EUREC4A UK CMO Forecasting Initiative: Weather Forecast Details

Detailed weather forecast information for the Caribbean region provided by the EUREC4A UK CMO Forecasting Initiative. The forecast covers various parameters including surface analysis, synoptic charts, moisture content, wind speeds at different levels, sea conditions, and more. Updates on winds, humidity, dust haze concentrations, and atmospheric conditions are included, along with advisories for small craft operators and sea bathers regarding sea swells and wind speeds.

• Weather forecast
• EUREC4A
• UK CMO
• Caribbean
• Meteorological Organization

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1. EUREC4A UK CMO Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed EUREC4A Forecast EUREC4A Forecast Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO) Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO) and Partners and Partners Date: D Date: D = 12/02/2020 = 12/02/2020 Wed 12 February 2020 Gregory Cato. Cecile, Oscar, Sheryl

2. EUREC4A UK CMO Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed 06 Z Surface Analysis 06 Z Surface Analysis

3. EUREC4A UK CMO Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Synoptic analysis chart, 00Z 13 Synoptic analysis chart, 00Z 13TH THFebruary February

4. EUREC4A UK CMO Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Sounding and Sounding and Metars Metars MET 8 MET 8 Relatively Moist lower levels. Dry Mid. Expect Occasional Turb. SITE LLEWM present: winds 20 knots or more below and above 5000ft

5. EUREC4A UK CMO Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed TPW & DUST HAZE CONCENTRATION TPW & DUST HAZE CONCENTRATION Moisture in patches over Eastern Caribbean(Central Windwards/South). Varying intensities of Dust haze. Improvement likely soon.

6. EUREC4A UK CMO Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed 850 mb winds and RH 850 mb winds and RH 12z 12th 12z 13th 12Z 12th 12z 13th

7. EUREC4A UK CMO Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed 500 & 250 mb winds 500 & 250 mb winds 12Z 12th 12z 12th 12z 13th 12z 13th Troughs become more organised over the next24 hours 500mb low over Northern Windwards Upper level trough amplifies

8. EUREC4A UK CMO Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Seas Conditions Seas Conditions MeteoFrance Wednesday 2pm or Wed 18utc A small craft advisory is in effect for above normal sea swells. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution Moderate to rough. Swell: 2.0m to 3.0m (7ft to 9 ft) D Winds: ENE at 30-40kph or (15-25mph) D+1 Winds: ENE E 30-45kph or (19-28mph) D Hightides: 6:17 am & 6:26pm LST D+1 Hightides: 6:59 am & 7:19pm LST

9. EUREC4A UK CMO Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed OUTLOOK D+2: MID/UPPER LEVEL CHANGES OUTLOOK D+2: MID/UPPER LEVEL CHANGES SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTED FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PROVIDE SOME DIFFLUENCE FRIDAY/SATURDAYFORECAST: WE MAY SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH RESULTANT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EUREC4A Forecast Testbed Dry Run

10. EUREC4A UK CMO Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Summary Summary Ridging at surface for D and D+1 Breezy conditions to persist as tight pressure gradient remains Dust haze with gradual improvement likely over the next 24 hrs Moist Lower atmosphere, although likely to increase in 24 hrs. Mid-UL Trough axis oriented NE/SW through eastern Caribbean providing marginal favourable conditions aloft for convective development. Today s forecast: Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy at times, slightly hazy and breezy with some scattered showers. Mixture of Sugar, gravel and flower type patterns are likely to be present. Tomorrow s forecast: Possible haze reduction. Although dry in mid levels, possible increase in cloudiness and or shower activity due to U/L dynamics. OUTLOOK D+2: Possible heavier showers as mid and upper levels become more favourable