Earth System Collaborations and Reanalyses Workshop Discussions

In a series of workshops and discussions, topics surrounding collaborations within the field of Earth system analysis were explored. Key points included the need for better understanding of specific physics-related issues, the importance of budget balancing for carbon cycling, and utilizing a variety of reanalyses to estimate uncertainty. Various working groups and projects were proposed, focusing on areas such as ocean properties, climate predictions, ENSO diversity, and regional hydroclimate experiments.

• Earth System
• Collaborations
• Reanalyses
• Workshop
• Climate Predictions

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1. POS Summary Report Nick Bond Mike Bosilovich

2. OCB Discussion Extended discussion on collaborations Potentially with AMOC Not in a position (knowledge of needs or independent expertise) to propose a WG at present; open to further discussion With better knowledge of specific issues related to physics can provide help, especially on aspects related to sub-surface ocean properties. After May 2012 Reanalysis Conference, may make sense to propose a WG on reanalysis involving OCB community (tracer-conserving analyses)

3. Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA) Workshop: Reanalyses improving Impact of observation system changes Integrating Earth systems Issues raised here Budget imbalances are detrimental to carbon cycling and other uses (Action?) Users should make use of increments (residuals) Need to exploit multitude of reanalyses: rough estimate of uncertainty (e.g. Yan Xue s evaluation) IESA Working Group: Wait for outcome of the WCRP International Conference on Reanalyses

4. Terrestrial Regional North American Hydroclimate Experiment (TRACE) Discussions forming out of Pan-GEWEX (2010) Objectives: Providing regional scale climate predictions for stresses on water supply and management Likely developing observational resources, hydrologic modeling Needs global scale predictions for large scale features Ultimately, overlap in numerous topics with US CLIVAR panels Reaching out to USCLIVAR, bridging GEWEX work a favorable effort; Fundable (Rosen) Actions: Provide USCLIVAR with workshop report Joint meeting with USCLIVAR at OSC anyone interested in being added to telecons Some comments to take back; USCLIVAR position?

5. ENSO Diversity WG Prospectus (Capotondi, Kirtman) Started prospectus after last Summit: Focus on central Pacific ENSO, Strong WG formed Review literature on: examine evaluation methods and shortcomings for broader perspective Parse differences and examine mechanisms (link with GW signal, NPGO, hurricanes, extreme events) Online documentation development Tasks Longitudinal position of the warming (obs) Examine CMIP5 performance on ENSO diversity Deliver: White paper to BAMS; Workshop in 2ndyr Need more clarity on conventional versus unusual ENSO and the characterization metrics POS Supports WG proposal goes forward

6. Synthesis of Upper Ocean heat Budgets in Eastern Basins WG Prospectus (de Szoeke) Motivation: Modeled (SST and fluxes) errors against the buoy obs; warming oceans too much (eastern boundary currents) Need consistent approach to estimating the heat budget with community involvement Prospectus in formative state Working Group names need to be invited: Encourage community consensus on the way forward

7. Monitoring Climate Indices from Ocean Reanalyses Review (Xue) Using subsurface ocean data from ocean reanalyses A real-time ensemble could provide a useful tool with uncertainty estimate Developed from OceanObs 09 international group CPC GODAS Monitoring Page Coordinating with NOAA Fisheries looking at coastal upwelling Objectives: identify gaps in obs system, DA systems, IC for ocean init.; develop real time climate indices Should be a major benefit to Ocean reanalysis developers; how to encourage feedback to developers? Limitation: not all ocean reanalyses available in real time Going Forward: Write a letter of support from USCLIVAR to CLIVAR; and data developers encourage data availability; populate reanalysis.org oceans section

8. Extremes: Societal sectors Heatwaves (interaction with drought), cold spell, record events, extreme precipitation ENSO/Land modulation of extremes Model representation of precipitation PDF is different from that of observations Inline with USCLIVAR objectives and developing a community effort Looking Forward: Interest in developing a working group prospectus (Sasha, Matt, Mike) Links with PPAI; Also ENSO Diversity WG