Fa 10 Sp 11 Fa 11 Sp 12 Fa 12 Sp 13 Fa 13 Sp 14 Fa 14 Sp 15 Fa 15 Sp '16 Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated

22. Candidate Preference - President Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated Fall 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2015 Spring 2016 47 (60%) Spring 2016 3 Spring 2016 19 Democrats Hillary Clinton 34 1 15 27 28 (40% 3 2 21 26 Bernie Sanders Republicans 8 -- 32 -- 13 -- Ben Carson 0 2 3 16 (22%) 2 6 Ted Cruz 3 -- 5 -- 8 -- Carly Fiorina 4 1 4 22 (29%) 5 9 John Kasich 1 -- 13 -- 5 -- Marco Rubio 7 6 21 34 (49%) 17 13 Donald Trump 16 15 18 24 14 26 Others/None Monmouth Poll of MD: Trump 47%, Kasich 27%, Cruz 17%. NBC/Marist poll Clinton 58% Sanders 36%

23. Candidate Preference by Party Registration and Ideology 18% 70 64 60 58% 24% 35% 4% 34% 62% 52% 13% 53 50 48 50 44 43 38 38 40 37 33 32 30 28 30 26 25 25 24 23 23 21 20 20 17 16 15 14 14 14 10 10 9 8 10 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Liberal Moderate Conservative Liberal Moderate Conservative Liberal Moderate Conservative Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated Clinton Sanders Cruz Kasich Trump None

24. Hypothetical Trump vs. Clinton Match-up Overall Dems Rep Unaffiliat ed 28 35 (43%) 11 70 Donald Trump 46 (57%) 76 11 46 Hillary Clinton 14 8 13 21 Neither or third party 5 5 6 5 No answer 100 100 100 100 Total

25. Character and Republican Candidates Character Aspects: Cruz, Kasich, Trump 1 23 Reasonable demeanor 12 12 18 Honest, trustworthy 14 0 15 Experience/track record 3 4 11 qualified 8 5 9 Electable 8 1 8 Problem solver 0 0 2 Anti-Trump 3 0 2 Knowledge 0 6 0 Authentic, down to earth 0 11 0 Business record 0 12 0 Not politically correct, 0 18 0 Independent of establishment 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Trump Kasich Cruz

26. Issues and Republican Candidates 14 2 Agree with policies/plans/vision 20 7 0 Economics 0 0 6 Change 0 0 0 3 Anti-corporate - greed, corruption 3 0 0 Morality 3 0 Environment/CC 0 0 3 Budget 0 0 0 0 Education 0 0 0 Minimum Wage, college, healthcare 0 0 0 Equality 0 0 0 Women - gender 0 0 0 Middle class helps 0 0 0 Foreign affairs 3 0 0 Constitutionalist 18 5 Party/Ideology Label 8 0 5 10 15 20 25 Trump Kasich Cruz

27. Character and Democratic Candidates Characer Aspects - Clinton and Sanderse 4 Experience/track record 35 3 Electable 11 0 qualified 10 1 Reasonable demeanor 6 14 Honest, trustworthy 4 2 Knowledge 3 3 Problem solver 3 1 Anti-Trump 2 2 Authentic, down to earth 1 1 Not politically correct, 1 0 Business record 0 1 Independent of establishment 0 Sanders Clinton 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

28. Issues and Democratic Candidates Issues and Democratic Candidates 24 Agree with policies/plans/vision 7 9 Anti-corporate - greed, corruption 0 7 Middle class helps 1 4 Minimum Wage, college, healthcare 0 4 Equality 0 4 Party/Ideology Label 2 2 Environment/CC 0 1 Morality 0 1 Change 0 1 Education 1 1 Economics 1 1 Foreign affairs 5 0 Budget 0 0 Constitutionalist 0 0 Women - gender 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Sanders Clinton

29. Personality and Politics First term Kind Hardworking Sympathetic Tolerant Neat An intellectual Outgoing Calm Philosophical Extroverted Relaxed 1 63 62 52 47 41 39 38 38 37 31 31 2 25 25 28 28 28 33 27 32 33 26 26 3 10 8 13 18 19 19 20 20 23 24 28 4 1 3 4 4 9 3 11 7 4 11 11 5 1 2 2 3 3 5 4 3 4 9 5 Second term Unkind Lazy Unsympathetic Intolerant Sloppy Not an intellectual Shy Nervous Unreflective Introverted Tense

30. Personality and Politics Kind/Sympathetic (Agreeableness), Hardworking/Neat (Conscientiousness) and Voting Choices Clinton, Cruz 80 74 Kasich, Trump 72 69 66 70 59 59 56 56 60 55 51 50 49 49 46 46 46 50 44 41 38 40 30 Sanders 22 20 10 0 Kind Sympathetic Hardworking Neat Clinton Sanders Cruz Kasich Trump

31. Personality and Politics Tolerance and Voting Choices 70 63 58 60 50 41 40 35 30 25 20 10 0 Clinton Sanders Cruz Kasich Trump

32. Personality and Politics Calm/Relaxed (Emotional Stability) and Intellectual/Philosophical (Openness to Experience) 60 Kasich Clinton, Cruz 49 48 50 43 Clinton 40 40 39 38 40 36 35 35 34 33 32 29 29 Cruz 28 30 27 Cruz 25 22 21 20 10 0 Calm Relaxed An intellectual Philosophical Clinton Sanders Cruz Kasich Trump

33. Personality and Politics Extroversion (Outgoing/Extroverted) and Voting Choices 50 Trump Trump 44 45 Clinton 42 40 40 Clinton 35 34 35 31 30 23 25 22 Sanders 20 19 20 15 10 5 0 Outgoing Extroverted Clinton Sanders Cruz Kasich Trump

34. Demographics and Candidate Choice Preference and Gender 25 19 20 Clinton 14 13 15 10 6 5 0 0 Sanders 0 Men Women -5 -6 -10 -13 -13 -15 -20 Trump -19 Cruz -25 Clinton Sanders Cruz Kasich Trump

35. Demographics and Candidate Choice Presidential Candidates and Marital Status 15 13 11 10 10 Sanders 7 5 4 5 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 Single Married Divorced Widow Living together -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -4 -4 -6 -7 -8 -8 -10 Kasich -10 -15 Clinton Sanders Cruz Kasich Trump

36. Demographics and Candidate Choice Candidate Preference and Race 15 Clinton 12 10 4 4 5 2 0 0 White Black -3 -4 -5 -6 Clinton -8 -8 -10 Clinton Sanders Cruz Kasich Trump

37. Demographics and Candidate Choice Presidential Candidates and Income Groups 25 21 20 Cruz Kasich 16 Cruz 15 12 10 Clinton 7 5 3 3 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 $0-50 $50-75k $75-100k -2 $100-150k -1 Over $150k -1 -2 -3 -3 -5 -4 -6 -6 -10 -9 -11 -11 -11 -15 Clinton Sanders Cruz Kasich Trump

38. Demographics and Candidate Choice Presidential Candidates and Education Clinton, Sanders, Kasich 15 11 Sanders Trump Kasich Cruz, Trump 10 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 5 3 1 0 0 0 HS diploma or less Some college 2 year degree 4 year degree Post graduate -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -5 -6 -6 -10 -9 -11 -15 -16 Clinton Sanders Cruz Kasich Trump -20

39. Demographics and Candidate Choice Presidential Candidates and Religion 25 Cruz 21 18 20 Kasich 14 15 Trump Sanders 11 10 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 -6 -7 -8 -8 -10 -9 -9 -9 -15 -16 -20 Clinton Sanders Cruz Kasich Trump

40. Candidates and Issues Clinton 13.0 14.4 3.2 3.9 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 49.8 Sanders 14.9 2.6 12.6 0.0 3.0 1.1 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 1.1 5.2 3.3 1.9 2.2 5.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 72.5 Carson 4.6 6.0 0.7 3.9 3.9 6.7 0.0 1.1 4.6 0.0 1.1 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 4.2 47.4 Trump 12.5 4.0 0.0 7.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 49.0 Rubio 8.8 37.4 0.0 0.0 2.2 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 58.2 Economy Foreign policy Inequality Immigration Spending, debt Constitution Liberal Taxes, lower Health Care Business pro Womens issues Party Crime/safety Education Environment Smaller govt, less regs. Guns Anti-corporate Abortion - anti Conservative Military Religion - pro Other Total

41. Candidates and Issues Clinton 11.6 Sanders 4.8 Carson 7.4 Trump 13.5 Rubio 9.9 Leadership, competence Honest, trustworthy, independent 5.3 4.2 0.7 17.9 0.0 0.0 5.6 1.9 1.9 0.0 3.7 1.1 9.5 9.1 11.9 0.0 3.9 3.5 3.5 5.5 10.5 0.0 4.0 9.5 8.8 3.3 3.3 0.0 4.4 0.0 Consensus builder Fresh face, change Experience America first Hard truths, frank Working people, cares 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 50.2 4.5 1.9 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.1 27.5 0.0 0.0 2.8 1.4 2.1 1.1 52.6 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 51.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 7.7 41.8 Middle class Ethical Character Electable Intelligence Total