EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Overview
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Thursday 06
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February 2020
Lawrence Pologne
And Carolyn Peck
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Ridge pattern across E. Caribbean
with a tight pressure gradient
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Brisk winds (15 to 20 kts) from
the ENE pushing shallow clouds
02/04/2020
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BDS 060000 Z Sounding
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Mid level dry air and subsident
inversion base near 820 mb
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Minimal CAPE
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Wind 10 to 15 knots in the low
levels from ENE to ESE
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Sub Tropical Jet near 200 mb (75 kt)
9/17/2024
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Dry air in vicinity
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SAL intrusion
9/17/2024
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9/17/2024
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Shallow cumulus cloud lines
pushing across island chain, but
with occasional build-ups.
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Ridge dominates across E.
Caribbean maintaining a
tight pressure gradient
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Winds are expected to
remain brisk
9/17/2024
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Upper level trough just
east of island chain could
induce taller clouds
9/17/2024
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Wave hgt – 7 to 10 ft
from the ENE
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Dominant waves
from the ENE every
9 to 10 seconds
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Strong ridge pattern over E. Caribbean generating tight pressure
gradient.
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Large scale subsidence over area.
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Upper level trough in the vicinity can induce some instability.
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Slight haze continues.
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Winds remain brisk blowing from the ENE at 15 to 20 kts
9/17/2024
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Satellite images or Meteogram
or Synoptic analysis, etc.. .
9/17/2024
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Summar
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1.
Make sure that key points are written as annotation in the
document.
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So that it can be understood even if telecon quality is poor;
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So that it can be understood as part of an archive in future years.
2.
Try to be as precise as possible in predictions (for instance, locations
and timings).
9/17/2024
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<Figure here>
Summarise:
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Radar show light
precipitation west and
south of the area.
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Precipitation – none in 12
hr- 1 to 2 mm 24 hr.
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Shower to the east
expected to move this
afternoon into evening.
9/17/2024
The EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative's Forecast Testbed provides detailed insights into surface analyses, soundings, airmass observations, visible imagery, and outlooks for the Caribbean region. The forecast includes information on pressure gradients, wind patterns, cloud formations, and upper-level dynamics, aiming to enhance the understanding of weather conditions in the area.
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Presentation Transcript
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed EUREC4A Forecast EUREC4A Forecast Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO) Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO) and Partners and Partners Thursday 06thFebruary 2020 Lawrence Pologne And Carolyn Peck
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed 0600 z Surface 0600 z Surface analysis analysis chart chart Ridge pattern across E. Caribbean with a tight pressure gradient Brisk winds (15 to 20 kts) from the ENE pushing shallow clouds 02/04/2020
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Slide 1c: Soundings Slide 1c: Soundings BDS 060000 Z Sounding Mid level dry air and subsident inversion base near 820 mb Minimal CAPE Wind 10 to 15 knots in the low levels from ENE to ESE Sub Tropical Jet near 200 mb (75 kt) 9/17/2024
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Airmass Airmass RGB RGB Dry air in vicinity SAL intrusion 9/17/2024
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Visible Imagery 10:50Z Visible Imagery 10:50Z Shallow cumulus cloud lines pushing across island chain, but with occasional build-ups. 9/17/2024
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed 48 48 Hr Hr Outlook Outlook Ridge dominates across E. Caribbean maintaining a tight pressure gradient Winds are expected to remain brisk 9/17/2024
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Upper Levels: 24 Upper Levels: 24 Hr Hr Forecast 250 Forecast 250 mb mb Upper level trough just east of island chain could induce taller clouds 9/17/2024
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed 36 36 Hr Hr Significant Wave Height Forecast Significant Wave Height Forecast Wave hgt 7 to 10 ft from the ENE
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Wave Period Forecast (48 Wave Period Forecast (48 Hr Hr) ) Dominant waves from the ENE every 9 to 10 seconds
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Summary Summary Strong ridge pattern over E. Caribbean generating tight pressure gradient. Large scale subsidence over area. Upper level trough in the vicinity can induce some instability. Slight haze continues. Winds remain brisk blowing from the ENE at 15 to 20 kts 9/17/2024
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Verification of previous forecast Verification of previous forecast Summary of previous forecast Satellite images or Meteogram or Synoptic analysis, etc.. . 9/17/2024
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed General guidance on preparing Briefing PowerPoint General guidance on preparing Briefing PowerPoint 1. Make sure that key points are written as annotation in the document. So that it can be understood even if telecon quality is poor; So that it can be understood as part of an archive in future years. 2. Try to be as precise as possible in predictions (for instance, locations and timings). 9/17/2024
EUREC4A UK CMO Caribbean Weather Forecasting Initiative: Forecast Testbed Slide 2: Convective fields Slide 2: Convective fields Summarise: Radar show light precipitation west and south of the area. Precipitation none in 12 hr- 1 to 2 mm 24 hr. Shower to the east expected to move this afternoon into evening. <Figure here> 9/17/2024
