The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions

 
The Arctic in the Anthropocene
Emerging Research Questions
 
Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington
Committee Co-Chairs
April 28, 2014
 
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Photo credit: P. Spector
 
Who are we?
 
National Academy of Sciences 
(NAS) is a nonprofit
organization established in 1863. We were chartered
by Congress during the Lincoln Administration to
provide 
independent advice 
to the Nation on
science, engineering, and medicine We are not
a government agency.
National Academy of Engineering 
(NAE - est. 1964) and 
Institute of Medicine
(IOM - est. 1970) are connected institutions, expanding our breadth and depth of
expertise. (
National Research Council 
is “operating arm.”)
 
Intellectual leadership comes from 
volunteer experts
, chosen for expertise,
balance, and objectivity.
 
Committee reports are most well known (200+ reports each year) but also
research grants, fellowships, workshops, & other uses of independent experts.
 
Committee Membership
 
HENRY HUNTINGTON, Co-Chair
The Pew Charitable Trusts
STEPHANIE PFIRMAN, Co-Chair
Barnard College, Columbia University
CARIN ASHJIAN
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
LAURA BOURGEAU-CHAVEZ
Michigan Technological University
JENNIFER FRANCIS
Rutgers University
SVEN HAAKANSON
University of Washington
ROBERT HAWLEY
Dartmouth College
TAQULIK HEPA
North Slope Borough
DAVID HIK
University of Alberta
 
 
LARRY HINZMAN
University of Alaska, Fairbanks
AMANDA LYNCH
Brown University
A. MICHAEL MACRANDER
Shell Alaska
GIFFORD MILLER
University of Colorado, Boulder
KATE MORAN
Ocean Networks Canada
ELLEN MOSLEY-THOMPSON
The Ohio State University
SAMUEL MUKASA
University of New Hampshire
TOM WEINGARTNER
University of Alaska, Fairbanks
 
1. Study Context
 
What happens in the Arctic—
to ecosystems, people, and
climate—has far-reaching
implications for the entire planet
Climate change is happening
faster in the Arctic than anywhere
else on Earth, causing the loss of
sea ice, thawing of permafrost,
and shifts in ecosystems
This report connects the dots
between future science
opportunities and methods to
meet those challenges
 
Charge to the Committee
 
Summarize the rationale for
continued U.S. research in the
Arctic
Identify key emerging scientific
questions in different realms of
Arctic science (both disciplinary
and cross cutting)
 
Identify the types of research infrastructure, data management,
technological developments, and logistical support needed
Identify needs and opportunities for improved coordination in
Arctic research
Explore how agency decision makers might balance their
research programs and associated investments
 
 Community Engagement
 
Review of published reports and articles
(
including previous reports from numerous
regional, national, and international agencies,
organizations, and other institutions 
)
Online questionnaire
(
over 300 responses
)
Targeted interviews
(
15 researchers
)
Anchorage Workshop
(
~50 participants
)
Ottawa Workshop
(
~45 participants
)
 
Community Engagement
 
Respondent Career Stage
 
Respondent Disciplines
 
 2. Rationale for Arctic Research
 
Examples of observed impacts of climate change in the Arctic from IPCC 2014
 
3. Emerging Research Questions
 
Existing Questions
 Those that have been the subject
of ongoing research but remain unanswered or for
other reasons deserve continued attention
Emerging Questions
 Those that we are only now
able to ask because they:
Address newly recognized
phenomena
Build on recent results and
insights
Can be addressed using newly
available technology or access
 
Managed
 
Evolving
 
Connected
 
Undetermined
 
Hidden
 
Emerging Research Questions
 
ERQ: Evolving Arctic
 
Will Arctic communities have greater or
lesser influence on their futures?
Will the land be wetter or drier and what
are the associated implications for
surface water, energy balances, and
ecosystems?
How much of the variability of the Arctic
system is linked to ocean circulation?
What are the impacts of extreme events
in the new ice-reduced system?
How will primary productivity change
with decreasing sea ice and snow cover?
How will species distributions and
associated ecosystem structure change
with the evolving cryosphere?
 
ERQ: Hidden Arctic
 
What surprises are hidden within
and beneath the ice?
What is being irretrievably lost as
the Arctic changes?
Why does winter matter?
What can “break or brake” glaciers
and ice sheets?
 
How unusual is the current Arctic
warmth?
What is the role of the Arctic in
abrupt change?
What has been the Cenozoic
evolution of the Arctic Ocean
basin?
 
ERQ: Connected Arctic
 
How will rapid Arctic warming change
the jet stream and affect weather
patterns in lower latitudes?
What is the potential for a trajectory of
irreversible loss of Arctic land ice, and
how will its impact vary regionally?
How will climate change affect
exchanges between the Arctic Ocean
and sub-polar basins?
How will Arctic change affect the long-
range transport and persistence of
biota?
How will changing societal connections
between the Arctic and the rest of the
world affect Arctic communities?
 
Image source: NASA
 
ERQ: Managed Arctic
 
How will decreasing populations in rural villages
and increasing urbanization affect Arctic peoples
and societies?
Will local, regional, and international relations in
the Arctic move toward cooperation or conflict?
How can twenty-first century development in the
Arctic occur without compromising the
environment or indigenous cultures while still
benefitting global and Arctic inhabitants?
How can we prepare forecasts and scenarios
to meet emerging management needs?
What benefits and risks are presented by
geoengineering and other large-scale
technological interventions to prevent or
reduce climate change and associated
impacts in the Arctic?
 
Leaving room for new ideas and making it possible to
identify new research directions when the need arises
requires:
Research to better assess new topics
Long-term observations to identify changes and
surprises without delay
Flexibility in funding to be able to move quickly when
a significant event occurs.
 
ERQ:
Undetermined Arctic
 
Short-term
 
Direct
application
E1: Community futures
E2: Wetter or drier
E3: Ocean variability
E4: Arctic extremes
E5: Primary productivity
H1: Icy surprises
H2: What is lost
H3: Winter
H4: Break or brake
H5: Unusual warmth
H6: Abrupt change
C1: Jet stream
C2: Irreversible ice
C3: Ocean exchange
C4: Biota transport
C5: Social connections
M1: Urbanization
M2: Cooperation/conflict
M3: 21
st
 century development
M4: Forecasts
M5: Geoengineering
H7: Cenozoic
 
Long-term
 
Medium-term
 
Basic
understanding
E6: Species distribution
 
Direct Application/Basic Understanding
 
Short-term
 
Social
Science
E1: Community futures
E3: Ocean variability
E4: Arctic extremes
E5: Primary productivity
H1: Icy surprises
H2: What is lost
H3: Winter
H4: Break or brake
H5: Unusual warmth
H6: Abrupt change
C1: Jet stream
C2: Irreversible ice
C3: Ocean exchange
C4: Biota transport
C5: Social connections
M1: Urbanization
M2: Cooperation/conflict
M3: 21
st
 century development
M4: Forecasts
H7: Cenozoic
 
Long-term
 
Medium-term
 
Natural
Science
E6: Species distribution
E2: Wetter or drier
M5: Geoengineering
 
Social Science/Natural Science
H6: Abrupt change
 
Short-term
 
Global
E1: Community futures
E2: Wetter or drier
E3: Ocean variability
E4: Arctic extremes
H1: Icy surprises
H2: What is lost
H3: Winter
H4: Break or brake
H5: Unusual warmth
C1: Jet stream
C2: Irreversible ice
C3: Ocean exchange
C4: Biota transport
C5: Social connections
M1: Urbanization
M2: Cooperation/conflict
M3: 21
st
 century development
M4: Forecasts
M5: Geoengineering
H7: Cenozoic
 
Long-term
 
Medium-term
 
Local
 
Regional
E6: Species distribution
E5: Primary productivity
 
Global/Regional/Local
 
Information
 
Cooperation
 
Human Capacity
 
Operations
 
Observations
 
Investment Strategies
 
4. Meeting the Challenges
 
Meeting the Challenges
 
Maintaining and Building Operational Capacity
Mobile Platforms
Fixed Platforms and Systems
Remote Sensing
Sensors
Power and Communication
Models in Prediction, Projection,
and ReAnalyses
Partnerships with Industry
Sustaining Long-Term Observations
Rationale for Long-Term Observations
Coordinating Long-Term Observation Efforts
 
Meeting the Challenges
 
Enhancing Cooperation
Interagency, International, Interdisciplinary, Intersectoral, Social Media
Managing and Sharing Information
Preserving the Legacy of Research through Data Preservation and Dissemination
Creating a Culture of Data Preservation and Sharing
Infrastructure to Ensure Data Flows from Observation to Users, Stakeholders,
and Archives
Data Visualization and Analysis
Growing Human Capacity
Training Young Scientists
Community Engagement
 
Photo credit: H. Huntington
 
Meeting the Challenges
 
Investing in Research
Comprehensive Systems
and Synthesis Research
Non-Steady-State Research
Social Sciences and Human Capacity
Stakeholder-Initiated Research
International Funding Cooperation
Long-Term Observations
 
5. Building Knowledge and Solving Problems
 
Enhance the ways in
which we make use
of Arctic research
Foster collaboration,
especially with
decision-makers
Manage change to the best of our abilities
Study what exists, what is emerging, and what
awaits us in the Arctic
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The study sponsored by organizations like DOE, NASA, NOAA, NSF, Smithsonian, and USARC delves into the significant implications of Arctic changes on ecosystems, climate, and humanity. The report emphasizes the urgent need for continued research in the Arctic to understand and address the rapid climate change impacting sea ice, permafrost, and ecosystems. Key scientific questions, infrastructural requirements, coordination needs, and research program balancing are outlined for effective decision-making in Arctic research.

  • Arctic research
  • Climate change
  • Emerging questions
  • Scientific challenges
  • Research coordination

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  1. The Arctic in the Anthropocene Emerging Research Questions Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington Committee Co-Chairs April 28, 2014 Study sponsors: DOE, NASA, NOAA, NSF, Smithsonian, USARC Photo credit: P. Spector

  2. Who are we? National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is a nonprofit organization established in 1863. We were chartered by Congress during the Lincoln Administration to provide independent advice to the Nation on science, engineering, and medicine We are not a government agency. National Academy of Engineering (NAE - est. 1964) and Institute of Medicine (IOM - est. 1970) are connected institutions, expanding our breadth and depth of expertise. (National Research Council is operating arm. ) Intellectual leadership comes from volunteer experts, chosen for expertise, balance, and objectivity. Committee reports are most well known (200+ reports each year) but also research grants, fellowships, workshops, & other uses of independent experts. 2

  3. Committee Membership HENRY HUNTINGTON, Co-Chair The Pew Charitable Trusts STEPHANIE PFIRMAN, Co-Chair Barnard College, Columbia University CARIN ASHJIAN Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution LAURA BOURGEAU-CHAVEZ Michigan Technological University JENNIFER FRANCIS Rutgers University SVEN HAAKANSON University of Washington ROBERT HAWLEY Dartmouth College TAQULIK HEPA North Slope Borough DAVID HIK University of Alberta LARRY HINZMAN University of Alaska, Fairbanks AMANDA LYNCH Brown University A. MICHAEL MACRANDER Shell Alaska GIFFORD MILLER University of Colorado, Boulder KATE MORAN Ocean Networks Canada ELLEN MOSLEY-THOMPSON The Ohio State University SAMUEL MUKASA University of New Hampshire TOM WEINGARTNER University of Alaska, Fairbanks 3

  4. 1. Study Context What happens in the Arctic to ecosystems, people, and climate has far-reaching implications for the entire planet Climate change is happening faster in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth, causing the loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost, and shifts in ecosystems This report connects the dots between future science opportunities and methods to meet those challenges 4

  5. Charge to the Committee Summarize the rationale for continued U.S. research in the Arctic Identify key emerging scientific questions in different realms of Arctic science (both disciplinary and cross cutting) Photo credit: M. Kennedy Identify the types of research infrastructure, data management, technological developments, and logistical support needed Identify needs and opportunities for improved coordination in Arctic research Explore how agency decision makers might balance their research programs and associated investments 5

  6. Community Engagement Review of published reports and articles (including previous reports from numerous regional, national, and international agencies, organizations, and other institutions ) Online questionnaire (over 300 responses) Targeted interviews (15 researchers) Anchorage Workshop (~50 participants) Ottawa Workshop (~45 participants) Photo credit: P. Spector 6

  7. Community Engagement 9% Respondent Career Stage Graduate student 35% 24% Early career Mid-career Late career 32% Respondent Disciplines Atmosphere/climate Biology/ecology Cryosphere Oceans People/social science Terrestrial/geo Paleo Other/interdisciplinary 10% 22% 18% 3% 12% 6% 12% 17% 7

  8. 2. Rationale for Arctic Research Examples of observed impacts of climate change in the Arctic from IPCC 2014 Category Examples Decreasing sea ice cover in summer Reduction in ice volume in glaciers Decreasing snow cover extent Widespread permafrost degradation Increased river discharge for large circumpolar rivers Increased lake water temperatures Disappearance of thermokarst lakes due to permafrost degradation in the low Arctic Increased shrub cover in the tundra Advance of Arctic tree line in latitude and altitude Changed breeding area and population size of subarctic birds Loss of snowbed ecosystems and tussock tundra Increased coastal erosion Negative effects on non-migratory species Snow and Ice Rivers and Lakes Floods and Drought Terrestrial Ecosystems Coastal Erosion and Marine Ecosystems Food Production and Livelihoods Impact on livelihoods of indigenous peoples Increased shipping traffic across Bering Strait 8

  9. 3. Emerging Research Questions Existing Questions Those that have been the subject of ongoing research but remain unanswered or for other reasons deserve continued attention Emerging Questions Those that we are only now able to ask because they: Address newly recognized phenomena Build on recent results and insights Can be addressed using newly available technology or access Photo credit: G. Miller 9

  10. Emerging Research Questions Evolving Connected Undetermined Managed Hidden

  11. ERQ: Evolving Arctic Evolving Connected Undetermined Will Arctic communities have greater or lesser influence on their futures? Will the land be wetter or drier and what are the associated implications for surface water, energy balances, and ecosystems? How much of the variability of the Arctic system is linked to ocean circulation? What are the impacts of extreme events in the new ice-reduced system? How will primary productivity change with decreasing sea ice and snow cover? How will species distributions and associated ecosystem structure change with the evolving cryosphere? Managed Hidden Figure source: NOAA 11

  12. ERQ: Hidden Arctic Evolving Connected Undetermined What surprises are hidden within and beneath the ice? What is being irretrievably lost as the Arctic changes? Why does winter matter? What can break or brake glaciers and ice sheets? Managed Hidden How unusual is the current Arctic warmth? What is the role of the Arctic in abrupt change? What has been the Cenozoic evolution of the Arctic Ocean basin? Image source: NASA 12

  13. ERQ: Connected Arctic Evolving Connected Undetermined How will rapid Arctic warming change the jet stream and affect weather patterns in lower latitudes? What is the potential for a trajectory of irreversible loss of Arctic land ice, and how will its impact vary regionally? How will climate change affect exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and sub-polar basins? How will Arctic change affect the long- range transport and persistence of biota? How will changing societal connections between the Arctic and the rest of the world affect Arctic communities? Managed Hidden Image source: NASA 13

  14. ERQ: Managed Arctic Evolving Connected Undetermined How will decreasing populations in rural villages and increasing urbanization affect Arctic peoples and societies? Will local, regional, and international relations in the Arctic move toward cooperation or conflict? How can twenty-first century development in the Arctic occur without compromising the environment or indigenous cultures while still benefitting global and Arctic inhabitants? How can we prepare forecasts and scenarios to meet emerging management needs? What benefits and risks are presented by geoengineering and other large-scale technological interventions to prevent or reduce climate change and associated impacts in the Arctic? Managed Hidden Photo source: USCG 14

  15. ERQ: Undetermined Arctic Evolving Connected Undetermined Managed Hidden Leaving room for new ideas and making it possible to identify new research directions when the need arises requires: Research to better assess new topics Long-term observations to identify changes and surprises without delay Flexibility in funding to be able to move quickly when a significant event occurs. 15

  16. Direct Application/Basic Understanding Short-term Medium-term Long-term application M2: Cooperation/conflict Direct M3: 21st century development M4: Forecasts M5: Geoengineering E1: Community futures M1: Urbanization C1: Jet stream C5: Social connections E4: Arctic extremes H2: What is lost C2: Irreversible ice E2: Wetter or drier H3: Winter H6: Abrupt change H4: Break or brake E5: Primary productivity understanding E6: Species distribution H1: Icy surprises Basic E3: Ocean variability C4: Biota transport H5: Unusual warmth C3: Ocean exchange H7: Cenozoic

  17. Social Science/Natural Science Short-term Medium-term Long-term E1: Community futures Science Social M1: Urbanization C5: Social connections M2: Cooperation/conflict H2: What is lost E4: Arctic extremes M4: Forecasts M5: Geoengineering M3: 21st century development E2: Wetter or drier E5: Primary productivity C1: Jet stream C2: Irreversible ice H6: Abrupt change C4: Biota transport H1: Icy surprises E3: Ocean variability Natural Science H4: Break or brake H5: Unusual warmth E6: Species distribution C3: Ocean exchange H3: Winter H7: Cenozoic

  18. Global/Regional/Local Short-term Medium-term Long-term Global C2: Irreversible ice C3: Ocean exchange H6: Abrupt change H4: Break or brake H1: Icy surprises C1: Jet stream C4: Biota transport M5: Geoengineering E3: Ocean variability Regional E4: Arctic extremes H5: Unusual warmth C5: Social connections E2: Wetter or drier H7: Cenozoic E6: Species distribution M3: 21st century development E5: Primary productivity H3: Winter M1: Urbanization M2: Cooperation/conflict M4: Forecasts Local E1: Community futures H2: What is lost

  19. 4. Meeting the Challenges Investment Strategies Human Capacity Cooperation Operations Information Observations

  20. Meeting the Challenges Maintaining and Building Operational Capacity Mobile Platforms Fixed Platforms and Systems Remote Sensing Sensors Power and Communication Models in Prediction, Projection, and ReAnalyses Partnerships with Industry Sustaining Long-Term Observations Rationale for Long-Term Observations Coordinating Long-Term Observation Efforts Photo credit: S. Roberts 20

  21. Meeting the Challenges Enhancing Cooperation Interagency, International, Interdisciplinary, Intersectoral, Social Media Managing and Sharing Information Preserving the Legacy of Research through Data Preservation and Dissemination Creating a Culture of Data Preservation and Sharing Infrastructure to Ensure Data Flows from Observation to Users, Stakeholders, and Archives Data Visualization and Analysis Growing Human Capacity Training Young Scientists Community Engagement Image source: Arctic Collaborative Environment Photo credit: H. Huntington 21

  22. Meeting the Challenges Investing in Research Comprehensive Systems and Synthesis Research Non-Steady-State Research Social Sciences and Human Capacity Stakeholder-Initiated Research International Funding Cooperation Long-Term Observations Photo source: NOAA 22

  23. 5. Building Knowledge and Solving Problems Enhance the ways in which we make use of Arctic research Foster collaboration, especially with decision-makers Manage change to the best of our abilities Study what exists, what is emerging, and what awaits us in the Arctic Photo credit: M. Kennedy 23

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