North Atlantic Hurricane Drought and Aerosol Impact
Sulfate Aerosols and the Late
20th Century North Atlantic
Hurricane Drought
Kerry Emanuel
Lorenz Center
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
August-October MDR SST and Storm Lifetime
Maximum Power Dissipation
U.S. Landfall Power Dissipation
Sulfate Aerosols and North Atlantic
Hurricanes
•
During the late 20
th
Century, global aerosol radiative forcing is
thought to be of the same order as CO
2
radiative forcing
•
Per unit sea surface temperature change, shortwave forcing is
roughly twice as effective as longwave forcing in changing
potential intensity
•
Much of the interannual variability of aerosol forcing over the
tropical North Atlantic in summer is thought to be owing to
the interaction of sulfate aerosols of European origin with
African dust (Li-Jones and Prospero, 1998)
Variation of Potential Intensity with Ocean Heat Flux, Surface
Wind Speed, CO
2
, and Solar Forcing
Emanuel, K., and A. Sobel, 2013:
Response of tropical sea surface temperature, precipitation, and
tropical cyclone-related variables to changes in global and local forcing.
J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys.
,
5
,
doi:10.1002/jame.20032
August-October MDR SST
Hypothesis:
•
Multi-decadal variability of North Atlantic hurricane activity in
the late 20
th
Century is owing to variations in shortwave
and longwave radiative forcing
•
Residual quasi-decadal hurricane variability is owing to a
natural oscillatory mode of the North Atlantic, nominally
equivalent to the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)
Test:
•
Separate North Atlantic Storm Maximum Power Dissipation
into two parts: a) Long-period variability (10-year running
average) and b) quasi-decadal variability (residual)
•
Use multiple linear regression to regress long-period signal
onto 20-year lagged log(CO
2
) and European sulfate
emissions
•
Correlate residual (quasi-decadal) signal in storm maximum
power dissipation with North Atlantic potential intensity from
NCEP reanalysis
Linearly regress European sulfates and log (CO
2
) onto low-
pass-filtered storm maximum power dissipation
Spectral peak at ~6 years
Multi-decadal Variability in 25 CMIP5 Climate Models
From Ting et al,
J. Climate, 2015
. Data courtesy Mingfang Ting.
Spectral peaks
from 5 to 20
years
CMIP5 multi-decadal signal regressed onto
potential intensity
From Ting et al,
J. Climate, 2015
. Data courtesy Mingfang Ting.
Results from downscaling tropical cyclones from HADGEM2-
ES, 1950-2005, 100 North Atlantic events per year
Summary
•
A pronounced “hurricane drought” affected the North Atlantic
from the 1960s through the early 1990s
•
Hurricane power dissipation during this period was strongly
inversely correlated with European sulfur emissions
•
Spatial pattern of potential intensity projected onto hurricane
power dissipation consistent with strong radiative forcing
over the main development region
•
Spatial pattern of residual potential intensity changes, with
multi-decadal signal removed, consistent with CMIP5
signatures of Atlantic quasi-decadal natural variability
•
Of 7 CMIP5 models downscaled, only the HADGEM model
captures the Atlantic hurricane drought
This study explores the influence of sulfate aerosols on the late 20th-century North Atlantic Hurricane drought, focusing on the interaction of European sulfate aerosols and African dust. It investigates the radiative forcing effects and variability in hurricane activity, proposing hypotheses related to radiative forcing variations and natural oscillatory modes. The analysis considers factors like ocean heat flux, surface wind speed, CO2, and solar forcing, with regression analysis to understand storm variability.
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Presentation Transcript
Sulfate Aerosols and the Late 20th Century North Atlantic Hurricane Drought Kerry Emanuel Lorenz Center Massachusetts Institute of Technology
August-October MDR SST and Storm Lifetime Maximum Power Dissipation
Sulfate Aerosols and North Atlantic Hurricanes During the late 20th Century, global aerosol radiative forcing is thought to be of the same order as CO2 radiative forcing Per unit sea surface temperature change, shortwave forcing is roughly twice as effective as longwave forcing in changing potential intensity Much of the interannual variability of aerosol forcing over the tropical North Atlantic in summer is thought to be owing to the interaction of sulfate aerosols of European origin with African dust (Li-Jones and Prospero, 1998)
Variation of Potential Intensity with Ocean Heat Flux, Surface Wind Speed, CO2, and Solar Forcing Emanuel, K., and A. Sobel, 2013: Response of tropical sea surface temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclone-related variables to changes in global and local forcing. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, doi:10.1002/jame.20032
Hypothesis: Multi-decadal variability of North Atlantic hurricane activity in the late 20th Century is owing to variations in shortwave and longwave radiative forcing Residual quasi-decadal hurricane variability is owing to a natural oscillatory mode of the North Atlantic, nominally equivalent to the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)
Test: Separate North Atlantic Storm Maximum Power Dissipation into two parts: a) Long-period variability (10-year running average) and b) quasi-decadal variability (residual) Use multiple linear regression to regress long-period signal onto 20-year lagged log(CO2) and European sulfate emissions Correlate residual (quasi-decadal) signal in storm maximum power dissipation with North Atlantic potential intensity from NCEP reanalysis
Linearly regress European sulfates and log (CO2) onto low- pass-filtered storm maximum power dissipation
Map of r2 between Storm Max PDI and NCEP PI 60oN 0.6 48oN 0.5 36oN 0.4 24oN 0.3 12oN 0.2 0o 0.1 100oW 20oW 80oW 40oW 60oW
Multi-decadal Variability in 25 CMIP5 Climate Models Spectral peaks from 5 to 20 years From Ting et al, J. Climate, 2015. Data courtesy Mingfang Ting.
CMIP5 multi-decadal signal regressed onto potential intensity From Ting et al, J. Climate, 2015. Data courtesy Mingfang Ting.
Results from downscaling tropical cyclones from HADGEM2- ES, 1950-2005, 100 North Atlantic events per year
Summary A pronounced hurricane drought affected the North Atlantic from the 1960s through the early 1990s Hurricane power dissipation during this period was strongly inversely correlated with European sulfur emissions Spatial pattern of potential intensity projected onto hurricane power dissipation consistent with strong radiative forcing over the main development region Spatial pattern of residual potential intensity changes, with multi-decadal signal removed, consistent with CMIP5 signatures of Atlantic quasi-decadal natural variability Of 7 CMIP5 models downscaled, only the HADGEM model captures the Atlantic hurricane drought
