Weather Alert: Tropical Low Pressure Forecast
Forecast issued:
Monday 20 February
Forecast valid:
Wednesday 23 February
24 hour
rainfall
(mm)
Scenario 1: Forecast for Day 3
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There is a weak tropical low pressure that is expected to be situated in
the southern parts of the Mozambique channel
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The exact position and intensity is not very certain at all at the moment
as most models are not in agreement.
•
RSMC La Reunion has sent a bulletin out for the low pressure, but the
uncertainty has also been expressed in their discussion and therefore
the system has not been named as yet
•
Models do however show some agreement with regards to large
amount of rainfall being expected over the southern parts of
Mozambique and possibly 20-40mm over Swaziland. The uncertainty of
this rainfall is how far inland it extends. It needs to be kept in mind that
if the low intensifies more than expected or if the placement is different,
this rainfall area will change significantly
24 hour
rainfall
(mm)
Forecast issued:
Wednesday 23 February
Forecast valid:
Wednesday 23 February
Scenario 2: Forecast for Day 1 (Today)
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Tropical low pressure has not intensified much
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RSMC La Reunion has sent a bulletin out for the low pressure, classifying
it as a tropical depression and giving it the name of ‘Bruno’
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Models are in agreement with rainfall amounts of >100mm in 24 hours
over the southern parts of Mozambique and Swaziland
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The Unified Model (12km) shows 6 hourly rainfall amounts of >150mm
between 00-06Z over Mozambique while Aladin shows the same
amount of rainfall over that area, but rather for this afternoon (12-18Z)
•
An MCC moved over Swaziland last night and resulted in high rainfall
amounts. Stations over the eastern parts reported rainfall amounts of
between 60-80mm in 3 hours.
Weak tropical low pressure may bring heavy rainfall to southern Mozambique and Swaziland. Uncertainty in intensity and position poses a potential risk. Stay updated on the evolving weather conditions.
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Presentation Transcript
Scenario 1: Forecast for Day 3 24 hour rainfall (mm) >100 80-100 60-80 40-60 20-40 Forecast issued: Monday 20 February Forecast valid: Wednesday 23 February
Scenario 1 Scenario 1 - - Additional information: Additional information: There is a weak tropical low pressure that is expected to be situated in the southern parts of the Mozambique channel The exact position and intensity is not very certain at all at the moment as most models are not in agreement. RSMC La Reunion has sent a bulletin out for the low pressure, but the uncertainty has also been expressed in their discussion and therefore the system has not been named as yet Models do however show some agreement with regards to large amount of rainfall being expected over the southern parts of Mozambique and possibly 20-40mm over Swaziland. The uncertainty of this rainfall is how far inland it extends. It needs to be kept in mind that if the low intensifies more than expected or if the placement is different, this rainfall area will change significantly
Scenario 2: Forecast for Day 1 (Today) 24 hour rainfall (mm) >100 80-100 60-80 40-60 20-40 Forecast issued: Wednesday 23 February Forecast valid: Wednesday 23 February
Scenario 2 Scenario 2 - - Additional information: Additional information: Tropical low pressure has not intensified much RSMC La Reunion has sent a bulletin out for the low pressure, classifying it as a tropical depression and giving it the name of Bruno Models are in agreement with rainfall amounts of >100mm in 24 hours over the southern parts of Mozambique and Swaziland The Unified Model (12km) shows 6 hourly rainfall amounts of >150mm between 00-06Z over Mozambique while Aladin shows the same amount of rainfall over that area, but rather for this afternoon (12-18Z) An MCC moved over Swaziland last night and resulted in high rainfall amounts. Stations over the eastern parts reported rainfall amounts of between 60-80mm in 3 hours.
