Decoding China's Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia
Delve into the impacts and implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in South Asia, analyzing the economic, geopolitical, and strategic aspects. Explore the costs, benefits, alliances, and losses experienced by Pakistan amidst its engagement with China. Uncover the potential consequences on sovereignty, market access, and regional dynamics.
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Presentation Transcript
Chinas Belt and Road Initiative and South Asia Dr Wali Aslam
What are BRI and CPEC? BRI 71 countries, 750 billion, half the world s population and a quarter of global GDP CPEC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Flagship project for BRI Investment of about $62 billion The timing is significant (The Quad = Australia, Japan, India, US)
Impact of the alliance(?) with China Democracy and dictatorship Pakistan s economic woes and the Chinese embrace Financial Action Task Force IMF bailout package
The cost of CPEC Chinese investment in the form of loans (around 7% interest rate) The danger of sovereign insolvencies A debt-for-equity swap Sri Lanka s Hambantota port Jiwani base 60 miles from Gawadar, 15 miles from the Iranian border Diamer-Bhasha Dam
Pakistans losses and gains? The importance of a lonely and isolated Pakistan for India India can present the alliance to the US in negative terms Beijing would also prefer further tensions to enhance its leverage Pakistan needs to be better supported by the international community, not less The Afghanistan factor and diminishing US interest
Pakistans losses and gains? A lonely Pakistan (vis- -vis the West and the Gulf countries) The Chinese advantages are far more Access to the Indian Ocean Encirclement of India Access to the Pakistani markets at on advantageous grounds
Pakistans losses and gains? Jiwani base Sovereignty will take a hit Limited civil and military control of Pakistanis Chahbahar and local geopolitics The Indian factor Likely target in a future clash with India
Pakistans losses and gains? The economic consequences Exclusive concessions to Chinese companies Nepal s 2.5 billion hydroelectric dam project The societal consequences
CPECs influence on Pakistans insurgencies Intra-provincial harmony Proxy wars in Pakistan (India and Afghanistan)
Pakistans losses and gains? The economic benefit of turning towards Western democracies A need to reset Pakistan s relations with the US US s role as in influencing India (e.g. Kargil war) Cannot rely on China for that purpose
Options for Pakistan Consider joining the Quad alliance The democratic dimension The economic cost of an authoritarian turn
What can Pakistan do? Create distance between itself and China Send more positive signals to the Quad Negotiate better terms for the CPEC projects Limit or end Chinese military presence Win over the Trump administration Build on the societal links
