Labour Force Survey Q3 2021 Results: Key Highlights & Statistics

Labour Force Survey Quarter 3 2021 Results 25 November 2021

Section 1: Introduction

Labour Market classification in the Labour Force Survey The official labour market classification of respondents to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) is based on the International Labour Organisation (ILO) criteria For your information, key LFS concepts and definitions along with information on the new IESS Regulation are included in the Annex at the end of this presentation LFS results for Q3 2021 like previous quarters are published according to this criteria 3

COVID-19 Adjusted Unemployment Estimates COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates of Employment volumes for persons 15-89 years and corresponding Employment Rates for persons aged 15-64 are also included in the LFS today for the end of September 2021 and October 2021 The latest COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates of Unemployment for March 2020 to October 2021 were published as part of the Monthly Unemployment Estimates release on 03 November 2021 See Annex at the end of presentation for further information on the impact of COVID-19 on the LFS 4

Section 2: Headline Statistics

LFS Q3 2021 headline estimates COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates (lower bound) September 2021 (end of Q3 2021) Standard LFS Methodology (ILO) Q3 2021 Indicator Employed persons aged 15-89 years Employment rate for those aged 15-64 years 2,471,200 2,369,731 72.2% 69.1% 6

LFS Q3 2021 headline estimates COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates (upper bound) September 2021 (end of Q3 2021) Standard LFS Methodology (ILO) Q3 2021 Indicator Unemployed persons aged 15- 74 years 149,100 232,866 Unemployment rate for those aged 15-74 years 5.7% 8.9% 7

LFS Q3 2021 headline estimates COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates September 2021 (end of Q3 2021) Standard LFS Methodology (ILO) Q3 2021 Indicator In labour force (15-89 years) Participation rate 2,620,300 65.1% - - Not in labour force (15+ years) 1,407,700 - 8

Comparison of key labour market indicators Q3 of 2019-2021 Comparison of key labour market indicators - Q3 of 2019-2021 2021Change 2019- Indicator 2019 2020 2021 Labour Force (thousands) Employment (thousands) Unemployment (thousands) 2,451.6 2,323.4 128.1 2,429.2 2,250.0 179.2 2,620.3 2,471.2 149.1 168.7 147.8 21.0 Not in labour force (thousands) 1,474.0 1,554.9 1,407.7 -66.3 Participation rate Employment rate (15-64 years) Unemployment rate Population (15+) (thousands) 62.5% 69.5% 5.2% 3,925.6 61.0% 66.4% 7.4% 3,984.1 65.1% 72.2% 5.7% 4,028.1 +2.6pp +2.7pp +0.5pp +102.5 9

ILO Status of persons away from work for any reason, Q3 2019 - Q3 2021 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2019 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Inactive Unemployed Employed 10

ILO Status of PUP/EWSS Recipients Q3 2021 Percentage of persons aged 15-89 years and in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) or the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS) in reference week and all persons in Q3 2021 classified by ILO status, LFS Q3 2021 PUP recipients in Q3 2021 EWSS recipients in Q3 2021 All persons aged 15 years and over % % % Employed Unemployed Inactive 43.2 94.6 61.4 28.4 0.6 3.7 28.4 4.8 35.0 11

Section 3: Employment

Employment and hours worked Number of persons 15-89 years in employment (ILO), number of persons absent from work and Actual Hours worked per week (in millions), Quarters 3 of 2019, 2020 and 2021 Annual Change Q3 2019 to Q3 2020 Annual Change Q3 2020 to Q3 2021 Biennial change Q3 2019 to Q3 2021 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Employment 'Away from work' (not at work) Actual Hours worked per week (millions) 2,323,400 2,250,000 2,471,200 -73,400 (-3.2%) +221,200 (+9.8%) +147,800 (+6.4%) 217,300 253,800 303,200 +36,500 (+16.8%) +49,400(+19.5%) +85,900 (+39.5%) 77.0 72.7 77.1 -4.2 (-5.5%) +4.3 (+6.0%) +0.1 (0.1%) 13

Absences from work in the reference week as a percentage of the numbers employed by Economic Sector, Quarter 3 2019 to Quarter 3 2021 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Industry Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motorvehicles and motorcycles Transportation & Storage Accommodation & Food Service Activities Information & Communication Financial, Insurance & Real Estate Activities Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities Administrative & Support Service Activities Public Administration & Defence: compulsory social security Education Human Health & Social Work Activities Other Activities (Cultural & Recreation) All Economic Sectors 2.7 6.6 5.9 6.4 9.1 5.6 5.8 8.2 8.1 6.1 9.8 34.3 10.2 7.7 9.4 2.2 7.3 6.4 6.5 18.3 16.0 5.9 7.2 10.6 9.6 7.2 35.9 12.6 10.6 11.3 3.1 10.5 8.3 8.8 12.7 9.8 9.0 13.6 11.2 8.9 8.6 33.7 14.3 10.2 12.3 14

Absences from work in the reference week as a percentage of the numbers employed by Economic Sector, LFS Q3 2019 to Q3 2021 All Economic Sectors Other Activities (Cultural & Recreation) Human Health & Social Work Activities Education Public Administration & Defence: compulsory social security Administrative & Support Service Activities Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities Financial, Insurance & Real Estate Activities Information & Communication Accommodation & Food Service Activities Transportation & Storage Wholesale & Retail Trade; repair of motorvehicles and motorcycles Construction Industry Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2019 15

Total actual hours worked (millions) per week by Economic Sector, LFS Q3 2019 to Q3 2021 Other Activities (Cultural & Recreation) Human Health & Social Work Activities Education Public Administration & Defence: compulsory social Administrative & Support Service Activities Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities Financial, Insurance & Real Estate Activities Information & Communication Accommodation & Food Service Activities Transportation & Storage Wholesale & Retail Trade; repair of motorvehicles Construction Industry Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Millions of hours worked per week Q3 2019 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 16

Number of persons aged 15-89 years in employment by Economic Sector, Q3 2019-Q3 2021 (000s) Other Activities (Cultural & Recreation) Human Health & Social Work Activities Education Public Administration & Defence: compulsory social security Administrative & Support Service Activities Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities Financial, Insurance & Real Estate Activities Information & Communication Accommodation & Food Service Activities Transportation & Storage Wholesale & Retail Trade; repair of motorvehicles and motorcycles Construction Industry Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Q3 2021 Q3 2020 Q3 2019 17

Unadjusted Employment by gender Q3 2021 Annual change Males 1,316,700 +90,000 (+7.3%) Females 1,154,500 +131,000 (+12.8%) 18

Annual change in full-time/part-time employment In the year to Q3 2021: Full-time : +108,900 (+6.0%) to 1,937,000 Part-time: +112,300 (+26.7%) to 533,300 Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) employment in main job up 209,900 (+10.3%) between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 Annual change in Full-Time and Part-Time Employment, Q3 2016 to Q3 2021 '000 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 Change in FT employment Change in PT employment -150 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q121 Q221 Q321 19 19

Part-time underemployment Indicator Q3 2021 Annual change Part-time underemployment 110,100 +1,000 (+0.9%) Part-time underemployment accounted for 20.6% of part-time employment in Q3 2021 20

Employment status Indicator Q2 2021 Annual change Self employed 337,000 +24,700 (+7.9%) Employees 2,115,600 +191,600 (+10.0%) 21

Employment Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted employment was 2,465,700 in Q3 2021, up 4.8% from 2,352,300 in previous quarter Quarterly change in Seasonally Adjusted employment, Q3 2016 to Q3 2021 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 -50.0 -100.0 -150.0 -200.0 -250.0 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 22 22

Section 4: Unemployment

Unemployment - unadjusted 149,100 persons unemployed in Q3 2021 Unemployment down -16.8% or -30,100 over the year Unemployment rate down from 7.4% to 5.7% over the year Total number of persons unemployed, Q3 2016 to Q3 2021 '000 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q121 Q221 Q321 24 24

Unemployment by gender Gender Indicator Q3 2021 Annual change Males Unemployed 78,600 -13,000 (-14.3%) Rate 5.7% -1.3 percentage points Females Unemployed 70,500 -17,000 (-19.4%) Rate 5.8% -2.1 percentage points 25

Unemployment - duration Long-term unemployment rate up from 1.4% to 1.7% over the year Total number of persons classified as long-term unemployed is now 45,100 up 10,600 (+30.5%) from Q3 2020 Long-term unemployment as proportion of all unemployed now 30.3% 26

Unemployment - seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate down from 7.0% to 5.5% over the quarter The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed is down from 174,700 to 139,500 Seasonally Adjusted unemployment rate, Q3 2016 to Q3 2021 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 27 27

Section 5: Labour Force

Labour Force Unadjusted Increased by 191,100 (+7.9%) over the year to 2,620,300 in Q3 2021 Participation increased over the year from 61.0% to 65.1% Demographic effect +15,900 Participation effect +175,300 Seasonally Adjusted Increase of 72,700 or 2.9% over the quarter to 2,603,800 in Q3 2021 29

Section 6: Comparing key indicators (seasonally adjusted): 2005-2008, Q4 2019, Q3 2021

Comparison of some key indicators for males 2005-2008 (pre-crash), Q4 2019 (pre-pandemic) and Q3 2021 (Seasonally adjusted) Employment (highest) Unemployment (lowest) Unemploymen t Rate (lowest) Labour Force (highest) Participation Rate (highest) 2005-2008 1,269,100 (Q3 2007) 52,900 (Q1 2005) 4.4% (Q1 2005) 1,341,800 (Q1 2008) 76.8% (Q1 2007) Q4 2019 1,268,400 65,500 4.9% 1,332,000 68.8% Q3 2021 1,310,300 74,000 5.5% 1,380,200 69.8% 31

Comparison of some key indicators for females 2005-2008 (pre-crash), Q4 2019 (pre-pandemic) and Q3 2021 (Seasonally adjusted) Employment (highest) Unemployment (lowest) Unemployment Rate (lowest) Labour Force (highest) Participation Rate (highest) 2005- 2008 972,300 (Q1 2008) 39,800 (Q1 2005) 4.5% (Q1 2005) 1,029,400 (Q1 2008) 57.4% (Q4 2007) Q4 2019 1,076,400 51,800 4.6% 1,131,700 56.9% Q3 2021 1,155,200 65,400 5.4% 1,220,800 60.1% 32

Comparison of some key indicators for all persons 2005-2008 (pre-crash), Q4 2019 (pre-pandemic) and Q3 2021 (Seasonally adjusted) Employment (highest) Unemployment (lowest) Unemployment Rate (lowest) Labour Force (highest) Participation Rate (highest) 2006- 2007 2,235,200 (Q4 2007) 92,700 (Q1 2005) 4.5% (Q1 2005) 2,389,100 (Q1 2008) 66.9% (Q1 2007) Q4 2019 2,342,500 117,300 4.7% 2,464,700 62.9% Q3 2021 2,465,700 139,500 5.5% 2,603,800 65.2% 33

Well-being Information Hub The CSO recently published a Well The CSO recently published a Well- -being Information Hub Collaboration with the Department of the Taoiseach, Departments of Collaboration with the Department of the Taoiseach, Departments of Finance and Public Expenditure and Reform, a wider inter Finance and Public Expenditure and Reform, a wider inter- -departmental Working Group and the National Economic and Social Council. Working Group and the National Economic and Social Council. Well Well- -being indicators across eleven broad themes covering a broad range of being indicators across eleven broad themes covering a broad range of life in Ireland life in Ireland from education, to health, to work and so many more facets from education, to health, to work and so many more facets of Irish life. of Irish life. These will be updated when more data on any theme becomes available. These will be updated when more data on any theme becomes available. The link to the hub on the CSO website is as follows The link to the hub on the CSO website is as follows https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-wbhub/well- beinginformationhub/workandjobquality/ being Information Hub departmental 34

Work and Job Quality Indicators from the LFS The share of employed persons working long hours which is The share of employed persons working long hours which is defined as those who usually work 49 hours or more per week. The defined as those who usually work 49 hours or more per week. The data is broken down by age group, sex and Economic sector data is broken down by age group, sex and Economic sector The lifelong learning rate in formal education for those 18+ years The lifelong learning rate in formal education for those 18+ years broken down by Principle Economic Status and age group broken down by Principle Economic Status and age group And finally, labour underutilisation as a share of the total labour And finally, labour underutilisation as a share of the total labour force broken down by age group and sex. force broken down by age group and sex. 35

Well-being indicator themes 36

Section 7: Forthcoming releases and Summary of Q3 2021 LFS results 37

Forthcoming releases Industrial Disputes (Q3 2021) 30 November 2021 Monthly Unemployment Estimates (November 2021) 1 December 2021 Earnings and Labour Costs (Q3 2021) 01 December 2021 Labour Market Insights Bulletin (Q3 2021) 01 December 2021 Live Register (November 2021) 03 December 2021 LFS (Q4 2021) To be confirmed Earnings Analysis Using Administrative Data Sources or EAADS for 2019 and 2020 To be confirmed 38

In summary. Results for Q3 2021, like previous quarters, have been compiled according to ILO definitions and concepts The effect of the further easing of Public Health restrictions in Q3 2021 is apparent from the results. Over the year, employment increased by 221,200 while unemployment decreased by 30,100 resulting in an increase of 191,100 in the overall labour force In Q3 2021, seasonally adjusted employment was up 113,400 from Q2 2021 while unemployment was down 35,200 39

In summary. The average number of hours actually worked each week in Q3 2021 was 77.1 million, up 6.0% or 4.3 million hours from a year earlier The results also show that for some sectors the hours worked were near or above Q3 2019 levels but for others differences still remain Absences from work during the reference week were just over 303,000 in Q3 2021 compared to almost 254,000 in Q3 2020 40

Any questions? Any questions? 41

Thank You. Thank You.

Annex: Impact of COVID-19 on LFS ILO Definitions and concepts IESS Regulation 43

COVID-19 and the Labour Force Survey (LFS) The methodology in the Information Note published with the Q2 2020 LFS results in August 2020 still applies, please see link https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/lfs/infor mationnote-implicationsofcovid-19onthelabourforcesurvey- quarter22020update/ COVID-19 continues to have a very significant impact on the data collection for the LFS The Q3 2021 LFS results today adhere to the standard International Labour Organisation (ILO) criteria for calculating labour market estimates 44

ILO classification in the LFS Employment (15 Employment (15- -89 years) Persons who worked in the week before the survey for one hour or more for payment or profit, including work on the family farm or business and all persons who were away from work during the reference week but had a job to which they could return to 89 years) 45

Attachment to job Testing for Job attachment pre and post IESS Rules for attachment to job for absences from work Pre-IESS Post-IESS Pre-IESS Post-IESS Holidays Working time arrrangements Illness/disability Maternity/Paternity Job related training Parental Off season No No No No No No No No No No No No Yes Yes Length of absence and share of salary paid applied to temporary layoffs only Length of absence and salary payment for parental leave Off-season - whether do any occasional work for employer or not Yes1 Yes No Temporary layoff Other reason Waiting to start a new job Yes No n/a Layoffs/Other reason - length of absence only 1 Post-IESS include all layoffs 46

ILO classification in the LFS Unemployment (15 Unemployment (15- -74 years) Persons who in the week before the survey, were without work i.e. did not meet criteria to be classified as employed under ILO available to start work within the next two weeks had taken specific steps, in the previous four weeks to find work 74 years) 47

ILO classification and LFS Inactive (15+ years) Inactive (15+ years) All other persons 48

Integration of European Social Statistics (IESS) Regulation New European regulation came into force on 01 January 2021 Implications for Irish Labour Market Statistics : https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/lfs/implicationsoftheimplementati onoftheintegrationofeuropeansocialstatisticsiessframeworkregulationonlabourmarke tstatisticsinirelandin2021/ Impact of the regulation on the LFS series: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p- lfs/labourforcesurveyquarter12021/technicalnote/ The LFS questionnaires for Ireland up to Q4 2021 are available here: https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/surveyforms/labourforcesurvey/ 49