Exploring Changes in Park Hill Community Through Data Analysis
This report, submitted to the Urban Land Conservancy, presents the findings of a study conducted on the Park Hill Campus area. It explores the evolving trends and transformations within the community through the analysis of specific data points. The draft findings, updated in May 2021, shed light on the changing dynamics of the neighborhood, offering valuable insights for future urban development and planning initiatives.
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Park Hill Campus: Exploring Changes in the Community Through Data Draft Findings: April 5, 2021 Updated May 7, 2021 Submitted to the Urban Land Conservancy.
Inquiry Urban Land Conservancy has approached the Colorado Futures Center to support its efforts in re-envisioning the Johnson and Wales University Campus through a community assessment of the following areas that ULC believes will be supported by the proposed acquisition and redevelopment. This analysis will focus (to the extent data is available) at the most granular geographic level, so as to best understand what nuances exist across the study area, which includes the neighborhoods of East Colfax and South Park Hill. These findings are geared to tell the data story of the affordable housing needs with a specific lens on student enrollment and mobility rates, along with a high-level look at employment dynamics (especially in light of COVID) with respect to households being able to continue to afford living in the community.
Guide to This Presentation Summarizing Vulnerability in the Community Summary findings How things came to be The macro forces that have shaped the Denver region and its communities Exploring the Surrounding Community Who has and currently lives in East Colfax and South Park Hill The Workforce Picture Who are the workers and how are they faring The Housing Picture Housing price trends and implications for households The Housing Gap Housing unit needs summary Source: CFC
E 23rd Ave Study Area Colorado Blvd Reference Map: Park Hill contains of the following Census tracts: Yosemite St Colfax Ave 42.01 (west of Holly St) Quebec St 42.02 (east of Holly St) East Colfax contains the following Census tracts: 44.03 (north of East Colfax) 44.04 (south of East Colfax)
Summarizing Vulnerability in the Community EAST COLFAX RESIDENTS ARE VULNERABLE, WHILE SOUTH PARK HILL EXHIBITS MORE STABILITY HIGHER SHARE OF STUDENTS ARE FREE AND REDUCED LUNCH IN EAST COLFAX VS. SOUTH PARK HILL DOUBLING-UP IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WORKERS ARE VULNERABLE: APPROXIMATELY 4 IN 10 HOUSEHOLDS HAVE A WORKER IN A COVID-19 AFFECTED INDUSTRY FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS ( FRL FAMILIES), MARKET RENTS ARE THREE TIMES WHAT IS AFFORDABLE IN BOTH NEIGHBORHOODS
East Colfax has been in the crosshairs of gentrification for decades, while South Park Hill has not Households Vulnerable to & Experiencing Gentrification (East Colfax) 2016: Entire neighborhood exposed (total households ~4,400) 2019: Southern half of neighborhood still exposed (total ~2,500 Households) Study Area SPHC Gentrifying 2019 Gentrifiable 2019 Gentrifying 2016 Gentrifiable 2014 Source: CFC analysis, 2010-2014, 2012-2016 and 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates
Ashley, while has retained a larger share of FRL elementary students, the absolute count of FRL elementary students in South Park Hill has declined. Student Enrollment for East Colfax and South Park Hill Schools 1,200 9% Student Enrollment 1,000 14% 11% 800 10% 600 24% 400 36% 95% 28% 200 88% 83% 35% 34% 0 Ashley Elementary School Denver School of the Arts Odyssey School of Denver Park Hill School East Colfax South Park Hill 2009 Not FRL 2009 FRL 2013 Not FRL 2013 FRL 2020 Not FRL 2020 FRL Source: CFC calculations, Colorado Department of Education
In 2019, ~2,500 households in the study area were doubled-up representing potential masked demand for housing Park Hill Campus Study Area Estimate All Total households 7,094 Doubled-Up Share 15% Doubled-Up ~1,048 2006 2019 ~2,498 8,044 31% ~1,450 950 Change 2006-2019 Percent Change 2006-2019 138% 13% Of the almost 2,500 additional households ~1,557 (62%) are Family Doubled-Up ~941 are Non-Family Doubled-Up ~470 Adult Student Households ~49% Renters For more information on the doubling-up phenomenon: https://www.coloradofuturescsu.org/doubled-up-households-in-colorado/ Source: CFC analysis, 2006 and 2017 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (iPUMS), U.S. Census Bureau. Note: All figures are rounded.
Pre-COVID almost 1,800 households in East Colfax were estimated to have had a worker in an industry most impacted by COVID East Colfax Industry Sectors 2018 774 Health Care and Social Assistance 708 Accommodation and Food Services Administrative and Waste Services 471 Retail Trade Education Services Professional and Technical Services Construction Manufacturing Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Over 2,000 Workers Highly Vulnerable to Job Loss Estimated 1,780 Households Finance and Insurance Public Administration Other Services Information 116 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Management of Companies and Enterprises Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining Utilities 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 RAC WAC RAC = Resident Area Characteristics (workers who live in the area regardless of where they work) WAC = Workplace Area Characteristics (people who work in the area but do not necessarily live in the area) Source: CFC calculations, Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) 2018
Pre-COVID over 1,300 households in South Park Hill were estimated to have had a worker in an industry most impacted by COVID South Park Hill Industry Sectors 2018 731 Health Care and Social Assistance Professional and Technical Services Education Services 444 Accommodation and Food Services 294 Retail Trade Administrative and Waste Services Finance and Insurance Public Administration Construction Over 1,500 Workers Highly Vulnerable to Job Loss Estimated 1,355 Households Information Wholesale Trade Other Services Manufacturing Management of Companies and Enterprises Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing 107 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Mining Utilities Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 RAC WAC RAC = Resident Area Characteristics (workers who live in the area regardless of where they work) WAC = Workplace Area Characteristics (people who work in the area but do not necessarily live in the area) Source: CFC calculations, Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) 2018
Market rent in both neighborhoods approaching 3 times what is affordable to a free lunch qualified family 2021 Q1 $2,375 $2,178 $850 East Colfax Median Rent 3+ Bedroom South Park Hill Median Rent 3+ Bedroom Affordable Rent Payment for a Free Lunch Qualified Family of 4 Source: CFC calculations, Zillow Data, accessed March 2021
How Things Came to Be MACRO FORCES THAT HAVE SHAPED THE DENVER REGION AND ITS COMMUNITIES
How Things Came to Be Market Forces UNFAVORABLE LENDING Many households victim to sub-prime loans, ultimately leading to future vulnerability WEAK HOUSING PRODUCTION After the Great Recession, housing now greatly lagged that of the unexpected household growth vacancy rapidly declines LAST FRONTIER Many communities exposed to significant pressures of displacement, as few places remain affordable WAGES LAG HOMEPRICES Culmination of previous forces driving prices even higher, more cost-burdened or having to double-up SHAPING THE FUTURE Grappling with displacement and preparing for unknown impacts from the COVID crisis MASS FORECLOSURES Previous homeowners become renters, with banks holding large swaths of units 2020 2007 2009 2012 2015 2017 Source: CFC
As of 2016 East Colfax ranked in the top third of neighborhood foreclosures, while South Park Hill was in the middle Foreclosures per Household 2003-2016 60% 50% East Colfax, 20% 40% South Park Hill, 9% 30% 20% 10% 0% Speer Hilltop City Park Chaffee Park Globeville West Colfax Athmar Park Skyland Regis Indian Creek Highland Kennedy Mar Lee Villa Park Auraria Rosedale Wellshire Clayton Cole Sunnyside Harvey Park South Marston Goldsmith Belcaro North Capitol Hill Lowry Field North Park Hill Lincoln Park Cherry Creek Montclair City Park West Jefferson Park Five Points Congress Park Sun Valley Elyria Swansea Harvey Park East Colfax Overland Capitol Hill Southmoor Park Fort Logan Windsor Montbello Valverde Ruby Hill Berkeley Baker West Highland Civic Center Cheesman Park Union Station Washington Park Stapleton Westwood Northeast Park Hill Country Club Hale Barnum Bear Valley Hampden Washington Park West Barnum West Hampden South South Park Hill Washington Virginia Vale University University Park Virginia Village Source: CFC calculations, Denver Clerk & Recorder
Housing Affordability: Why Everyone Should Care In 2018 Denver County Households Spent an Additional: $430 Million on housing that could otherwise go to household purchases such as: food, children s shoes or school supplies, local businesses, etc. These purchases support local economic activity and therefore the local tax base. 15 Source: CFC
What does a household need to earn to pay its bills*? Monthly Dollars (Percentage of the Federal Poverty Level) Two Adults One Preschooler One School-Age $5,996 (287%) $6,272 (300%) $7,153 (342%) $6,503 (311%) $6,019 (288%) $6,966 (333%) $6,329 (303%) County One Adult One Preschooler One Adult Adams Arapahoe Boulder Broomfield Denver Douglas Jefferson $2,307 (228%) $2,423 (239%) $2,553 (252%) $2,493 (246%) $2,202 (218%) $2,788 (275%) $2,378 (235%) $4,472 (326%) $4,627 (337%) $5,006 (365%) $4,845 (353%) $4,438 (323%) $5,421 (382%) $4,647 (339%) *As measured by the Self-Sufficiency Standard 2018 Source: The Self-Sufficiency Standard for Colorado 2018 (http://www.selfsufficiencystandard.org/)
One Adult Household Denver County Household Income and Expenses 2018 Health Care 7% Food 13% Housing 49% Miscellaneous 7% H+T 57% Transportation 8% Taxes 17% $2,202/ month Source: The Self-Sufficiency Standard for Colorado 2018 (http://www.selfsufficiencystandard.org/)
One Adult One Preschooler Household Denver County Household Income and Expenses 2018 Health Care 8% Housing 28% Food 9% As compared to a single adult, once a child is introduced the household income needs to double. Transportation 3% Miscellaneous 8% H+T+C 60% Child Care 29% Taxes 15% $4,438/ month Source: The Self-Sufficiency Standard for Colorado 2018 (http://www.selfsufficiencystandard.org/)
Exploring the Surrounding Community WHO HAS AND CURRENTLY LIVES IN THE COMMUNITY: EAST COLFAX RESIDENTS ARE VULNERABLE, WHILE SOUTH PARK HILL EXHIBITS MORE STABILITY
Defining Gentrification In this analysis we relied on the definitions of gentrification and vulnerability to gentrification from the literature*. They are as follows: Vulnerability to gentrification ( gentrifiable ) is defined as: Tracts with the majority of households earning <60% Area Median Income (AMI) Gentrifying is defined as the criteria above and experiencing both: Above average increase in educational attainment Above average increase in either median rent, or median value *Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - Gentrification and Residential Mobility
East Colfax has been in the crosshairs of gentrification for decades, while South Park Hill has not Households Vulnerable to & Experiencing Gentrification (East Colfax) 2016: Entire neighborhood exposed (total households ~4,400) 2019: Southern half of neighborhood still exposed (total ~2,500 Households) Study Area SPHC Gentrifying 2019 Gentrifiable 2019 Gentrifying 2016 Gentrifiable 2014 Source: CFC analysis, 2010-2014, 2012-2016 and 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates
Over time residents are moving into the highest income category (regardless of where they work) East Colfax RAC Share of Workers by Earnings (2009-2018) South Park Hill RAC Share of Workers by Earnings (2009-2018) 70.0% 70.0% 60.0% 60.0% 50.0% 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% <$1,250/month $1,250-$3,333/month >$3,333/month <$1,250/month $1,250-$3,333/month >$3,333/month 2009 2018 2009 2018 RAC = Resident Area Characteristics (workers who live in the area regardless of where they work) Source: CFC calculations, Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) 2009 & 2018 (note: income values are not adjusted for inflation)
Overall, the race and ethnicity profiles did not change dramatically over time East Colfax RAC by Race/Ethnicity South Park Hill RAC by Race/Ethnicity 100.0% 100.0% 92.0% 91.9% 86.8% 86.6% 90.0% 90.0% 80.9% 79.1% 80.0% 80.0% 72.0% 68.9% 70.0% 70.0% 60.0% 60.0% 50.0% 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 20.9% 19.8% 19.8% 19.1% 20.0% 20.0% 8.3% 8.1% 8.0% 6.9% 10.0% 10.0% 6.5% 4.5% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 2.4% 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Black/ African American American Indian/ Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander Two or More White Not Hispanic/ Latino Black/ African American American Indian/ Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander Two or More White Not Hispanic/ Latino Hispanic/ Latino Hispanic/ Latino 2009 2018 2009 2018 RAC = Resident Area Characteristics (workers who live in the area regardless of where they work) Source: CFC calculations, Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) 2009 & 2017
Employment by race and ethnicity change within their group East Colfax Employment South Park Hill Employment 100% 80% 70% 80% 60% 50% 60% 40% 40% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% 0% White total Black totalAIAN totalAsian totalNHPI total Other total 2More total White NH total His Lat total White total Black total AIAN total Asian total NHPI total Other total 2More total White NH total His Lat total 2014 Employment 2019 Employment 2014 Employment 2019 Employment Source: CFC calculation from 2010-2014 and 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates
More households are doubling-up since 2006 Park Hill Campus Study Area Estimate All Total households 7,094 Doubled-Up Share 15% Doubled-Up ~1,048 2006 2019 ~2,498 8,044 31% ~1,450 950 Change 2006-2019 Percent Change 2006-2019 138% 13% Of the almost 2,500 additional households ~1,557 (62%) are Family Doubled-Up ~941 are Non-Family Doubled-Up For more information on the doubling-up phenomenon: https://www.coloradofuturescsu.org/doubled-up-households-in-colorado/ Source: CFC analysis, 2006 and 2019 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (iPUMS), U.S. Census Bureau. Note: All figures are rounded.
K12 Education Enrollment Changes: 2021 forecast had a 128 student decline across the two neighborhoods School FRL 2020-2021 5 2% - 21% 5 22% - 38% 5 39% - 55% 5 56% - 75% 5 76% - 98% Study Area SPHC Enrollment Forecast 2017-2021 Change -441 - -355 -354 - -68 -67 - 0 1 - 212 213 - 1577 Source: CFC calculations from 2017 DPS forecast, Colorado Department of Education
K12 Education Enrollment Changes: Enrollment projected to decline by 128 students in East Colfax and South Park Hill by 2021 however, actual enrollment is mixed across in the immediate surrounding schools South Park Hill Campus Area School Enrollment 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 Student Enrollment 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Ashley Elementary School Denver School of the Arts Odyssey School of Denver Park Hill School McAuliffe Int'l School Montclair School William (Bill) Roberts ECE-8 School DSST: Montview Middle School DSST: Montview High School East Colfax South Park Hill North Park Hill Montclair Central Park 2009 Not FRL 2009 FRL 2013 Not FRL 2013 FRL 2020 Not FRL 2020 FRL Source: CFC calculations, Colorado Department of Education
Student turnover becoming less volatile over time Annual Moblity Rate by School and District 60% 50% 40% 34% 30% 20% 10% 7% 0% 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 Denver Public Schools Average ASHLEY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DENVER SCHOOL OF THE ARTS THE ODYSSEY SCHOOL PARK HILL SCHOOL DSST: STAPLETON HIGH SCHOOL WILLIAM (BILL) ROBERTS K-8 SCHOOL DSST: STAPLETON MIDDLE SCHOOL DSST: COLE HIGH SCHOOL Source: CFC calculations, Colorado Department of Education
Ashley Elementary is the only school that retains a rate of turnover higher than the district Turnover Ratios by School 7.00 Ratio of Total Instances of Mobility to 2019-2020 Enromment 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Denver Public Schools Average ASHLEY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DENVER SCHOOL OF THE ARTS THE ODYSSEY SCHOOL PARK HILL SCHOOL DSST: STAPLETON HIGH SCHOOL WILLIAM (BILL) ROBERTS K-8 SCHOOL DSST: STAPLETON MIDDLE SCHOOL DSST: COLE HIGH SCHOOL East Colfax South Park Hill South Park Hill South Park Hill Stapleton Stapleton Stapleton Stapleton Turnover Ratio since 2014 Turnover Ratio since 2006 Source: CFC calculations, Colorado Department of Education
Early Education Facilities Over 6,000* licensed slots exist in the immediate market area surrounding the two neighborhoods, yet no facility exists in the eastern portion of South Park Hill *Note: some facilities have reported being closed, those of which are likely due to a response to COVID-induced closures of schools and could potentially reopen. - School FRL 2020-2021 5 2% - 21% 5 22% - 38% 5 39% - 55% 5 56% - 75% 5 76% - 98% Study Area SPHC Early Education Facility Enrollment Forecast 2017-2021 Change -441 - -355 -354 - -68 -67 - 0 1 - 212 213 - 1577 Source: CFC calculations from 2017 DPS forecast, Colorado Department of Education
The Workforce Picture WORKERS ARE VULNERABLE: APPROXIMATELY 4 IN 10 HOUSEHOLDS HAVE A WORKER IN A COVID-19 AFFECTED INDUSTRY PRE-COVID THE ECONOMIC SITUATION WAS IMPROVING FOR WORKERS IN SOUTH PARK HILL, BUT NOT IN EAST COLFAX
Over time workers in East Colfax are earning less, while in South Park Hill they are earning more East Colfax WAC Share of Workers by Earnings (2009-2018) South Park Hill WAC Share of Workers by Earnings (2009-2018) 50.0% 50.0% 45.0% 45.0% 40.0% 40.0% 35.0% 35.0% 30.0% 30.0% 25.0% 25.0% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% <$1,250/month $1,250-$3,333/month >$3,333/month <$1,250/month $1,250-$3,333/month >$3,333/month 2009 2018 2009 2018 WAC = Workplace Area Characteristics (people who work in the area but do not necessarily live in the area) Source: CFC calculations, Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) 2009 & 2018 (note: income values are not adjusted for inflation
East Colfax Black workers increased their share as offset by a decline in white workers, while South Park Hill remained stable East Colfax WAC by Race/Ethnicity South Park Hill WAC by Race/Ethnicity 90.0% 90.0% 80.0% 80.0% 70.0% 70.0% 60.0% 60.0% 50.0% 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Black/ African American American Indian/ Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander Two or More White Not Hispanic/ Latino Black/ African American American Indian/ Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander Two or More White Not Hispanic/ Latino Hispanic/ Latino Hispanic/ Latino 2009 2018 2009 2018 WAC = Workplace Area Characteristics (people who work in the area but do not necessarily live in the area) Source: CFC calculations, Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) 2009 & 2018
Area workers and resident workers are overwhelmingly in industries that have been most vulnerable to COVID- driven job losses Industry Representation 2018 East Colfax Industry Sectors 2018 Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Administrative and Waste Services Retail Trade Education Services Professional and Technical Services Construction Manufacturing Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Finance and Insurance Public Administration Other Services Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Management of Companies and Enterprises Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining Utilities 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 RAC WAC RAC = Resident Area Characteristics (workers who live in the area regardless of where they work) WAC = Workplace Area Characteristics (people who work in the area but do not necessarily live in the area) Source: CFC calculations, Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) 2018
Area workers and resident workers are overwhelmingly in industries that have been most vulnerable to COVID- driven job losses Industry Representation 2018 South Park Hill Industry Sectors 2018 Health Care and Social Assistance Professional and Technical Services Education Services Accommodation and Food Services Retail Trade Administrative and Waste Services Finance and Insurance Public Administration Construction Information Wholesale Trade Other Services Manufacturing Management of Companies and Enterprises Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Mining Utilities Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 RAC WAC RAC = Resident Area Characteristics (workers who live in the area regardless of where they work) WAC = Workplace Area Characteristics (people who work in the area but do not necessarily live in the area) Source: CFC calculations, Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics (LEHD) 2018
The Housing Picture HOUSING COSTS HAVE EFFECTIVELY DOUBLED IN BOTH NEIGHBORHOODS IN SOUTH PARK HILL, INCOMES HAVE LARGELY KEPT PACE, BUT IS NOT THE CASE IN EAST COLFAX FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS (FRL FAMILIES), MARKET RENTS ARE THREE TIMES WHAT IS AFFORDABLE IN BOTH NEIGHBORHOODS
In East Colfax the cost of purchasing a house is more than double that from less than a decade ago, while South Park Hill almost doubled Residential Median Sales 1996 2021 Q1 All Homes Values Seasonally Adjusted $1,000,000 $885,016 $900,000 +95% $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $452,097 $500,000 $412,424 $400,000 +170% $300,000 $153,222 $200,000 $100,000 $0 3/31/2018 2/29/2000 3/31/2011 7/31/2006 2/28/2007 1/31/2010 2/28/2014 1/31/2017 8/31/1996 4/30/2015 2/28/2021 5/31/1998 9/30/2000 6/30/2002 8/31/2003 10/31/2004 5/31/2005 9/30/2007 11/30/2008 8/31/2017 7/31/2020 12/31/1998 11/30/2001 1/31/2003 3/31/2004 6/30/2009 8/31/2010 9/30/2014 6/30/2016 5/31/2019 12/31/2005 10/31/2011 7/31/2013 11/30/2015 10/31/2018 7/31/1999 5/31/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2019 10/31/1997 4/30/2008 4/30/2001 1/31/1996 3/31/1997 East Colfax South Park Hill Source: CFC calculations, Denver Assessor, property sales 2021 Q1
Market rents remain affordable for South Park Hill residents earning the median, while East Colfax residents continue to be challenged Residential Rents 2014 2021 All Homes Rent Index & Affordable Rent $3,500 $3,000 $2,010 $2,500 $2,000 $1,301 $1,500 $1,608 $1,000 $1,044 $500 $0 2018-01 2018-03 2018-09 2015-05 2015-07 2018-05 2018-07 2015-09 2017-11 2015-01 2015-03 2015-11 2016-01 2016-03 2016-05 2016-09 2018-11 2019-01 2019-03 2019-05 2019-09 2021-01 2016-07 2019-07 2020-01 2014-03 2016-11 2019-11 2014-09 2017-01 2017-03 2020-07 2020-09 2014-01 2014-05 2017-05 2017-07 2020-03 2020-05 2014-07 2017-09 2014-11 2020-11 Rent Index Zip Code 80220 Affordable Rent for 42.02 (SPH) Rent Index Zip Code 80207 Affordable Rent for 44.03 (EC) Affordable Rent for 42.01 (SPH) Affordable Rent for 44.04 (EC) Median Inc 42.01 = Median income for Census tract 42.01, which is on the west side of South Park Hill Median Inc 42.02 = Median income for Census tract 42.02, which is on the east side of South Park Hill Median Inc 44.03 = Median income for Census tract 44.03, which is on the north side of E Colfax Ave Median Inc 44.04 = Median income for Census tract 44.04, which is on the south side of E Colfax Ave Source: CFC calculations, Zillow Data, accessed March 2021
Market rent in both neighborhoods approaching 3 times what is affordable to a free lunch qualified family 2021 Q1 $2,375 $2,178 $850 East Colfax Median Rent 3+ Bedroom South Park Hill Median Rent 3+ Bedroom Affordable Rent Payment for a Free Lunch Qualified Family of 4 Source: CFC calculations, Zillow Data, accessed March 2021
Both tracts in East Colfax lag the area median income, while South Park Hill has exceeded Median Household Incomes and Percentage of Area Median Income (AMI) $140,000 $120,000 136% AMI 132% AMI 157% AMI $100,000 $80,000 117% AMI 107% AMI 105% AMI $60,000 67% AMI $40,000 61% AMI 52% AMI 54% AMI 49% AMI $20,000 36% AMI $0 Tract 42.01 Tract 42.02 Tract 44.03 Tract 44.04 South Park Hill East Colfax 2009 Median 2014 Median 2019 Median Source: CFC calculations, 2005-2009, 2010-2014 and 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates, US Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
Predominant home purchases are by White, not-Hispanics East Colfax Mortgage Applications by Race 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 American Indian or Alaska Native Asian Black or African American Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander White 2 or more minority races Source: CFC calculations, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)
Predominant home purchases are by White, not-Hispanics South Park Hill Mortgage Applications by Race 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 American Indian or Alaska Native Asian Black or African American Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander White Source: CFC calculations, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)
Latinos represent 27% of the population, yet are only 8% of mortgage applications Wealth Building Disparity East Colfax Mortgage Applications by Ethnicity 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Hispanic or Latino Not Hispanic or Latino Source: CFC calculations, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)
Latinos represent 12% of the population, yet are only 4% of mortgage applications Wealth Building Disparity South Park Hill Mortgage Applications by Ethnicity 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Hispanic or Latino Not Hispanic or Latino Source: CFC calculations, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)
For investment properties: Hispanic applicants lag, but the gap was closing in the wake of the Great Recession East Colfax Share of Applications of not Owner Occupied by Ethnicity 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Hispanic or Latino Not Hispanic or Latino Source: CFC calculations, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)
For investment properties: Hispanic applicants lag, but the gap was closing in the wake of the Great Recession South Park Hill Share of Applications of not Owner Occupied by Ethnicity 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Hispanic or Latino Not Hispanic or Latino Source: CFC calculations, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)
The Housing Gap HOUSING UNIT NEEDS SUMMARY
While the existing inventory tends to be larger, with more bedrooms, however, South Park Hill holds the majority of the units over three bedrooms East Colfax Housing Units by Bedrooms South Park Hill Housing Units by Bedrooms 1% 5% 4%1% 3% 15% 24% 26% 31% 22% 37% 31% 3 bdrm Studio 1 bdrm 2 bdrm 3 bdrm 4 bdrm 5+ bdrm Studio 1 bdrm 2 bdrm 4 bdrm 5+ bdrm Source: CFC
Overview of residential units Residential False True Owner Occupancy False True Study Area SPHC Source: CFC Analysis of Assessor Records 2020 Q2
CFCs Social Determinants Index Factors FACTOR CATEGORY Facilities per capita Health Services Share of insured population Health Services Park Hill Campus - All Census Tracts Share of housing units affordable to med fam income Housing Park Hill - West Park Hill - East E Colfax - North E Colfax - South Share of households not housing cost-burdened Housing index_health 1.5 Walkability index Built/Natural Environment 1 index_food index_housing 0.5 Share of population with access to a car Built/Natural Environment 0 Air quality mean predicted concentration measure Built/Natural Environment -0.5 -1 Share of employed persons Economic Environment index_social index_env Median family income 2017 Economic Environment Percent change in population 2x above FPL Economic Environment The zero (0) line is the state mean Average 3rd grade reading proficiency Education Environment index_educ index_econ Share of population 25+ with Bachelor's or more Education Environment Gini index Social Environment Share of connected youth (16-19) Social Environment Share of registered voters (18+) Social Environment Price of bananas Food Environment Low Access to food Food Environment Source: CFC
