Amendments to WIPPS Manual for Climate Prediction at INFCOM-3, April 2024
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Third Session of the Infrastructure Commission
(INFCOM-3, 15-19 April 2024)
David RICHARDSON / Chair SC-ESMP
17 April 2024
Doc.8.4(1) Amendments to the Manual on WIPPS
THREE draft Recommendations
•
Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/1 – for
weather
prediction
General WIPPS
Global/Limited-area deterministic/ensemble NWP
•
Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 – for
climate
prediction
Sub-seasonal forecasts, Long-range prediction
Annual to decadal prediction, global climate reanalysis
•
Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/3 – for
water and related
environmental
prediction
Nuclear/non-nuclear environmental emergency response
Marine emergency response, Global storm surge prediction
Atmospheric sand and dust storm forecasts, Vegetation fire and smoke
pollution forecasts
Doc.8.4(1) Amendments to the Manual on WIPPS
Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 – for climate prediction
•
Develop the functions and products of two new types of WIPPS activities
regarding
global climate reanalysis
and
coordination of assessment of
multiple climate reanalysis
-
Annex 1
Centre for Global Climate Reanalysis (GCR)
Centre for coordination of assessment of multiple
climate reanalysis
•
Mandatory functions
•
Collect an agreed set of mandatory products
from GCR centres
•
Interpolate the collected products onto a
common horizontal grid, generate climatology
and make them available
•
Provide a set of graphical products
•
Make a set of tools to visualize the products
•
Recommended functions
•
Define and provide common evaluation
metrics to compare
etc…
Doc.8.4(1) Amendments to the Manual on WIPPS
Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 – for climate prediction
•
Introduce the concept of the ‘the
contributing centre’ to the WIPPS
activity of coordination of multi-
model ensembles for sub-
seasonal forecasts (LC-SSFMME) -
Annex 3
•
Remove password protection for
downloading digital products from
LC-LRFMME and provide snow
water equivalent and other
variables as recommended
products -
Annex5
Doc.8.4(1) Amendments to the Manual on WIPPS
Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 – for climate prediction
•
Introduce the provision of
Global
Annual to Decadal Climate Update
(GADCU)
as a mandatory function of
lead centre for conducting the
coordination of annual to decadal
climate prediction (LC-ADCP) -
Annex 6
•
Rearrange the contents structure of
WIPPS activities (global numerical sub-
seasonal forecasts, global numerical long-
range prediction, coordination of multi-
model ensembles for sub-seasonal
forecasts, and coordination of multi-
model ensemble prediction for long-range
forecasts) -
Annexes 2, 3, 4, and 5
Doc.8.4(1) Amendments to the Manual on WIPPS
Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 – for climate prediction
•
Confirm the capabilities of centres applying for the designation of the
following WIPPS centres to be officially designated -
Annex 7
:
a)
Centres for conducting global numerical sub‑seasonal forecasts: Brazil (Centro de
Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC)), China, Japan and Russia,
b)
Centres for conducting the global climate reanalysis: USA (National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA)) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF),
c)
Lead Centre for conducting coordination of assessment of multiple climate reanalysis:
ECMWF
d)
RCC Network for the Arctic (ArcRCC-Network)
•
Change the names of WIPPS activities:
a)
Global numerical sub‑seasonal forecasts
global sub‑seasonal prediction,
b)
Global numerical long-range prediction
global seasonal prediction
•
Inclusion of information regarding the linkage of the Climate Service
Information System (CSIS) to the WIPPS in the Manual on the WIPPS -
Annex 8
draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2
•
Contribution from Members
WiP [14 Apr 2024] – China; USA; Hong Kong, China;
Draft Recommendation – China
Noting further
that China submitted the application for a Centre
conducting global climate reanalysis,
[China]
draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2
Annex 1 – USA
2.2.1.x
Global Climate Reanalysis
2.2.1.x.1 Centres conducting global climate reanalysis (GCR) shall:
(a)
Produce global climate reanalyses at the surface, near-surface and throughout the atmosphere;
(b)
All reanalysis products (Appendix A) must be updated to include the previous month within 60 days for
the end of current month;
[U.S.A.]
(b) Update all reanalysis products listed in Appendix A to include the previous
month within 60 days of the end of the current month,
2.2.2.x Coordination of assessment of multiple climate reanalysis
2.2.2.x.1 Centre(s) conducting the assessment of multiple climate reanalyses (Lead Centre(s) for Global
Climate Reanalysis) shall:
(g) All reanalysis products (Appendix XX) must be updated to include the previous month within 90 days
for the end of current month;
[U.S.A.]
(g) Update all reanalysis products listed in Appendix A to include the previous
month within 90 days for the end of current month;
(h) Ensure all products cover at least the most recent WMO climatological reference period.
[U.S.A.]
draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2
Annex 3 – Hong Kong, China
2.2.2.2 Coordination of multi‑model ensembles for sub‑seasonal forecasts
Centre(s) coordinating SSF multi‑model ensembles (Lead Centre(s) for SSFMME) shall:
(
e
c
)
Redistribute
contributing centre
digital
products
forecast data as described
listed
in
Appendix 2.2.
44
43
[Hong Kong, China]
for those
GPCs-SSF
contributing centres
[Hong Kong, China]
that allow it
, as described
in Appendix 2.2.44
[Hong Kong, China]
;
Appendix 2.2.43. Minimum information to be available from the Lead Centre(s) for
sub‑seasonal forecast multi‑model ensembles
1.
Global Producing Centre
Digital
products
Global fields of forecast and hindcast as supplied by GPCs‑SSF, including (for GPCs that allow redistribution
of their digital data)
d
D
aily
fields
mean
global field of forecast variables from contributing centres
from
for
individual
forecasts
ensemble members
for at least
each of
the four weeks following the forecast
initialization date:
[Hong Kong, China]
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wmo.int
The document discusses amendments to the Manual on WIPPS for climate prediction, including new recommendations for weather, climate, water, and environmental prediction activities. It introduces concepts such as Global Climate Reanalysis and the coordination of multi-model ensembles for sub-seasonal forecasts. The provision of Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is also highlighted as a mandatory function for lead centers conducting climate prediction. Various functions and products related to climate analysis and assessment are detailed in the document.
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Presentation Transcript
Item 8.4(1)/2 Amendments to the Manual on the WIPPS (WMO-No. 485) for climate prediction Third Session of the Infrastructure Commission (INFCOM-3, 15-19 April 2024) David RICHARDSON / Chair SC-ESMP 17 April 2024
Doc.8.4(1) Amendments to the Manual on WIPPS THREE draft Recommendations Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/1 for weather prediction General WIPPS Global/Limited-area deterministic/ensemble NWP Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 for climate prediction Sub-seasonal forecasts, Long-range prediction Annual to decadal prediction, global climate reanalysis Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/3 for water and related environmental prediction Nuclear/non-nuclear environmental emergency response Marine emergency response, Global storm surge prediction Atmospheric sand and dust storm forecasts, Vegetation fire and smoke pollution forecasts
Doc.8.4(1) Amendments to the Manual on WIPPS Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 for climate prediction Develop the functions and products of two new types of WIPPS activities regarding global climate reanalysis and coordination of assessment of multiple climate reanalysis - Annex 1 Centre for coordination of assessment of multiple climate reanalysis Mandatory functions Collect an agreed set of mandatory products from GCR centres Interpolate the collected products onto a common horizontal grid, generate climatology and make them available Provide a set of graphical products Make a set of tools to visualize the products Recommended functions Define and provide common evaluation metrics to compare etc Centre for Global Climate Reanalysis (GCR)
Doc.8.4(1) Amendments to the Manual on WIPPS Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 for climate prediction Introduce the concept of the the contributing centre to the WIPPS activity of coordination of multi- model ensembles for sub- seasonal forecasts (LC-SSFMME) - Annex 3 Remove password protection for downloading digital products from LC-LRFMME and provide snow water equivalent and other variables as recommended products -Annex5
Doc.8.4(1) Amendments to the Manual on WIPPS Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 for climate prediction Introduce the provision of Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU) as a mandatory function of lead centre for conducting the coordination of annual to decadal climate prediction (LC-ADCP) - Annex 6 Rearrange the contents structure of WIPPS activities (global numerical sub- seasonal forecasts, global numerical long- range prediction, coordination of multi- model ensembles for sub-seasonal forecasts, and coordination of multi- model ensemble prediction for long-range forecasts) - Annexes 2, 3, 4, and 5
Doc.8.4(1) Amendments to the Manual on WIPPS Draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 for climate prediction Confirm the capabilities of centres applying for the designation of the following WIPPS centres to be officially designated - Annex 7: a) Centres for conducting global numerical sub-seasonal forecasts: Brazil (Centro de Previs o de Tempo e Estudos Clim ticos (CPTEC)), China, Japan and Russia, b) Centres for conducting the global climate reanalysis: USA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), c) Lead Centre for conducting coordination of assessment of multiple climate reanalysis: ECMWF d) RCC Network for the Arctic (ArcRCC-Network) Change the names of WIPPS activities: a) Global numerical sub-seasonal forecasts global sub-seasonal prediction, b) Global numerical long-range prediction global seasonal prediction Inclusion of information regarding the linkage of the Climate Service Information System (CSIS) to the WIPPS in the Manual on the WIPPS - Annex 8
draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 Contribution from Members WiP [14 Apr 2024] China; USA; Hong Kong, China; Draft Recommendation China Noting further that China submitted the application for a Centre conducting global climate reanalysis, [China]
draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 Annex 1 USA 2.2.1.x Global Climate Reanalysis 2.2.1.x.1 Centres conducting global climate reanalysis (GCR) shall: (a) Produce global climate reanalyses at the surface, near-surface and throughout the atmosphere; (b)All reanalysis products (Appendix A) must be updated to include the previous month within 60 days for the end of current month; [U.S.A.] (b) Update all reanalysis products listed in Appendix A to include the previous month within 60 days of the end of the current month, 2.2.2.x Coordination of assessment of multiple climate reanalysis 2.2.2.x.1 Centre(s) conducting the assessment of multiple climate reanalyses (Lead Centre(s) for Global Climate Reanalysis) shall: (g) All reanalysis products (Appendix XX) must be updated to include the previous month within 90 days for the end of current month; [U.S.A.] (g) Update all reanalysis products listed in Appendix A to include the previous month within 90 days for the end of current month; (h) Ensure all products cover at least the most recent WMO climatological reference period. [U.S.A.]
draft Recommendation 8.4(1)/2 Annex 3 Hong Kong, China 2.2.2.2 Coordination of multi-model ensembles for sub-seasonal forecasts Centre(s) coordinating SSF multi-model ensembles (Lead Centre(s) for SSFMME) shall: (ec)Redistribute contributing centre digital products forecast data as describedlisted in Appendix 2.2.4443 [Hong Kong, China] for those GPCs-SSF contributing centres [Hong Kong, China] that allow it, as described in Appendix 2.2.44 [Hong Kong, China]; APPENDIX 2.2.43. MINIMUM INFORMATION TO BE AVAILABLE FROM THE LEAD CENTRE(S) FOR SUB-SEASONAL FORECAST MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES Global Producing Centre Digital products 1. Global fields of forecast and hindcast as supplied by GPCs-SSF, including (for GPCs that allow redistribution of their digital data) dDaily fields mean global field of forecast variables from contributing centres from for individual forecasts ensemble members for at least each of the four weeks following the forecast initialization date: [Hong Kong, China]
Thank you. wmo.int
