Semi-annual Survey Spring 2019 Results & Analysis

CSLI Spring 2019 Survey Almost 7:30 Dem Club April 12, 2019

Center for the Study of Local Issues: Semi-annual Survey Spring, 2019 Conducted in March/April and October Multi-mode telephone and online Students used as interviewers Completions average 450-650: Spring 2019, 622 cases Margin of error for entire sample: 4.0% Weighted by gender, party and education level

Most important problems Semi-annual Survey Spring, 2019 Topics Right/wrong direction/economic conditions Support/Oppose national, state, local issues Seriousness of issues Job Approval, partisanship, elections

Most important problem: Fall 14 to Spring 19 40 37 35 32 32 31 30 30 28 25 25 20 20 19 18 14 15 12 10 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 12 11 11 9 10 7 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 8 8 7 4 7 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 4 6 6 6 5 5 2 2 0 Fa '14 Sp '15 Fa '15 Sp '16 Fa '16 Sp '17 Fa '17 Sp '18 Fa '18 Sp '19 Taxes too high Crime / drugs* Economy Education Transportation Growth / development Environment

R/W Direction by Demographics R/W Direction by Demographics County, State and Federal "Right" Direction Fall 2012 to Spring 2019 70 63 60 60 60 58 58 57 56 56 55 52 55 52 51 51 51 51 50 50 50 50 49 49 47 47 40 36 36 35 35 31 31 27 30 30 28 27 27 27 23 26 24 21 21 20 20 10 10 0 Fall '12 Spring Fall '13 Spring Fall '14 Spring Fall '15 Spring Fall '16 Spring Fall '17 Spring Fall '18 Spring '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 County State Nation Unaffil. Reps Reps Dems Overall Overall Dems Trump Trump Voters Voters 2020 29 42 65 Dem Dem President President Voters Voters 62 66 2 Right Direction Percentages for County, State and Nation by Vote for President 2020 and Party, Spring 2019 County County State State Nation Nation 51 58 27 40 48 44 62 63 13 51 72 22

Rate Econ Cond. County Economic Conditions Ratings for Anne Arundel County Spring 2007 to Spring 2019 80 75 7169 71 71 70 68 6465 65 6062 60 586059 60 59 59 57 52 57 57 55 49 53 52 51 49 50 50 49 4344 44 3637 4948 4644 3840 4849 43 4648 43 4647 4445 4142 41 45 44 4240 4041 40 373938 38 35 34 33 30 29 27 27 2527 25 22 1922 20 15 12101113 1211 111211109 12 12 12 10 10 10 9 6 8 8 8 8 8 5 7 6 53 31 2 2 3 7 6 6 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 Sp '07 Fa '07 Sp '08 Fa '08 Sp '09 Fa 09 Sp 10 Fa 10 Sp 11 Fa 11 Sp 12 Fa 12 Sp 13 Fa 13 Sp 14 Fa 14 Sp 15 Fa 15 Sp '16 Fa '16 Sp '17 Fa '17 Sp '18 Fa '18 Sp '19 Excellent+Good Excellent Good Fair Poor Don t know

Rate Econ Cond. All Levels Excellent+Good Scores Spring 2009 to Spring 2019 - County, State and Nation 80 75 70 71 71 66 70 68 64 65 63 63 63 60 60 57 56 53 53 51 50 5049 50 49 48 48 49 49 4648 46 44 45 45 44 43 41 40 40 40 38 3533 33 30 31 32 30 30 28 28 27 27 24 21 21 20 20 16 16 1214 13 11 11 11 119 10 5 0 Sp '09 Fa 09 Sp 10 Fa 10 Sp 11 Fa 11 Sp 12 Fa 12 Sp 13 Fa 13 Sp 14 Fa 14 Sp 15 Fa 15 Sp '16 Fa '16 Sp '17 Fa '17 Sp '18 Fa '18 Sp '19 County State Country

Economic Conditions by Gender Overall Overall Men Men Women Women Gap Gap F18 S19 F18 S19 F18 S19 S19 County County 75 71 80 76 70 67 9 State State 70 66 75 70 66 62 8 Nation Nation 50 49 59 59 42 44 15 Women less positive about the economy, especially at national level.

Gender and Econ. Conds. Percent Applies : Women More Economically Pressured than Men Gap Gap F18 F18 M M- -W Gap Gap S19 S19 M M- -W Overall Overall S19 S19 Condition Condition Men Men Women Women W W Taxes are too high in relation to the govt. services Taxes are too high in relation to the govt. services provided provided Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living cost of living Hard to afford the cost of education Hard to afford the cost of education Received a salary increase or other increase in Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently income recently Hard to afford the cost of food and groceries Hard to afford the cost of food and groceries Health care insurance is unavailable, too Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate/ expensive or inadequate/ Facing the possibility of unemployment Facing the possibility of unemployment Found a new or better job recently Found a new or better job recently 56 55 57 8 -2 40 36 45 -9 -9 37 38 37 -6 1 45 47 42 5 5 25 18 31 -12 -13 32 31 33 -8 1 8 12 10 15 6 -1 1 4 5 10 [1] The gap is measured by subtracting the score for women from the score for men. A negative gap value indicates that the item had a higher score among women than among men.

Econ Cond and Income Condition Condition Sp 19 Sp 19 $75k or less $75k or less Sp 19 Sp 19 $75,000+ $75,000+ Hard to afford cost of food and groceries 15 26 35 51 45 39 Unable to afford healthcare or medicine during the last year Hard to afford the cost of education Taxes are too high in relation to the government services provided 56 59 Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living Facing the possibility of unemployment 38 8 12 47 5 13 Found a new or better job recently Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently 52 29

National Issues by Party Graph 6: Percentage of Support by Party Registration for National Issues 90 81 81 80 80 80 73 73 70 63 60 60 59 59 60 57 57 55 54 54 50 44 44 43 43 37 43 40 37 37 34 34 29 29 25 25 30 23 23 23 23 23 20 13 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 0 A 2 percent wealth tax on A 2 percent wealth tax on households worth at least households worth at least $50 million $50 million Strong efforts to cut carbon Strong efforts to cut carbon emissions to limit climate emissions to limit climate change, even if it requires change, even if it requires lifestyle changes and higher lifestyle changes and higher costs costs Legalizing recreational Legalizing recreational marijuana at the federal marijuana at the federal level level Making public colleges and Making public colleges and universities tuition free universities tuition free President Trump s decision President Trump s decision to declare a national to declare a national emergency and redirect emergency and redirect funds to build a wall on our funds to build a wall on our border with Mexico border with Mexico Using a government Using a government shutdown to obtain a shutdown to obtain a desired policy outcome desired policy outcome Overall Dem Rep Unaffiliated

National Issues by Gender 80 69 66 70 59 57 60 51 49 46 45 50 43 43 42 37 40 34 30 30 30 23 22 21 17 20 13 10 0 A 2 percent wealth tax on households worth at least $50 million Strong efforts to cut carbon emissions to limit climate change, even if it requires lifestyle changes and higher costs Legalizing recreational marijuana at the federal level Making public colleges and universities tuition free President Trump s decision to declare a national emergency and redirect funds to build a wall on our border with Mexico Using a government shutdown to obtain a desired policy outcome -3 -10 -16 -20 -17 -18 Women consistently more liberal than men. -30 Overall Men Women Gap

Health Care Options Approach Level of appeal=> Approach Level of appeal=> Very Very Some Unsure Unsure Some what what 31 Not Not very very 30 33 6 One that reinforces reliance upon private or One that reinforces reliance upon private or employer employer- -based coverage based coverage One that provides an option to purchase coverage One that provides an option to purchase coverage on Medicaid or Medicare on Medicaid or Medicare One that largely replaces the existing system with a One that largely replaces the existing system with a Medicare Medicare- -for for- -all approach all approach 29 43 21 7 29 16 46 9 National Health Options "Very Appealing" by Party 60 48 47 50 38 33 40 29 29 27 26 24 30 20 18 20 9 10 0 One that reinforces reliance upon private or employer- based coverage One that provides an option to purchase coverage on Medicaid or Medicare One that largely replaces the existing system with a Medicare-for-all approach Overall Dem Rep Unaffiliated

State and Local Issues: Transportation Transportation State and Local Issues State and Local Issues Support Support Oppose Oppose Unsure/ Unsure/ NA NA Allowing affected counties to have a veto over any Allowing affected counties to have a veto over any building of a new bridge over the Chesapeake Bay building of a new bridge over the Chesapeake Bay (ONLINE ONLY) (ONLINE ONLY) Expanding the current Bay Bridge so that it can handle Expanding the current Bay Bridge so that it can handle more traffic more traffic 46 46 41 13 66 66 25 10 Increasing bus services from the Eastern Shore to Increasing bus services from the Eastern Shore to destinations in Anne Arundel County and to the DC destinations in Anne Arundel County and to the DC metro system metro system 71 71 16 13 Building a commuter rail line on Route 50 from the Building a commuter rail line on Route 50 from the Eastern Shore to the DC metro system with a stop in Eastern Shore to the DC metro system with a stop in Annapolis. Annapolis. Expanding bus routes or frequency within our county Expanding bus routes or frequency within our county 62 62 27 12 68 68 38 16 55 55 16 Increasing state gas tax for road improvements and Increasing state gas tax for road improvements and transit transit 7 Public wants more options, but reluctant to pay for them.

State and Local Issues: Raising Revenue, Racetracks, Schools Raising Revenue, Racetracks, Schools State and Local Issues State and Local Issues Support Support Oppose Oppose Unsure/ Unsure/ NA NA Raising revenue for schools and other priorities by increasing the local income tax less than one percentage point to levels found in Prince George s, Howard and Montgomery counties Legally bypassing limits imposed by the property revenue/tax cap to raise funds dedicated to public schools 47 47 6 52 34 14 Having Maryland provide matching subsidies for the renewal of Laurel race track Moving the Preakness from Pimlico to Laurel race track. 60 43 35 19 31 57 57 21 27 8 Requiring ninth graders to take a course about diversity and inclusion Enabling local school boards to set the start and stop date for the school year 37 6 Income tax gets split verdict. Racetrack issues not popular. Schools favor local school boards

State and Local Issues: Abortion, Guns, Local Elections Abortion, Guns, Local Elections State and Local Issues State and Local Issues Support Support Oppose Oppose Unsure/ Unsure/ NA NA Making it easier for a woman to have a late term abortion if her life or health is threatened (ONLINE ONLY) Requiring buyers of rifles and shotguns to have a qualifying license and be subject to a background check prior to purchase Adopting a system of public financing of local elections as some neighboring counties have done. Banning contributions to local officials and candidates from developers with projects pending approval before the county 51 36 13 78 20 2 41 33 27 80* 15 5 *Up from 68% in fall 2018 Gun control still strongly favored. Contributions from developers - restrictions favored; public financing less clear.

Some Issues by Party/Gender Overall Overall Dems Dems Reps Reps Unaffil Unaffil. . Men Men Women Women Making it easier for a woman to have a Making it easier for a woman to have a late term abortion if her life or health is late term abortion if her life or health is threatened (only asked online) threatened (only asked online) Requiring buyers of rifles and shotguns Requiring buyers of rifles and shotguns to have a qualifying license and be to have a qualifying license and be subject to a background check prior to subject to a background check prior to purchase purchase 76 76 51 25 50 45 60 94 94 78 63 71 66 90 Banning contributions to local officials Banning contributions to local officials and candidates from developers with and candidates from developers with projects pending approval before the projects pending approval before the county county Adopting a system of public financing of Adopting a system of public financing of local elections as some neighboring local elections as some neighboring counties have done. counties have done. 74 83 83 80 81 81 77 51 51 41 25 44 42 39

Seriousness of Issues Issue How serious=> Issue How serious=> Very Very Overall 60 56 48 48 42 39 37 34 32 18 15 Students 71 71 53 29 54 54 37 41 32 55 55 44 44 38 38 Drug use among high school students High cost of living Poorly managed growth Lack of affordable housing Lack of convenient public transportation Gun violence in public spaces Homelessness Low college graduation rates due to high cost Sexual harassment Police harassment of minorities

Presidential Vote 16 by Ideology and Party Presidential Vote 16 by Ideology and Party Overall Overall 39 38 8 11 3 99 Liberal Liberal 79 4 3 14 0 100 Moderate Moderate 46 25 13 10 5 99 Cons. Cons. 9 77 5 6 4 101 Dems Dems 76 9 5 9 1 100 Reps Reps 6 72 13 6 3 100 Unaffiliated Unaffiliated 30 33 6 19 13 101 Clinton Clinton Trump Trump Someone else Someone else Didn t vote Didn t vote NA/DK NA/DK Total Total Party Affiliation by Gender 25 Women predominate Men predominate 20 20 18 18 16 15 15 14 15 13 13 12 12 9 9 9 10 7 7 6 5 5 0 Democrat strong Democrat somewhat strong Democrat not strong Republican strong Republican somewhat strong Republican not strong Overall Men Women

Presidential Vote 16 by Ideology and Party Presidential Vote 16 by Ideology and Party Neither Neither Not Not Strong Strong Dem Dem Not Not Strong Strong Rep Rep Unaffil Unaffil Lean D Lean D Unaffil Unaffil Lean R Lean R Strong Strong Dem Dem Somewhat Somewhat Strong Dem Strong Dem Strong Strong Rep Rep Somewhat Somewhat Strong Rep Strong Rep Pres Vote 16 84 84 4 4 3 6 101 78 78 10 5 5 3 101 87 87 0 13 0 0 100 0 0 53 53 5 29 13 100 34 34 26 9 24 8 101 Clinton Clinton Trump Trump Someone else Someone else Didn t vote Didn t vote NA/DK NA/DK Total Total Ideology Liberal Liberal Moderate Moderate Conservative Conservative Unsure/DK Unsure/DK Total Total 25 47 47 12 11 5 100 0 5 27 35 35 16 15 7 100 83 83 2 13 2 100 64 64 13 11 6 99 28 58 58 0 14 100 0 4 62 62 25 11 3 101 41 24 59 59 15 3 101 5 1 4 Women predominate 53 53 6 0 100 Men predominate 56 56 34 6 100 34 66 66 0 100 68 68 19 9 100 14 82 82 0 101 46 48 48 6 101 Dem Dem Rep Rep Unaffiliated Unaffiliated Party Registration and Strength of Party Affiliation Strong (lean Dem) Strong (lean Dem) Somewhat strong (lean Rep) Somewhat strong (lean Rep) Not strong (lean neither) Not strong (lean neither) 37 41 22 38 36 26 21 30 49

Presidential Vote: 2020 by Party 70 64 63 60 Party voting nearly identical for Dems and Reps. Unaffiliated Rep leaners a little less loyal than Dem leaners. 50 43 41 37 40 33 33 32 30 25 24 24 20 19 20 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 10 0 President Trump Vote for a Democrat Vote for another candidate NA/DK Overall Dem Rep Unaffiliated Men Women

Democrat Choices - President 25.0% 23.6% 20.0% 14.5% 15.0% 10.7%10.0% 9.0% 10.0% 7.1% 6.2%5.9% 5.0% 3.4%3.1% 2.5% 2.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Job Approval for County Executive, Job Approval for County Executive, Governor and President Governor and President 100 90 Neuman (CE) 86 Hogan (Gov.) Obama (Pres.) 80 76 76 75 73 72 71 70 60 56 54 50 49 50 46 48 44 46 45 37 45 41 43 38 41 34 39 35 40 39 34 33 32 30 27 Scaled approval question used in Sp 2019 O'Malley (Gov.) 20 1st poll after Trump elected 1st Poll after 2014 election 10 0 Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp '15 Fa '15 Sp '16 Fa '16 Sp '17 Fa '17 Sp '18 Sp '19 County Executive Governor President

Presidential Job Approval by Party Registration Presidential Job Approval by Party Registration Fall 09 to Spring 19 Fall 09 to Spring 19 Obama Period Trump Period 90 80 76 76 75 74 73 73 72 71 70 70 70 67 66 66 64 63 62 61 60 60 57 54 53 53 53 50 49 47 46 40 38 37 37 36 36 35 34 34 33 32 30 26 24 24 23 20 18 17 16 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 0 Fa '09Sp '10Fa '10Sp '11Fa '11Sp '12Fa '12Sp '13Fa '13Sp '14Fa '14Sp '15Fa '15Sp '16Fa '16Sp '17Fa '17Sp '18Sp '19 Dem Unaffil. Rep

Presidential Job Approval: CSLI vs. Gallup/RCP 60 53 54 5052 Bush Period Obama Period Trump Period 5049 50 49 48 47 47 47 47 47 47 46 46 45 4345 44 44 44 42 43 42 41 40 40 4039 40 39 3738 37 36 36 35 32 3534 34 32 31 30 28 30 24 20 10 0 F '07 S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '13 S '14 F '14 S '15 F '15 S 16 F '16 S '17 F '17 S '18 S '19 CSLI Gallup/RCP

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