Enhancing Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions in the Arctic

Daniela Matei from MPI and Noel Keenlyside from UiB aim to improve Arctic climate predictions and their connection to the Northern Hemisphere. They plan to enhance models and methodologies, assess baseline predictions, conduct coordinated experiments, explore innovative techniques for predictive skill enhancement, and provide datasets for modeling partners. Their goal is to overcome current limitations and deliver an updated forecast ensemble to impact case studies.

• Arctic
• Climate Predictions
• Northern Hemisphere
• Model Enhancement

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Uploaded on Sep 25, 2024 | 1 Views

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1. WP4: Enhancing the capacity of seasonal-to-decadal predictions in the Arctic and over the Northern Hemisphere Daniela Matei (MPI) and Noel Keenlyside (UiB) Goal To identify the current limitations in predicting Arctic climate (and its link to NH climate) and to develop improved models and methodologies to enhance the skill of initialized climate predictions in the Arctic and over the NH. An updated forecast ensemble will be performed with the improved systems and delivered to selected impact case studies.

2. Month Task 4.1: Mechanistic and statistical skill assessment of baseline predictions Deliver initial data to WP5 from existing experiments from MPI, NorCPM, IPSL models [D4.1, month 6, Daniela/MPI] Identify selected events for performing prediction case studies Investigate approaches to extract most information from existing systems Milestone 6 expected around month 12 to conclude discussion on these cases 1 12 24 D4.2 Report describing the benchmark performance of state-of- the-art prediction systems [month 24, Daniela/MPI] 36 48

3. Month Task 4.1: Mechanistic and statistical skill assessment of baseline predictions 1 12 Task 4.2: Coordinated experiments to quantify the contribution of the Artic and high latitude North Atlantic in predictability of Northern Hemisphere extreme weather and climate 1) Idealised prediction experiments with data added or withheld 2) Greenland Ice Sheet melt prediction experiments 24 Skill will be assessed in terms of the representation of mechanisms 36 Experiment protocol to be finalised around month 12 [MS 7] D4.3: Report summarising the impact of the Arctic and high- latitude North Atlantic, and Greenland ice sheet melt on predictability of the Arctic, North Atlantic, and climate of surrounding continents [month 36, DMI, Torben] 48

4. Month Task 4.1: Mechanistic and statistical skill assessment of baseline predictions 1 12 Task 4.3: Explore alternative ways of enhancing predictive skill through improved model configurations and innovative initialization techniques 1) Higher ocean and atmospheric resolution 2) Consistent initialisation of sea ice 3) Methods to reduce initial shock on predictions 24 Skill will be assessed in terms of the representation of mechanisms 36 Experiment protocol to be finalised around month 12 [MS 7] D4.4: Datasets from all sensitivity prediction experiments available in standard data format, and fully documented to Blue Action modelling partners and impact case studies [month 36, UiB, Noel] 48

5. Month Task 4.1: Mechanistic and statistical skill assessment of baseline predictions 1 12 Task 4.2: Identify predictability mechanisms Task 4.3: Assessing improved systems 24 Task 4.3: Explore alternative ways of enhancing predictive skill through improved model configurations and innovative initialization techniques Only briefly discussed as starts month 24 36 D4.5: Report on the best practices for enhancing seasonal-to- decadal prediction skill in the Arctic with user- relevant linkages over the NH continents [month 48, NLeSC, Wilco] 48

6. Other issues Is there any infrastructure in the project for data sharing? Collaboration with the following projects was identified. EU APPLICATE NordForsk ARCPATH EU INTAROS JPI INTERDEC BMBF MIKLIP BMBF RACE