Supply Analysis Working Group Report to WMS
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September 2, 2020
Caitlin Smith, Chair
Pete Warnken, Vice Chair
Ian Haley, Vice Chair
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May SAWG: ERCOT described that Gibbons Creek met the
requirements in Planning Guide Section 5.4.9 Proof of Site Control
•
Planning Guide 5.4.9
Proof of Site Control Requirements:
–
(1) Before ERCOT will proceed with the initiation of an FIS, the IE must
submit to ERCOT proof of site control. To establish proof of site control, the
IE must demonstrate through an affiliated company, through a trustee, or
directly in its name that:
•
(a)The IE is the owner in fee simple of the real property to be utilized by
the facilities for which any new generation interconnection is sought;
•
(b)The IE holds a valid written leasehold interest in the real property to
be utilized by the facilities for which new generation interconnection is
sought;
•
(c)The IE holds a valid written option to purchase or obtain a leasehold
interest in the real property to be utilized by the facilities for which new
generation interconnection is sought; or
•
(d)The IE holds a duly executed written contract to purchase or obtain a
leasehold interest in the real property to be utilized by the facilities for
which new generation interconnection is sought.
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June SAWG, discussed options for addressing this:
–
Discussed items to increase transparency to Planning Guide
Section 5.4.9, including: ERCOT internal change request to add
already public information to the GIS:
•
To GIS Report, added column "Approval Date for Submission
of Proof of Site Control." This approval (from Planning
Guides 5.4.9) is a prerequisite for proceeding with a Full
Interconnection Study
•
The Site Control Date is the date when ERCOT determines
that the "proof of site control" requirement has been met
according to ERCOT Planning Guide Section 5.4.9. The
prerequisite for this determination is the uploading, via the
RIOO-IS system, of a copy of a valid contract, deed, lease or
agreement of the four conveyance types listed in the Section.
•
Added to GIS by ERCOT in August
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June & August SAWG, discussed NPRR language that would
change how planned restarts of retired/mothballed resources are
handled in the CDR
–
Change to Protocol Section 3.2.6.2.2 Total Capacity Estimate
–
Exclude resource previously mothballed or retired, unless proof
of site control is verified by ERCOT, excluding the Planning
Guide 5.4.9(c) “option to purchase or lease”
–
NPPR 1042 “Planned Capacity Adjustment in the CDR” filed by
Reliant
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Background:
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TAC Assignment: Develop and implement updated methodology used to
determine cost of new entry (CONE)
–
ERCOT previously presented a timeline for the study to be done in
coordination with every other LTSA (= every 4 years) and to feed into the
Reserve Margin Study
•
August SAWG Meeting:
–
Reviewed “Cost of New Entry and Peaker Net Margin Threshold Estimation”
OBD, to be filed with NPRR
•
Previously ERCOT presented as “Study Process and Methodology
Manual: Estimating Economically Optimum and Market Equilibrium
Reserve Margins (EORM and MERM)” with updated language for
8.3.Generator Cost of New Entry (CONE) based on previous feedback
to SAWG
–
CONE Studies NPRR to Protocols Section 4.4.11 has been reviewed since
2019
–
Consensus on these documents at SAWG, with no outstanding feedback
•
Next Steps:
–
ERCOT to move forward with drafts/filing
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ERCOT presented an update on NERC 2020 LTRA
Preparation
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Noted that July 15th is the summer cut-off date for
including planned resources in NERC LTRA
•
Stakeholder question/discussion around moving
CDR cut-off from June 1 to July 1 or July 15
•
Next Steps:
–
ERCOT will bring back proposed topics to
continue this discussion at September SAWG
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Background:
–
TAC Assignment: Development of probabilistic SARA and net
load forecast. Review of Resource Adequacy forecasts with
evaluation and possible implementation of probabilistic SARA
and net load forecast as supplements to current Resource
Adequacy reports.”
–
Completed and posted Probabilistic SARA Model
•
Final Model posted
http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/key_documents_lists/195
751/Probabilistic_SARA_Model_5-22-
2020_Public_NoMacros.xlsx
•
ERCOT presented to IEEE’s Resource Adequacy Working Group
and got very positive feedback, especially from other ISOs who
wanted to use a similar model
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Next Steps:
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Post Summer 2020, ERCOT to analyze:
•
Model forecast compared to performance of high scarcity
days with a variability in load (price responsive demand),
wind, and solar
–
Present that analysis to SAWG, then WMS
–
Discuss possible communications and reporting of a probabilistic
model
8
The report details discussions from the SAWG August meeting regarding site control requirements, transparency enhancements, and NPRR language changes related to retired resources. It also covers the CONE methodology and updates for determining cost of new entry, discussed in August SAWG sessions.
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Presentation Transcript
Supply Analysis Working Group Report to WMS September 2, 2020 Caitlin Smith, Chair Pete Warnken, Vice Chair Ian Haley, Vice Chair 1
SAWG August Meeting Discussions Following Gibbons Creek Inclusion in CDR May SAWG: ERCOT described that Gibbons Creek met the requirements in Planning Guide Section 5.4.9 Proof of Site Control Planning Guide 5.4.9 Proof of Site Control Requirements: (1) Before ERCOT will proceed with the initiation of an FIS, the IE must submit to ERCOT proof of site control. To establish proof of site control, the IE must demonstrate through an affiliated company, through a trustee, or directly in its name that: (a)The IE is the owner in fee simple of the real property to be utilized by the facilities for which any new generation interconnection is sought; (b)The IE holds a valid written leasehold interest in the real property to be utilized by the facilities for which new generation interconnection is sought; (c)The IE holds a valid written option to purchase or obtain a leasehold interest in the real property to be utilized by the facilities for which new generation interconnection is sought; or (d)The IE holds a duly executed written contract to purchase or obtain a leasehold interest in the real property to be utilized by the facilities for which new generation interconnection is sought. 2
SAWG August Meeting Discussions Following Gibbons Creek Inclusion in CDR June SAWG, discussed options for addressing this: Discussed items to increase transparency to Planning Guide Section 5.4.9, including: ERCOT internal change request to add already public information to the GIS: To GIS Report, added column "Approval Date for Submission of Proof of Site Control." This approval (from Planning Guides 5.4.9) is a prerequisite for proceeding with a Full Interconnection Study The Site Control Date is the date when ERCOT determines that the "proof of site control" requirement has been met according to ERCOT Planning Guide Section 5.4.9. The prerequisite for this determination is the uploading, via the RIOO-IS system, of a copy of a valid contract, deed, lease or agreement of the four conveyance types listed in the Section. Added to GIS by ERCOT in August 3
SAWG August Meeting Discussions Following Gibbons Creek Inclusion in CDR June & August SAWG, discussed NPRR language that would change how planned restarts of retired/mothballed resources are handled in the CDR Change to Protocol Section 3.2.6.2.2 Total Capacity Estimate Exclude resource previously mothballed or retired, unless proof of site control is verified by ERCOT, excluding the Planning Guide 5.4.9(c) option to purchase or lease NPPR 1042 Planned Capacity Adjustment in the CDR filed by Reliant 4
SAWG August Meeting CONE Methodology Documents Background: TAC Assignment: Develop and implement updated methodology used to determine cost of new entry (CONE) ERCOT previously presented a timeline for the study to be done in coordination with every other LTSA (= every 4 years) and to feed into the Reserve Margin Study August SAWG Meeting: Reviewed Cost of New Entry and Peaker Net Margin Threshold Estimation OBD, to be filed with NPRR Previously ERCOT presented as Study Process and Methodology Manual: Estimating Economically Optimum and Market Equilibrium Reserve Margins (EORM and MERM) with updated language for 8.3.Generator Cost of New Entry (CONE) based on previous feedback to SAWG CONE Studies NPRR to Protocols Section 4.4.11 has been reviewed since 2019 Consensus on these documents at SAWG, with no outstanding feedback Next Steps: ERCOT to move forward with drafts/filing 5
SAWG August Meeting NERC LTRA Update & CDR Date Discussion ERCOT presented an update on NERC 2020 LTRA Preparation Noted that July 15th is the summer cut-off date for including planned resources in NERC LTRA Stakeholder question/discussion around moving CDR cut-off from June 1 to July 1 or July 15 Next Steps: ERCOT will bring back proposed topics to continue this discussion at September SAWG 6
SAWG August Meeting Update on Probabilistic SARA Background: TAC Assignment: Development of probabilistic SARA and net load forecast. Review of Resource Adequacy forecasts with evaluation and possible implementation of probabilistic SARA and net load forecast as supplements to current Resource Adequacy reports. Completed and posted Probabilistic SARA Model Final Model posted http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/key_documents_lists/195 751/Probabilistic_SARA_Model_5-22- 2020_Public_NoMacros.xlsx ERCOT presented to IEEE s Resource Adequacy Working Group and got very positive feedback, especially from other ISOs who wanted to use a similar model 7
SAWG August Meeting Update on Probabilistic SARA Next Steps: Post Summer 2020, ERCOT to analyze: Model forecast compared to performance of high scarcity days with a variability in load (price responsive demand), wind, and solar Present that analysis to SAWG, then WMS Discuss possible communications and reporting of a probabilistic model 8
