Provisional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimates Presentation April 11, 2018

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The release provides provisional GDP estimates for the fourth quarter of 2017, along with revised estimates for the first three quarters of 2017 and annual estimates for 2016. The GDP measures the value of goods and services produced in the country. The estimation of GDP is done in stages, with provisional, revised, and final estimates. Further revisions to the 2017 GDP estimates will be carried out in June 2018. The presentation includes sector-wise GDP estimates and percentage distributions.

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  1. Release of the Release of the provisional GROSS provisional GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) for FOURTH quarter 2017 for FOURTH quarter 2017 by by Mr. Mr. baah baah wadieh Ag. GOVERNMENT Ag. GOVERNMENT statistician wadieh statistician GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 1

  2. Provisional GDP estimates for fourth quarter of 2017 Revised GDP estimates for the first three quarters of 2017 Final Annual GDP estimates for 2016 Provisional Annual GDP estimates for 2017 Memorandum items Highlights GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 2

  3. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the value of final goods and services produced in the country. Two key indicators are presented in this release: Quarterly GDP which measures the value of final goods and services within a period of three months or one quarter. Annual GDP which measures the value of final goods and services within a period of twelve months or one year. GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 3

  4. The estimation of the GDP is done in stages, with the estimates generated at each stage being dependent on available data. Estimates from each stage are progressively designated as provisional, revised and final. This release contains the provisional GDP estimates for the fourth quarter of 2017, revised GDP estimates for first three quarters of 2017, final annual GDP estimates of 2016 and provisional annual GDP estimates for 2017. Further revisions to the 2017 GDP estimates will be carried out in June 2018. GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 4

  5. GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 5

  6. The provisional 2017 Q4 GDP estimate (incl. oil) at current prices at purchaser s value1 is GH was GH 47 GH 56 56, ,304 304. .8 8 million. The estimate for 2016 Q4 47, ,351 351. .5 5 million. The provisional 2017 Q4 GDP estimate (excl. oil) at current prices at purchaser s value1 is GH was GH 45 GH 52 52, ,433 433. .9 9 million. The value for 2016 Q4 45, ,901 901. .6 6 million. 1Includes FISIM and Net Indirect Taxes GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 6

  7. Sector Sector GDP Estimate (GH million) 12,120.2 GDP Estimate Percentage Distribution Percentage Distribution (GH Agriculture 22.9% 22.9% 13,110.9 24.8% 24.8% Industry 27,665.4 52.3% 52.3% Services GDP at basic prices (including FISIM) 52,896.5 100.0% 100.0% GDP at purchaser s value (including FISIM and net indirect taxes) 56,304.8 GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 7

  8. The constant GDP estimate (incl. oil) for Q4 of 2017 is GH for Q4 of 2016 was GH 10,057.8 million. GH 10 10, ,876 876. .8 8 million while the estimate The constant GDP estimate (excl. oil) for Q4 of 2017 is GH for Q4 of 2016 was GH 9,453.2 million. GH 9 9, ,922 922. .3 3 million. The value recorded GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 8

  9. The provisional 2017 Q4 Real GDP (incl. Oil1) grew by 8.1% year-on-year compared to 4.5% recorded for 2016 Q4. The non-Oil provisional 2017 Q4 Real GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year compared to 4.1% recorded for 2016 Q4. Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted 2017 Q4 GDP grew by 2.1% compared to 2.6% recorded for 2017 Q3. Note Note: incl. Oil : incl. Oil1 1 means Oil and Gas means Oil and Gas GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 9

  10. The quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for the 4th quarter of 2017 was 2.1%. This means that the value of goods and services produced in the 4th quarter of 2017 grew by 2.1% over the value recorded in the 3rd quarter of 2017. Seasonally Adjusted Constant GDP Seasonally Adjusted Constant GDP Quarter Quarter GDP Estimate (GH million) 9,162.7 9,351.6 9,590.9 9,793.0 Growth Rate 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.1 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 10 GDP Presentation April 11, 2018

  11. The year-on-year quarterly GDP growth rate for Agriculture is 8.5% for the fourth quarter of 2017. The Crops sub-sector recorded the highest year-on-year growth rate of 9.7% while the Forestry and Logging sub-sector recorded the lowest growth rate of 3.0%. GDP Q4 2016 (GH million) Crops o/w Cocoa Livestock Forestry & logging Fishing Total GDP GDP GDP Q4 2016 Q4 2017 (GH million) 2,425.1 Q4 2017 Y/Y Change Rate (%) Y/Y Change Rate (%) Agriculture Sub- -sector Agriculture Sub Crops sector 2,425.1 300.0 9.7 17.2 4.6 3.0 4.4 8.5 9.7 2,210.6 256.1 273.4 193.4 116.9 2,794.4 2,210.6 286.1 199.3 122.1 3,032.6 Total 8.5 2,794.4 3,032.6 GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 11

  12. The year-on-year quarterly GDP growth rate for the Industry sector is 17.5% for Q4 of 2017. The Mining & Quarrying sub-sector recorded the highest year- on-year quarterly GDP growth rate of 43.9% for Q4 of 2017, while the Manufacturing sub-sector recorded the lowest (1.3%). GDP Q4 2016 (GH million) Mining and Quarrying o/w Oil and Gas Manufacturing Electricity Water & Sewerage Construction Total GDP GDP GDP Q4 2016 Q4 2017 (GH million) Q4 2017 Y/Y Change Rate (%) Y/Y Change Rate (%) Industry Sub Industry Sub- -sector sector 43.9 57.9 1.3 2.8 3.5 5.0 17.5 767.6 1,104.8 604.5 609.1 57.5 77.5 674.0 2,185.8 954.4 617.1 59.1 80.2 707.5 2,568.8 2,568.8 17.5 Total 2,185.8 GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 12

  13. For the fourth quarter of 2017, the Services sector recorded a year-on-year quarterly GDP growth rate of 3.4%. The Health & Social Work sub-sector recorded the highest year-on-year quarterly GDP growth rate of 24.2% while the Public Administration, Defence & Social Security sub-sector recorded the lowest growth rate of -4.0%. GDP GDP GDP GDP Y/Y Change Rate (%) Y/Y Change Rate (%) Q4 2016 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2017 Services Sub Trade, Repair of Vehicles, Household Goods Hotels and Restaurants Transport & Storage Information & Communication Financial & Insurance Activities Real Estate & Other Service Activities Public Administration & Defence Education Health & Social Work Community, Social & Other Personal Service Activities Total Services Sub- -sector sector 672.9 324.1 1007.7 893.1 423.8 346.1 404.7 362.1 134.3 683.3 332.1 975.0 1002.5 431.3 357.6 388.4 409.5 166.9 1.5 2.5 -3.2 12.2 1.8 3.3 -4.0 13.1 24.2 -3.6 3.4 295.4 4,864.2 284.7 5,031.2 4,864.2 3.4 Total 5,031.2 GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 13

  14. GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 14

  15. The final current GDP estimate (incl. Oil) for 2016 is GH GH 167,353.5 167,353.5 million. The final current GDP estimate (excl. Oil) for 2016 is GH GH 164,098.7 164,098.7 million. GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 15

  16. Sector Sector GDP Estimate (GH 29,565.3 GDP Estimate (GH million) Percentage Distribution Percentage Distribution Agriculture 18.9% Industry 37,964.9 24.3% Services 88,946.3 56.8% GDP at basic prices (including FISIM) 191,212.7 100.0% GDP at purchaser s value (including FISIM and net indirect taxes) 167,353.5 GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 16

  17. The final GDP estimate (incl. Oil) at constant prices for 2016 is GH GH 36,103.6 36,103.6 million. The final GDP estimate (excl. Oil) at constant prices for 2016 is GH GH 34,378.7 34,378.7 million. GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 17

  18. Final Sectoral GDP Growth Rate for 2016 (incl. Oil) 2016 Revised (Sept. 2017) 2016 Final (April 2018) Sector Overall 3.7 3.7 3.0 3.0 Agriculture -0.5 -0.5 Industry 5.7 5.7 Services GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 18

  19. GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 19

  20. The provisional current annual GDP estimate (incl. oil) for 2017 is GH GH 205 205, ,914 914. .0 0 million. The provisional current annual GDP estimate (excl. oil) for 2017 is GH GH 195 195, ,200 200. .0 0 million. GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 20

  21. GDP Estimate (GH 35,046.8 48,761.5 107,404.4 GDP Estimate (GH million) Percentage Distribution 18.3% 25.5% 56.2% Percentage Distribution Sector Agriculture Industry Services GDP at basic prices (including FISIM) GDP at purchaser s value (including FISIM and net indirect taxes) Sector million) 191,212.7 100.0% 205,914.0 GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 21

  22. The provisional constant annual GDP estimate (incl. oil) for 2017 is GH estimate for 2016 was GH 36,103.6 million. GH 39 39, ,175 175. .0 0 million while the This growth This translates growth rate translates into rate of into a a provisional of 8 8. .5 5% % for provisional annual for 2017 annual Oil Oil GDP GDP 2017. . The provisional constant annual GDP estimate (excl. oil) for 2017 is GH recorded for 2016 was GH 34,378.7 million. GH 34 34, ,378 378. .7 7 million. The value This growth This translates growth rate translates into rate of into a a provisional of 4 4. .9 9% % for provisional annual for 2017 annual non non- -Oil Oil GDP GDP 2017. . GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 22

  23. GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 23

  24. Constant ( (GHc 39,175.0 8,441.3 9,887.8 19,553.8 Constant GDP GHc Million) 39,175.0 GDP Growth rate (Percent) 8.5 8.4 16.7 4.3 Growth rate (Percent) 8.5 Sector Overall Agriculture Industry Services Sector Overall Agriculture Industry Services Million) GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 24

  25. The year-on-year GDP growth rate for Agriculture is 8.4% for 2017. The Fishing sub-sector recorded the highest year-on-year growth rate of 11.7% while the Forestry and Logging sub-sector recorded the lowest growth rate of 1.6%. 2016 annual GDP (GH million) Crops 2016 annual GDP 2017 annual GDP (GH million) 2017 annual GDP Y/Y Change Rate (%) Y/Y Change Rate (%) Agriculture Sub Agriculture Sub- -sector sector 6,321 9.4 5,780 751 o/w Cocoa Livestock Forestry & logging Fishing Total 640 714 784 512 17.3 5.4 1.6 11.7 8.4 753 796 572 Total 8.4 7,790 7,790 8,441 8,441 GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 25

  26. The year-on-year annual GDP growth rate for the Industry sector is 16.7% for 2017. The Mining & Quarrying sub-sector recorded the highest year- on-year annual GDP growth rate of 46.7% for 2017, while the Manufacturing sub-sector recorded the lowest (3.7%). 2016 annual 2016 annual GDP (GH million) 2017 annual GDP 2017 annual GDP (GH million) GDP Y/Y Change Rate (%) Y/Y Change Rate (%) Industry Sub- -sector Industry Sub Mining and Quarrying o/w Oil and Gas Manufacturing Electricity Water & Sewerage Construction Total sector 46.7 80.4 3.7 6.3 6.8 4.6 16.7 2,458 1,725 2,452 220 308 3,037 8,475 3,606 3,112 2,543 233 329 3,175 9,888 9,888 16.7 Total 8,475 GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 26

  27. For the year 2017, the Services sector recorded a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 4.3%. The Health & Social Work sub-sector recorded the highest year-on-year GDP growth rate of 14.4% while the Community, Social and Other Personal Activities sub-sector recorded the lowest growth rate of -3.8%. 2016 annual GDP (GH million) 2016 annual GDP 2017 2017 Y/Y Change Rate (%) Y/Y Change Rate (%) annual GDP annual GDP (GH million) Services Sub Trade, Repair of Vehicles, Household Goods Hotels and Restaurants Transport & Storage Information & Communication Financial & Insurance Activities Real Estate & Other Service Activities Public Administration & Defence Education Health & Social Work Community, Social & Other Personal Service Activities Total Services Sub- -sector sector 2,557 1,364 3,838 3,275 1,582 1,319 1,496 1,427 578 2,628 1,379 3,853 3,707 1,590 1,388 1,518 1,568 661 2.8 1.1 0.4 13.2 0.5 5.2 1.5 9.9 14.4 -3.8 4.3 1312 18,747 1,433 19,554 4.327 Total GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 18,747 19,554

  28. GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 28

  29. Economic Aggregate Population estimate (million) Exchange rate, Interbank average ( /$) Current GDP, incl. Oil (million GH ) Current GDP, excl. Oil (million GH ) Current GDP, incl. Oil (million US$) Per capita GDP (GH ) Per capita GDP (US$) Economic Aggregate 2016 28.31 3.92 167,353 205,914 164,099 195,200 42,685 5,911 1,508 2016 2017* 28.96 4.36 2017* 47,269 7,110 1,632 Growth Rates GDP (incl. Oil) at constant 2006 prices Non-Oil GDP at constant 2006 prices Change in GDP deflator *Provisional Growth Rates 3.7 5.0 17.8 8.5 4.9 13.4 GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 29

  30. The Q4 2017 GDP at current prices was estimated at GH 56,304.8 million. The corresponding value recorded for Q4 2016 was GH 47,351.5 million. In constant terms, the Q4 2017 GDP was estimated at GH 10,876.8 million. For Q4 2016, the estimated value was GH 10,057.8 million. The year-on-year quarterly GDP growth rate for Q4 2017 was 8.1% compared to the 4.5% recorded for Q4 2016. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate (seasonally adjusted) for Q4 2017 was 2.1%. The rate recorded for the third quarter of 2017 was 2.6%. GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 30

  31. The finalannual GDP estimate for 2016 at current prices is GH 167 167, ,353 353. .5 5 million. The corresponding per capita GDP for 2016 is GH 5,911. The 2016 final annual GDP at constant prices is estimated at GH 36 36, ,103 103. .6 6 million. The final annual growth rate for 2016 is 3.7%. 31 GDP Presentation April 11, 2018

  32. The provisionalannual GDP estimate for 2017 at current prices is GH 205 205, ,914 914. .0 0 million. The corresponding per capita GDP for 2017 is GH 7,110. The 2017 provisional annual GDP at constant prices is estimated at GH 39 39, ,175 175. .0 0 million. The provisional annual growth rate for 2017 is 8.5%. 32 GDP Presentation April 11, 2018

  33. GDP Presentation April 11, 2018 33

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