Population and Migration Estimates April 2023 Insights

 
Population and
Migration Estimates
April 2023
 
 
Cathal Doherty, Population Estimates and Projections
25/09/2023
 
Annual Estimates and Census of Population
 
As is standard practice, the intercensal period (2017 – 2022) for the
population and migration estimates series (PME) has been revised based
on a thorough analysis of the Census of Population results
Data on the registration of vital events (births and deaths) has been
replaced by data on the occurrence of these events
Migration flows in the period have been adjusted and updated
 
Fully updated series can be viewed on PXSTAT:
 
3
 
Important points on 2022
 
1a. People from households that were temporarily absent outside Ireland on
Census night are included in the 2022 data for the first time
 
1b. Additivity of population change components has been impacted
between 2021 and 2022
 
2. The 2022 immigration flow has been adjusted to ensure accurate
estimation of those who arrived to the end of April
 
Further details can be found in the PME 2023 background notes
 
 
Population 1951 – 2023
 
4
 
 
Generally increasing population
since 1961
 
Population stock passed the 5.2
million people threshold
between 2022 and 2023
 
 
 
5,281,600
 
2,818,300
 
Vital Events, 2005 – 2023
 
5
 
 
Annual deaths above 30,000
since 2017
 
Annual births in steady decline
since peak in 2010
 
Natural increase trend match the
annual births trend
 
 
Immigration by Citizenship, 2017 – 2023
 
6
 
 
Drop in inward flows after 2020
with increases since 2021
 
Consecutive 12-month periods
with over 100,000 people
 
Increases driven by Rest of the
World flows
 
Returning Irish consistent apart
from decline between 2021 and
2022
 
 
Emigration by Citizenship, 2017 – 2023
 
7
 
 
Emigration flow above 60,000
people in 2023
 
Number of Irish emigrants larger
than other citizenship groupings
 
Rest of the World flows are the
next largest
 
Approximately zero net migration
of Irish and +65,000 net
migration for Rest of the World
 
 
Estimated Net Migration by Citizenship
 
8
 
Migrant Age Distribution, 2023
 
9
 
 
53% of immigrants and 50% of
the emigrants aged 25-44
 
31% of emigrants and 17% of
immigrants aged 15-24
 
15% of immigrants and 9% of
emigrants aged 0-14
 
 
Regional Population Distribution, 2023
 
10
 
 
1.5 million people usually
resident in Dublin
780,000 in the Mid-East
760,000 in the South-West
325,000 in the Midlands
430,000 in the Border
470,000 in the South-East
500,000 in the West
520,000 in the Mid-West
 
 
Population Age Distribution, 2017 vs 2023
 
11
 
 
Over 800,000 people in Ireland
aged 65+, this is a volume
increase of over 150,000 since
2017
 
1.3 million people now aged 45-
64, a volume increase of over
180,000 since 2017
 
Similar volume of the population
aged 0-14 and 25-44 between
2017 and 2023
 
 
Estimated Population by Citizenship
 
12
 
Next Major Output – Population Projections
2023/2024 timeline
 
13
 
Q4 2023
 
September
2023
2023 URESPOP
estimated
Formation
of expert
group
 
Q1 2024
Agree on
assumptions
Mortality
Fertility
Migration
 
Q2 2024
CSO Projections
Published
Series revised
and published
 
demography@cso.ie
Population Estimates and Projections
Central Statistics Office
Ireland
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Comprehensive analysis of population trends from 1951 to 2023, emphasizing the recent data for 2022 and 2023. Highlights include vital events, immigration patterns, and emigration trends, shedding light on population dynamics in the specified period. The report reveals important shifts in demographics, such as increases in migration flows since 2021 and a notable upsurge in emigration in 2023.


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  1. Population and Migration Estimates April 2023 Cathal Doherty, Population Estimates and Projections 25/09/2023

  2. Annual Estimates and Census of Population As is standard practice, the intercensal period (2017 2022) for the population and migration estimates series (PME) has been revised based on a thorough analysis of the Census of Population results Data on the registration of vital events (births and deaths) has been replaced by data on the occurrence of these events Migration flows in the period have been adjusted and updated https://data.cso.ie/product/PME Fully updated series can be viewed on PXSTAT:

  3. Important points on 2022 1a. People from households that were temporarily absent outside Ireland on Census night are included in the 2022 data for the first time 1b. Additivity of population change components has been impacted between 2021 and 2022 2. The 2022 immigration flow has been adjusted to ensure accurate estimation of those who arrived to the end of April Further details can be found in the PME 2023 background notes 3

  4. Population 1951 2023 5,281,600 Generally increasing population since 1961 Population stock passed the 5.2 million people threshold between 2022 and 2023 2,818,300 4

  5. Vital Events, 2005 2023 Annual deaths above 30,000 since 2017 Annual births in steady decline since peak in 2010 Natural increase trend match the annual births trend 5

  6. Immigration by Citizenship, 2017 2023 Drop in inward flows after 2020 with increases since 2021 Consecutive 12-month periods with over 100,000 people Increases driven by Rest of the World flows Returning Irish consistent apart from decline between 2021 and 2022 6

  7. Emigration by Citizenship, 2017 2023 Emigration flow above 60,000 people in 2023 Number of Irish emigrants larger than other citizenship groupings Rest of the World flows are the next largest Approximately zero net migration of Irish and +65,000 net migration for Rest of the World 7

  8. Estimated Net Migration by Citizenship Broad citizenship breakdown Citizenship 2017 2018 2019 Persons ('000) 2020 2021 2022 2023 Irish Non-Irish Total +6.3 +32.9 +39.2 +5.1 +39.3 +44.4 +3.8 +40.2 +44.0 +8.6 +36.1 +44.7 +15.0 +6.8 +21.8 -2.1 +53.8 +51.7 -0.9 +78.5 +77.6 8

  9. Migrant Age Distribution, 2023 53% of immigrants and 50% of the emigrants aged 25-44 31% of emigrants and 17% of immigrants aged 15-24 15% of immigrants and 9% of emigrants aged 0-14 9

  10. Regional Population Distribution, 2023 1.5 million people usually resident in Dublin 780,000 in the Mid-East 760,000 in the South-West 325,000 in the Midlands 430,000 in the Border 470,000 in the South-East 500,000 in the West 520,000 in the Mid-West 10

  11. Population Age Distribution, 2017 vs 2023 Over 800,000 people in Ireland aged 65+, this is a volume increase of over 150,000 since 2017 1.3 million people now aged 45- 64, a volume increase of over 180,000 since 2017 Similar volume of the population aged 0-14 and 25-44 between 2017 and 2023 11

  12. Estimated Population by Citizenship Broad citizenship breakdown Citizenship 2017 2018 2019 Persons ('000) 2020 2021 2022 2023 Irish Non-Irish 4245.3 565.6 4292.3 592.6 4336.5 622 4384.8 645.1 4430.8 643.9 4495.4 688.6 4524.6 757 % 87.2% 12.8% Irish Non-Irish 88.2% 11.8% 87.9% 12.1% 87.5% 12.5% 87.3% 12.7% 86.7% 13.3% 85.7% 14.3% 12

  13. Next Major Output Population Projections 2023/2024 timeline September 2023 Q2 2024 Q1 2024 Q4 2023 Formation of expert group Agree on assumptions 2023 URESPOP estimated CSO Projections Published Mortality Fertility Migration Series revised and published 13

  14. demography@cso.ie Population Estimates and Projections Central Statistics Office Ireland

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