Canadian Potato Yield Predictions for 2050
Explore the future average yields of Canadian potatoes in 2050, examining predictions based on historical data and linear regression models. Dive into the significance of potato production in Canada's economy and the challenges faced in meeting global food demands.
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Presentation Transcript
Can I feed the world? Fortune Teller Project Fortune Teller Project What will average yields of Canadian potatoes be in 2050?
Why? Potatoes are a staple in the diet of Canadians Potato sector plays a major role in the Canadian economy and employment In 2016, farm cash receipts exceeded $1.2 billion To support growing global population, the challenge is for farmers to produce more potatoes on smaller acreages Source: Statistics Canada (CANSIM Table 002-0001)
Figure 1: Average yield of potatoes in Canada from 1908 to 2019 Source: Statistics Canada, Table: 32-10-0358-01 (formerly CANSIM 001-0014)
Figure 2: A second opinion average yield of potatoes in Canada from 1908 to 2016. Source: Stats Blue Software http://stats.blue/Stats_Suite/polynomial_regression_calculator.html
Prediction for 2050 Based on calculation, estimation for 2050 is 71848 hwt/acre WHAT?! Not a reliable prediction This assumes there will be drastic changes in production in the next three decades, which is unlikely. Today s potato production is a well-oiled machine with fertilizer, pesticide and other inputs used to optimize yield. Closely examining the graph suggest that there might be two relationships at play
Figure 3: Average yield of potatoes in Canada from 1908 to 2019 Two linear functions instead? Source: Statistics Canada, Table: 32-10-0358-01 (formerly CANSIM 001-0014)
Figure 4: Average yield of potatoes in Canada from 1940 to 2019
NEW Prediction for 2050 Based on linear regression model based on data collected from 1940 to 2019, prediction becomes 401.6 hwt/acre This answer is more logical and better reflects currently realities of farmers. Farmers are improving yield, but at a more modest rate.
