Household Travel Survey 2018 Analysis

This analysis delves into the issues, falling response rates, non-response bias, methodological adjustments, and other data sources of the Household Travel Survey 2018. It covers the review and adjustment processes undertaken to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the survey data, including the incorporation of same-day visit questions and the removal of questionnaire instructions. Additionally, it explores the varying levels of growth indicated by other data sources such as the Labour Force Survey and the Accommodation Survey.

• Survey Analysis
• Response Rates
• Non-response Bias
• Methodological Adjustment
• Data Sources

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Presentation Transcript

1. Household Travel Survey 2018 All-Island Tourism Statistics Liaison Group Donal Kelly

2. Household Travel Survey 2018 Q2 2018 publication cancelled 1. Implausible estimates 2. Bias observed in the data 3. Falling response rate 4. Changes to survey form 2

3. Review and analysis Comprehensive review of survey processes sampling estimation methodology 3

4. Issues observed Changes to survey form Inclusion of same-day visit questions Removal of questionnaire instruction Inclusion of GDPR insert Change in sampling frame 4

5. Falling Response Rate postal survey Quarter 2017 2018 2019 Q1 45% 38% 40% Q2 43% 35% Q3 42% 36% Q4 39% 33% Year 42% 35% 5

6. Non response bias - % of persons with trips Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 18% 16% 16% 17% 19% 20% 21% 23% 22% 23% 23% 23% 25% 31% 30% 29% 29% 31% 31% 32% 39% 20% 19% 20% 20% 21% 23% 28% 6

7. Other data sources Review of data from other sources Labour Force Survey Monthly Services Inquiry FI Accommodation Survey All indicated varying levels of growth in 2019 7

8. Methodological adjustment Classic non-response bias adjustment not possible No auxiliary data available Adjusted weights using a statistical technique Based on previous six years worth of HTS data New data mirrors response pattern of previous years 8

9. Response Bias 9

10. HTS release 2018 data published on 19th June All 4 quarters published including revised Q1 2018 Adjustment made to 2018 data

11. HTS Same-day visits Started collecting data in January 2018 Extra questions on HTS form Collecting and processing of data going well Some missing data for all SDV questions we estimate/impute missing data Results no resources to work on this since last All Island meeting ; Results hope to have some results by end of 2019

12. HTS- detailed review Detailed internal review of HTS to be completed in 2019 Recommendations will be made for sampling frame design of sample non-response calibration methodology calculation of standard errors for the estimates

13. HTS- sample HTS sample came from electoral register ER no longer available have sample for all quarters in 2019 Need new sample for 2020 onwards Looking at options

14. Update on Releases Overseas Travel May 2019- published 26th June Publishing monthly data from January 2018 onwards Seasonally adjusted monthly data also published as well as unadjusted data

15. Any Questions?