EASA Wildlife Strike Prevention Update at WBA Conference

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The EASA Wildlife Strike Prevention Update presented at the WBA Conference in Warsaw highlighted the increasing rates of bird strikes and correlated ineffective bird control measures. The data analysis suggests a need for improved reporting and enhanced measures to mitigate bird strike risks within EASA-MS territory. Key points covered include bird strike data, organizational structures, regulations, and the correlation between bird strikes and bird control occurrences.

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EASA Wildlife Strike Prevention Update Vasileios STEFANIOROS Santiago HAYA-LEIVA Martin BERNANDERSSON TE.GEN.00409-001

Agenda 1. The Agency 2. Bird Strike data European Central Repository 3. Current Activities 4. Future Plans 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 2

EASA Organisation Structure 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 3

FS Organisation Structure 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 4

EASA Regulations 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 5

Data scope Occurrences in the European Central Repository (ECR) fulfilling the following criteria: Related to Birds (actual, near-miss or bird control) Occurred in EASA-MS territory (aerodromes) Occurred between 2011 and 2017 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 6

Bird Strikes Data from the ECR Bird Strikes Rate Continuous increase of bird strike reported occurrences since 2011 35 200% 30 Variation fromprevious year (%) Occurrences per 10.000 flights 150% 25 Yearly increase of 20%-40% since 2014 20 100% 15 Similar increase for bird control-related reported occurrences (no actual birdstrikes but typically reporting ineffective bird control) 10 50% 5 0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Birs Strikes rate per 10.000 flights Rate per 10.000 flight of the bird control related occurrence (no bird strike) 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 7

Correlation between reporting of bird strikes and bird control There is a significant positive correlation between both, the of bird control and bird strikes reported occurrences This relation may suggest an overall increase of the actual number of bird strikes and the insufficient bird control at the aerodrome However, it is suspected that the overall improvement of reporting plays a major role in this trend Correlation between Bird Strikes and Bird Control reported occurrences 6 Bird Control Occurrence Rate (per 10.000 flights) R = 0.7754 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Bird Strike Rate (per 10.000 flights) 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 8

Data scope Occurrences in the European Central Repository (ECR) fulfilling the following criteria: Occurrences not related to birds Occurred in EASA-MS territory (aerodromes) Occurred between 2011 and 2017 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 9

Occurrence Reporting in the ECR Comparison between reporting of bird strikes and other occurrences The yearly increase and the overall trend of both, reported bird related occurrences and all the other occurrences is stable and similar over the last 6-year period 350 140% 300 120% Variation fromprevious year (%) 250 Occurrences per 10.000 flights 100% 200 80% 150 60% 100 40% This suggests a strong correlation with the improvement of the reporting culture in Europe 50 20% 0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Birs Strikes rate per 10.000 flights OtherOccurrences (other than Bird Strikes) rate per 10.000 flights Variation from previous year (bird strikes) Variation from previous year (other than bird strikes) 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 10

Correlation between the overall reporting and bird related reporting There is a strong positive statistical correlation between the increase of reported occurrences (other than bird strikes) and reported bird related occurrences Expert judgement suggests strong causality behind this statistical correlation: Implementation of Regulation 376/2014 on occurrence reporting has caused an overall improvement of the reporting culture across Europe Regulation 376/2014 entered into force in November 2015 Correlation between the bird strikes and other occurrences reported Occurrence Rate (other than Bird Strike) per 350 R = 0.9773 300 250 200 10.000 150 100 50 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Bird Strike Rate per 10.000 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 11

Preliminary Conclusions The review of the ECR data related to bird strikes shows a continuous increase between 20% and 40% each year since 2014 However, this continuous increase is estimated to be due to the overall improvement of occurrence reporting across Europe during the implementation of Regulation 376/2014 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 12

ECR Birdstrike data Birdstrikes per year Number of Birdstrikes per year 2011-2017, EASA MS, ECR Data 12,000 10,406 10,000 8,627 8,000 5,543 6,000 4,240 3,777 4,000 3,422 3,303 2,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 13

ECR Birdstrike data Birdstrikes per month Number of Birdstrikes per month 2011-2017, EASA MS, ECR data 7,000 5,992 5,790 6,000 5,287 4,869 5,000 4,517 3,794 4,000 2,951 3,000 1,805 2,000 1,622 1,124 790 777 1,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 14

ECR Birdstrike data Birdstrikes per flight phase Number of Birdstrikes per Flight Phase 2011-2017, EASA MS, ECR data 14,000 13,295 12,610 12,000 10,000 8,948 8,000 6,000 4,000 1,466 2,000 990 931 777 263 28 9 1 0 Standing Taxi Take-off En route Manoeuvring Approach Landing Tow Post-impact Unknown Not Coded 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 15

ECR Birdstrike data Birdstrikes per light conditions Number of Birdstrikes per light conditions 2011-2017, EASA MS, ECR data Dawn Daylight Dusk/twilight Night/dark Night/moonlight Unknown Not Coded Dawn, 352 Daylight, 10,212 Not Coded, 17,917 Dusk/twilight, 493 Night/dark, 2,003 Night/moonlight, 86 Unknown, 8,255 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 16

ECR Birdstrike data Birdstrikes per part of aircraft struck Number of Birdstrikes per part of aircraft struck 2011-2017, EASA MS, ECR data 30,000 26,308 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 2,132 2,031 1,996 1,824 1,735 1,316 1,209 953 889 218 98 77 73 11 13 0 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 17

ECR Birdstrike data Effects on flights Birdstrikes in EASA MS 2011-2017, Effects on flights 45,000 40,000 35,000 Total number of birdstrikes: 39 318 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 1,838 385 63 25 0 Aborted takeoffs Precautionary landings Engine shutdowns Other consequences Total number of birdstrikes Number 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 18

Current activities NPA 2017-16 Engine bird ingestion Purpose To improve the ability of aeroplane turbine engines to cope with the ingestion of birds that can be reasonably expected to be experienced during the service life of the engine Why Safety Recommendation to the Agency by the NTSB following the US Airways accident What Changes to CS-E on engine bird ingestion demonstration provisions to include an additional requirement to continue operate following the ingestion of medium-sized bird into the engine core with a fan speed representative to the climb or approach condition, if no bird material is ingested into the engine during the test. 19/11/2018 WBA CONFERENCE, 19 - 21 November 2018, Warsaw, POLAND 19