The Road to Brexit: How Did We Get Here?
The road to Brexit was paved with a series of events including economic struggles in the Eurozone, talks of a Grexit, security concerns in Ukraine and Syria, the migrant crisis, terrorism threats, and a swing towards extremism in European politics. The decision ultimately culminated in the UK's 2015 General Election, where the promise of a Brexit referendum by Prime Minister David Cameron led to unexpected outcomes with far-reaching consequences.
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BREXIT Part 1 How did we get here??
THE PERFECT STORM The context
The Economy urogeddin (ongoing problems with the Euro) Now new EU oversight rules in response New EU-US Trade Agreement was nearing conclusion ish - Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP) Discussions of the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB) Data protection rules being strengthened (e.g. the Safe Harbour case)
GREXIT Bailout or melt down The talk of Greece being forced out of the Eurozone & an exit from the EU? The Greeks held a referendum The Greek Parliament holds all night talks (live tweeted) OXI (No!) to the deal Eventually a deal is reached Very very contentious Talk of the collapse of the EU..
Security Ukraine / The Crimea Sanctions on Russia Syria (2016 Aleppo) Russia Resurgent EU and Member States criticised for not taking more action ISIS / DAESH Talk of the EU collapsing .
Terrorism Terror at home Charlie Hebdo Paris The Bacalan 13/11 Brussels Lockdown Solidarity marches Home grown or imported terror? The enemy within Immigrant populations & integration France bombs DAESH (ISIS) Talk of the EU collapsing Ongoing attacks across Europe through 2016
Swing towards extremism Polish government attempts press curbs leads to protests Le Pen in France gaining support
HOW DID WE GET HERE? A quick reminder .
Brexit How did we Get here? In the UK 2015 General Election the Conservatives are doing badly Camaron announces he will hold a Brexit referendum if he is re-elected. The Conservatives gain in a landslide election He has painted himself into a corner and now has to deliver on his promises OOPS !
The campaign leaders Leave Stay
The average Brit is not impressed. The debate is getting heated. And some nasty elements are beginning to appear
The Leave campaign focuses on costs of EU membership They make claims about losses They want to prevent immigration They want greater independence Take back control is their slogan They lie
June - The campaign gets intense The divisions are becoming clearer Underlying this campaign are the strains due to austerity policies. The demographics are clear
Questions are being asked Assassination, terrorism or lone wolf attack? did the Brexit Campaign cause this? Is it another Right Wing Attack on Democratic Parliamentary process one of many so opportunistic at most? Are MPs now afraid to speak out??? 17 June MP Jo Cox is Murdered
The Remain camp are worried Campaigning stops out of respect for the weekend There is a last ditch attempt in this the final week of the campaign to push for a Remain vote Major celebrities come out in favour of a ;Remain; vote Major UK companies come out in favour of a Remain vote Have they done too little too late? The referendum is to be held on the 23rdJune
David Beckham David Beckham has urged people to vote to stay in the European Union, saying the UK should be "facing the problems of the world together and not alone". 21 June 2016
June 21 A swing to the Remain camp 53% Remain 46% Leave 1% don t know Nail-biting begins
Fingers pointed at the Tabloids for creating migrant fears over the years
Opinion Poll 22 June 2016 Neck and neck REMAIN 43% LEAVE 44% Source: FT poll of polls
A real distrust of Experts emerges. Leave voters not swayed by establishment views.
Last attempts at getting Remain win maybe too late?
Concerns grow Camaron is worried There is some sign of a Remain win but the polls are inconclusive The City arranges to stay up all night rents rooms in local hotels for their traders The first count is expected at about 4am Friday Overnight Sterling begins to climb to an 8 year high on rumours of a Remain win
Impact of social media Pencilgate rumour spreads People tweet their cast vote!
First results start to come in Gibraltar and the Scottish isles are for Remain. Gibraltar... A rock solid 84% turnout - 19,322 Remain and Leave: 823 Faisil islam
It looks like Remain won Farage the leader of the Leave campaign is interviewed in tears, he says he thinks it is all lost. The news forecasters are saying it looks like Remain have it Most people who stayed up late to see the results go to bed Most are relieved, the status quo at least hold no surprises . That was close .
However Next morning the world wakes up to the actual referendum result 51.9 % vote to leave the EU (Remain 48.1) Turnout 72%
Breakdown by Nations of the UK England 53% Leave 47 % Remain Scotland 38% Leave 62 % Remain Whales 53% Leave 47 % Remain Northern Ireland 44% Leave 56% Remain
Political fallout The Prime Minister Camaron resigns All the key players are nowhere to be found for comment Westminster goes into meltdown Eventually a new Prime minister is found Teresa May takes over
Sterling goes into freefall Governor of Bank of England makes statement Says he will take action to support the pound
Brussels responds We are ready .. (Tusk) don t want delay; out is out ; see video http://bbc.in/29fm8nK (Junker) UK can t cherry pick (Merkle) In general EU stating that the UK cannot have access to the Single Market without allowing EU Citizens migration into the UK The Four Freedoms are sacrosanct
EuroParl debate Very lively MEP Farage Speech ( see video) Causes ructions You re not laughing now The little people rejected you A prediction the UK will not be the last Most of you have never done a proper job in your life
MEPs respond Junker surprised you are here Verhofstat the lies Photo s emerge of surgeon behind Farage
Remain rallies are held outside Westminster noticeably youthful
The EU Response The EU's Trade Commissioner, Cecilia Malmstrom, says the UK cannot begin negotiating trade terms with the bloc until after it has left "First you exit then you negotiate, All over the UK are Battle of the Somme commemorations
Monday July 4th Things are moving very fast Farage resigns as leader of UKIP; Retains his MEP seat A group of lawyers mount a legal challenge to the Brexit vote AG says second referendum is legally possible Issue of Ex-Pats & EU Nationals in the UK hots up
No staff for Trade Deals Ads in the papers looking for negotiators Not enough staff in the UK civil service who have the key skills required The UK say they want to negotiate a series of new bi-lateral trade deals with countries around the world instead of being part of the EU The UK would also need people with specialised skills for the separation from the EU as well
The public turn to Larry the Cat for enlightenment - (Larry is the No 10 Cat)
The Teresa May Government Brexiteers get key posts focused on negotiating the UK exit form the EU (they take the lead, but also the risk!) Boris Johnson New Foreign Secretary David Davis Brexit Secretary heads Brexit negotiations Liam Fox trade - (Eurosceptic) These were all for leave (Michael Gove & Osborn gone) Generally this is regarded as a poisoned chalice
Events Negative reports on the Italian Banking Sector France Nice-promenade attack Thursday July 14th Attempted coup in Turkey July Fri 15th Too much news , too fast . Social media is in overdrive
