Seasonal forecasting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


Effective Budgeting and Forecasting Practices for Improved Resource Allocation

Understand the key differences between budgeting and forecasting, why they are essential, and where these processes are carried out. Learn about historical forecasting methods, the introduction of the Budgeting and Forecasting Tool (BFT) for increased efficiency, and the importance of BFT reporting

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Demand Estimation and Demand Forecasting

Demand estimation and forecasting are crucial processes for businesses to predict future demand for their products or services. Demand estimation involves analyzing the impact of various variables on demand levels and pricing strategies, while demand forecasting helps in planning production, new pro

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Understanding Add Factors and Forecasting in Regression Analysis

Regression analysis involves estimating parameters and fitting lines to data, with errors represented by residuals. Errors in forecasting can be caused by structural breaks or one-off events like droughts, leading to growth shifts. Add factors represent the difference between a statistical forecast

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Enhancing Cost Forecasting in Major Capital Projects: Key Findings and Recommendations

This study analyses cost forecasting in major capital projects, identifying causes of cost underestimation and proposing measures to improve accuracy. Key findings highlight optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, and the importance of data quality for accurate forecasts. Recommendations include

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Demand Forecasting in Cargo Transport by Revenue Technology Services

Demand forecasting in cargo transport plays a crucial role in ensuring efficient and reliable logistics operations. Revenue Technology Services (RTS), a leader in cargo solutions, offers innovative forecasting tools that help businesses navigate the complexities of supply chain management. With the

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Demand Forecasting Techniques in Cargo Operations

In the dynamic world of cargo operations, effective demand forecasting is pivotal for streamlined logistics and maximized profitability. Revenue Technology Services (RTS), a leader in cargo strategy consulting, emphasizes the importance of leveraging sophisticated demand forecasting techniques to st

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Ayurvedic Principles for Seasonal Health Maintenance

Learn about the importance of Ritucharya in Ayurveda, which emphasizes adapting diet and lifestyle according to seasonal changes to maintain optimum health. Discover the effects of Uttarayana and Dakshinayana on the body and environment, providing insights on preventive medicine and seasonal regimen

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Understanding Economic Forecasting with Simulation Models

Explore the concept of economic forecasting using multi-equation simulation models, focusing on producing data that follows estimated equations rather than estimating model parameters. Learn about endogenous and exogenous variables, the importance of assumptions in forecasting, and the use of simula

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Operations Planning and Control: Forecasting Methods Overview

Forecasting is a crucial process in operations management, involving the estimation of future events based on past and present information. This chapter covers the significance of forecasts, characteristics of forecasting, role in decision-making, various forecasting methods (qualitative and quantit

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Understanding the Importance of Business Forecasting

Business forecasting involves predicting future trends based on past and present data to make informed decisions and allocate resources strategically. By utilizing quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods, organizations can adapt their business strategies, maximize resources, and stay compet

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Understanding Time Series Forecasting Using Deep Learning

Deep learning for time series forecasting involves training models to predict future values based on historical data patterns. This method is used in various applications, such as sales forecasting and disease prediction, to make informed decisions and plan ahead effectively.

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Efficient Cash Flow Forecasting for Government Financial Management

Efficient cash flow forecasting is vital for government financial management to ensure budget targets are achieved, expenditures are smoothly financed, and potential problems are detected early. By forecasting daily cash flows, governments can manage their cash efficiently, optimize cash balances, r

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Understanding the Shadow Budget Management System at CSU San Marcos

The Shadow Budget at CSU San Marcos is a budget management system utilizing Excel workbooks for tracking, reconciling, and forecasting financial data. It offers flexibility and customization through pivot tables, making analysis efficient and accurate. The system helps in reconciling revenues and ex

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Techniques and Importance of Forecasting for Strategic Decision-Making

Forecasting is a vital process for estimating future events that impact businesses. Deepali Hiremath, an Assistant Professor, emphasizes the significance of using statistical and non-statistical techniques to predict environmental changes. The steps involved include identifying relevant variables, c

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Strategic Tourism Demand Forecasting Methods

The chapter delves into qualitative and quantitative approaches for tourism demand forecasting, including the Delphi method and executive opinion juries. It explores advanced forecasting methods and the application of big data analytics in the tourism industry. The focus is on generating expert opin

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Understanding Demand Forecasting for Better Business Planning

Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of business decision-making, allowing organizations to estimate future demand for their products or services. Dr. Pooja Singh, an Assistant Professor at Chhatrapati Shahu Ji Maharaj University in Kanpur, explains the art and methods of demand forecasting, its u

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Forecasting Methods and Techniques for Demand Planning

Explore different forecasting methods such as Naive Approach, Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, and their applications in demand forecasting. Understand the concepts, advantages, and limitations of each method through examples and visual representations.

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Seasonal Forecasting: Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Explore the world of seasonal forecasting through this presentation, covering topics such as the definition of seasonal forecast, sources of predictability, real-time forecasting over the Arctic, and the importance of ensembles in forecasting accuracy. Discover how seasonal outlooks play a crucial r

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Financial Forecasting: Short vs Long Term Strategies

Explore the differences between short and long-term financial forecasting in this informative presentation. Understand the importance of accurate forecasting for guiding policy decisions, strategic planning, and maintaining fiscal discipline. Learn about forecasting methodologies, managing expenditu

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Understanding Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing Methods

Forecasting methods like moving averages and exponential smoothing are essential for analyzing time series data. Averaging methods involve equally weighted observations, while exponential smoothing methods assign unequal weights that decay exponentially. Both methods can be useful for forecasting in

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NCEP GEFS Sub-Seasonal Forecasting Exercise

In this exercise, you will generate NCEP GEFS deterministic week 1 and week 2 forecasts for precipitation and temperature anomaly. The practical steps include downloading the necessary data and scripts, extracting the files, and accessing the GEFS model guidance. This exercise focuses on understandi

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Basic Forecasting Tutorial with EViews

EViews provides a powerful forecasting tool for obtaining forecasts from estimated models. This tutorial covers basic procedures for forecasting, including static vs. dynamic forecasts, forecast evaluation, errors and variances, forecasting with exogenous variables, and forecasting with auto-series.

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Enhancements in Causal Forecasting: SPM 11.0.1/11.1 Overview

Key enhancements in SPM 11.0.1/11.1 focus on improving forecast accuracy through variable history slices, causal forecasting for multiple streams, multi-threading capabilities, easy access to product rollout and causal value pages, and more. The Next Gen Causal Forecasting introduces additional feat

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Understanding the Forecasting Process with Dr. Mohammed Alahmed

Dr. Mohammed Alahmed provides a comprehensive guide to the forecasting process, covering problem definition, gathering information, model selection, evaluation, and more. The content highlights key steps such as specifying objectives, identifying time dimensions, and evaluating forecasting models fo

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Energy Center State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG) Independent Load Forecasting Report

The Energy Center State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG) presented draft results and approach changes for 2016 in their Independent Load Forecast for the MISO Planning Advisory Committee. Their methodology includes adjustments for energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed generation, as we

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Surface Ozone Seasonal Cycle Reversal Study in Northeastern United States Lower Manhattan

Study on the reversal of the surface ozone seasonal cycle over Northeastern United States Lower Manhattan, analyzing the impact of NOx and VOC emissions on Surface O3 levels. Research shows a 26% decrease in regional NOx emissions leading to changes in the seasonal cycle of surface ozone concentrati

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Occupational Forecasting and Industry Projections in Louisiana

Occupational Forecasting and Industry Projections in Louisiana are crucial for workforce planning and economic development. The process involves annual projections by industry and occupation, updated with new demand and wage data. The Occupational Forecasting Conference, overseen by key stakeholders

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SUFG Stakeholder Workshop Insights on Utility Forecasting and Evaluation

Stakeholder feedback from the ENERGY CENTER State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG) workshop highlights considerations for improving load forecasting techniques, including the use of binary variables, end-use models, state-level data access, and economic model adjustments. Insights on electricity pri

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Seasonal Challenges in the Italian Tourism Sector

The Italian tourism sector faces significant seasonal adjustments, with main causes being natural, institutional, and social factors. The sector experiences fluctuations in tourist nights, impacting businesses across the industry. Despite attempts to diversify offerings, challenges like limited tour

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Exploring Modern Forecasting Methods in Fashion and Megatrends

Delve into the world of fashion forecasting and megatrends, understanding the significance of long-term forecasting in decision-making for the textile and apparel industry. Discover the methodology, evolution, and key concepts of trendspotting, style eruptions, and the process of long-term forecasti

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Operational Ocean Modeling and Forecasting Systems

This content provides an overview of various operational ocean modeling and forecasting systems, including data assimilation processes, glider data, surface and subsurface data sources, forecasting models for hurricanes, and NOAA's hurricane forecasting models. It covers a range of technologies and

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Adapting DWP Forecasting for Covid-19 Challenges Using Hybrid Dynamic Microsimulation Approach

DWP adapted its forecasting for Covid-19 challenges by implementing a hybrid dynamic microsimulation approach at the IMA Conference in Dec '20. The organization's strong track record in microsimulation includes developments in AnyLogic translation, working age modeling, and forecasting. The plan inv

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Advancing the Living with a Star Program: Science Goals and Community Priorities

The Living with a Star (LWS) program, led by a dedicated steering committee, aims to provide yearly reports, set long-term visions, and address key science topics in solar and space physics. The community priorities include enabling discovery and addressing societal needs, emphasizing the importance

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Advances in Operational Air Quality Forecasting and Data Assimilation

Key observations and advancements in operational air quality forecasting and data assimilation were highlighted in sessions featuring prominent experts from various organizations like ECMWF/CAMS, GAFIS, NOAA, and ECCC. Topics discussed ranged from progress and challenges in air quality forecasting i

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Implementation Plan for Food Security Forecasting Model in AFSIS Project

This project led by Shoji Kimura aims to promote food security through the development of a forecasting model within the ASEAN Food Security Information System (AFSIS). The plan involves creating supply and demand forecasting information, training on forecasting methods, developing the F Model, and

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Enhancing Forecasting Techniques for Inventory Management

Explore improved forecasting methods for better anticipating rising or falling demand, handling seasonal demand fluctuations, and utilizing alternative techniques in inventory management. Dr. Tony Wild presents insightful strategies and figures showcasing double exponential smoothing, trend forecast

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Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction at NOAA

NOAA's efforts in improving sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions aim to enhance emergency management planning, health outcomes, national infrastructure decisions, and national security posture. Specific initiatives include the California Drought Service Assessment, operational product development, E

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Methods for Forecasting Seasonal Items with Intermittent Demand

Explore forecasting methods for seasonal items with intermittent demand, focusing on managing inventory and meeting sporadic demands efficiently. Learn about assumptions, policies, simulations, and strategies to minimize overstock while maximizing customer demand fulfillment.

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Seasonal Variations in Demand Forecasting Using Multiplicative Seasonal Model

Understanding and utilizing the multiplicative seasonal model for demand forecasting involves computing average historical demand for each season, determining the average demand across all seasons, calculating seasonal indices, and estimating total demand for the upcoming year based on these factors

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Enhancing Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasting with S2S Database Archiving

Explore the contributions of key centers like ECMWF, ECCC, UKMO, and others to the S2S database archiving, detailing the models, data providers, and current status. Learn about plans to add new variables, extend access to researchers, and integrate ocean data into the MARS system for enhanced foreca

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