ENSO: A Climate & Oceanography Course Approach
ENSO:
A Problem-Based Approach
Designed for use in a year long dual credit high school Climate and
Oceanography Course
Author: Nancy Flowers
Created: October 18, 2014
Edited by Miriam Bertram July 21, 2020 for use in pressbooks with
permission from the author.
Brief Bio
I’ve been teaching at Everett
High School for 28+ years
Core teaching assignments
have been AP Chemistry and
General Chemistry
I have taught the dual
enrollment UWHS Ocean
101 for several years.
I helped write curriculum for
UWHS ATMS 211 (climate)
and taught the full course.
The Problem
Ski season is approaching, and your family must
decide by Oct. 31 whether to buy season passes at
Stevens Pass, or pay the more expensive daily rate.
What information would you need to collect to
make your decision?
April 5, 2014
El Niño & PNW Winters
In your opinion, how do El
Niño and La Niña events
impact temperature and
precipitation in the Pacific
Northwest?
Do you have any personal
history related to El Niño
or La Niña events?
How might this impact your
decision to buy a season
pass, instead of paying the
higher daily rate?
Please insert
your own
exciting ski
photo.
Typical El Niño Winter Pattern
To make our decision, we need to…
1.
Understand neutral (normal), El Niño
and La Niña conditions in the tropical
Pacific.
2.
Use tropical Pacific buoy data to make a
climate prediction for winter, 2014-2015.
3.
Examine the correlation between
precipitation patterns in the Pacific
Northwest and El Niño/La Niña events.
Facilitated small group
discussions
How are atmospheric and oceanic conditions
different during neutral (normal), El Niño and La
Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific?
PMEL Data
The TAO/TRITON
system consists of
70 moored buoys in
the tropical Pacific
Data is collected and
delivered via satellite
to shore-based
stations
Photo downloaded from
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/moorings
.
Working with TAO/Triton Data
Click on Lat/Long plots
Use Monthly time range
Select 2011, December
Click
Make Plot
!
You are viewing a Sea Surface Temperature graph
from 10 °S to 10 °N, across the Pacific from South
America to Australia
December, 2011:
Normal, El Niño or La Niña? Evidence?
Now try the same analysis:
December, 1997
El Niño or La Niña? Evidence?
Make a plot for September, 2014
What’s your analysis?
Tropical Pacific SSTs
Tropical Pacific SSTs are normally cold (<
26 °C) along a narrow band along the
equator in the central and eastern Pacific
This is caused by easterly trade winds along
the west coast of South America and
Ekman transport of surface water towards
the west
Cold water upwells along the west coast of
South America and moves west along the
equator
Coastal Upwelling Animation
Cold Tongue Index
The region of equatorial cold SSTs is
referred to as the “cold tongue”
The cold tongue index is defined as the
SST anomaly from 6 °N to 6 °S and 90
°W to 180 °W
Reading the CTI
A
positive CTI
means SSTs in the
region are
warmer
than normal
◦
El Niño conditions
A
negative CTI
means SSTs in the
region are
colder
than normal
◦
La Niño conditions
Data Analysis
CTI and precipitation in Indonesia
Open the ENSO investigation
spreadsheet
Select the first tab—Cold Tongue,
Indonesia
Select cells A1-B61. Make a scatter plot of
year vs. CTI.
Can you spot the La Niña and El Niño
years?
Data Analysis
CTI vs. Indonesia Precipitation
Click and drag to select cells A1-C61.
Insert a scatter plot.
Right-click on the red Indonesia line,
select “Secondary Axis”
Stretch the graph out for ease of viewing.
CTI vs. Precip in Indonesia
Can you see any trends?
Using Math
We can use
statistics to confirm
our visual
inspection
We will calculate
the correlation
coefficient between
CTI and Indonesia
Precipitation
Calculating the Correlation
Coefficient
In cell F57, enter the following formula:
=correl(B31:B52,C31:C52)
ENTER
View the Correlation Coefficient in cell
F57
Interpreting the Correlation
Coefficient
1
strong direct relationship
-1
strong inverse relationship
0
no relationship
For a correlation coefficient of
-0.889
,
describe the relationship between the
CTI and Indonesian Precipitation
Back to Ski Season!
Based on predicted climate impacts on the
second tab in the SS, predict precipitation
patterns in Everett during a typical La Niña
and El Niño year
Predict the El Niño or La Niña impact on
snowfall at Mt. Rainier
PNW Data
Note Mt. Rainer precipitation is yearly
snowfall
Everett data is Oct-Mar rainfall
Make a scatter plot of CTI vs. Snowfall at
Mt. Rainier
◦
Calculate the correlation coefficient
Make a scatter plot of CTI vs. Oct-Mar
Rainfall in Everett
◦
Calculate the correlation coefficient
Decision Time!
Based on your analysis of:
◦
September TAO SST data in the tropical Pacific
◦
Correlation of conditions in the tropical Pacific
(CTI) with historic precipitation and snowpack
data in the PNW
Should you buy a season’s ski pass this year?
What Does Cliff Say?
Blog
Dive into ENSO through a problem-based curriculum designed for high school Climate and Oceanography courses. Follow the journey of understanding El Niño and La Niña events, their impact on the Pacific Northwest, and how they influence decisions such as choosing between season passes and daily rates for ski activities.
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ENSO: A Problem-Based Approach Designed for use in a year long dual credit high school Climate and Oceanography Course Author: Nancy Flowers Created: October 18, 2014 Edited by Miriam Bertram July 21, 2020 for use in pressbooks with permission from the author.
Brief Bio I ve been teaching at Everett High School for 28+ years Core teaching assignments have been AP Chemistry and General Chemistry I have taught the dual enrollment UWHS Ocean 101 for several years. I helped write curriculum for UWHS ATMS 211 (climate) and taught the full course.
The Problem Ski season is approaching, and your family must decide by Oct. 31 whether to buy season passes at Stevens Pass, or pay the more expensive daily rate. What information would you need to collect to make your decision?
El Nio & PNW Winters In your opinion, how do El Ni o and La Ni a events impact temperature and precipitation in the Pacific Northwest? Do you have any personal history related to El Ni o or La Ni a events? How might this impact your decision to buy a season pass, instead of paying the higher daily rate? Please insert your own exciting ski photo.
To make our decision, we need to 1. Understand neutral (normal), El Ni o and La Ni a conditions in the tropical Pacific. 2. Use tropical Pacific buoy data to make a climate prediction for winter, 2014-2015. 3. Examine the correlation between precipitation patterns in the Pacific Northwest and El Ni o/La Ni a events.
Facilitated small group discussions How are atmospheric and oceanic conditions different during neutral (normal), El Ni o and La Ni a conditions in the tropical Pacific?
PMEL Data The TAO/TRITON system consists of 70 moored buoys in the tropical Pacific Data is collected and delivered via satellite to shore-based stations Photo downloaded from https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/moorings.
Working with TAO/Triton Data Click on Lat/Long plots Use Monthly time range Select 2011, December Click Make Plot! You are viewing a Sea Surface Temperature graph from 10 S to 10 N, across the Pacific from South America to Australia
December, 2011: Normal, El Ni o or La Ni a? Evidence?
Now try the same analysis: December, 1997 El Ni o or La Ni a? Evidence?
Make a plot for September, 2014 What s your analysis?
Tropical Pacific SSTs Tropical Pacific SSTs are normally cold (< 26 C) along a narrow band along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific This is caused by easterly trade winds along the west coast of South America and Ekman transport of surface water towards the west Cold water upwells along the west coast of South America and moves west along the equator Coastal Upwelling Animation
Cold Tongue Index The region of equatorial cold SSTs is referred to as the cold tongue The cold tongue index is defined as the SST anomaly from 6 N to 6 S and 90 W to 180 W
Reading the CTI A positive CTI means SSTs in the region are warmer than normal El Ni o conditions A negative CTI means SSTs in the region are colder than normal La Ni o conditions
Data Analysis CTI and precipitation in Indonesia Open the ENSO investigation spreadsheet Select the first tab Cold Tongue, Indonesia Select cells A1-B61. Make a scatter plot of year vs. CTI. Can you spot the La Ni a and El Ni o years?
Data Analysis Year CTI Index El Ni o or La Ni a? High or low precipitation expected? 1951 0.76 1955 -1.12 1982 2.06 1997 2.10 2000 -0.64 2007 -1.27
CTI vs. Indonesia Precipitation Click and drag to select cells A1-C61. Insert a scatter plot. Right-click on the red Indonesia line, select Secondary Axis Stretch the graph out for ease of viewing.
CTI vs. Precip in Indonesia 2.50 0.00012 2.00 0.0001 1.50 1.00 0.00008 0.50 Cold Tongue Index 0.00006 0.00 Indonesia Precipitation 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 -0.50 0.00004 -1.00 0.00002 -1.50 -2.00 0 Can you see any trends?
Using Math We can use statistics to confirm our visual inspection We will calculate the correlation coefficient between CTI and Indonesia Precipitation
Calculating the Correlation Coefficient In cell F57, enter the following formula: =correl(B31:B52,C31:C52) ENTER View the Correlation Coefficient in cell F57
Interpreting the Correlation Coefficient 1 strong direct relationship -1 strong inverse relationship 0 no relationship For a correlation coefficient of -0.889, describe the relationship between the CTI and Indonesian Precipitation
Back to Ski Season! Based on predicted climate impacts on the second tab in the SS, predict precipitation patterns in Everett during a typical La Ni a and El Ni o year Predict the El Ni o or La Ni a impact on snowfall at Mt. Rainier
PNW Data Note Mt. Rainer precipitation is yearly snowfall Everett data is Oct-Mar rainfall Make a scatter plot of CTI vs. Snowfall at Mt. Rainier Calculate the correlation coefficient Make a scatter plot of CTI vs. Oct-Mar Rainfall in Everett Calculate the correlation coefficient
1400 2.50 2.00 1200 1.50 1000 1.00 800 0.50 Snowfall, Paradise, Mt. Rainier; inches 0.00 600 Cold Tongue Index -0.50 400 -1.00 200 -1.50 0 -2.00 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 40 2.50 2.00 35 1.50 30 1.00 25 0.50 Oct-Mar Rainfall, Everett; inches 20 0.00 Cold Tongue Index 15 -0.50 10 -1.00 5 -1.50 0 -2.00 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Decision Time! Based on your analysis of: September TAO SST data in the tropical Pacific Correlation of conditions in the tropical Pacific (CTI) with historic precipitation and snowpack data in the PNW Should you buy a season s ski pass this year?
What Does Cliff Say? Blog
