EU Recovery Fund and 7-Year Budget: Geopolitical Implications in Southeast Europe

The EU Recovery Fund and 7-year budget for 2021-2027 are shaping the geopolitical landscape, with reactions from Southeast Europe influencing future policies. Key aspects include budget breakdown, impact on countries like Poland, and the positioning of member states on issues like the rule of law and green transition funds.

• EU Recovery Fund
• Southeast Europe
• Geopolitics
• Budget
• Poland

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1. The EU Recovery Fund and 7-year budget (2021-27): empowering the geopolitical vision? Focus on the South-East reactions and future policies Dr Nina Markovic Khaze Dep. of Security Studies and Criminology Macquarie University

2. ITS A NUMBERS GAME: 1,824.36bn MFF ( 1,074b) and EU RF ( 750bn, of which 390bn grants, 360bn loans)

3. The FUN parts of the Next Generation EU

4. Making sense of EU legal documents, EP resolutions and budget proposals On 15 May 2020, MEPs called for a 2 trillion budget and an additional Recovery package as part of the EU s post-COVID-19 response On 27 May 2020, UVDL unveiled a Budget Proposal, Repair and Prepare for the next generation On 17-21 July 2020, Council members deliberated for ~5 long days over the details in a Special meeting of the European Council ; 2 very busy months for the European Commission to act; October Council meeting will be a very important one! Although it is regarded as a watered-down deal, it has met many expectations and made significant concessions to individual member states Other documents that need consideration with NGEU and MFF: Updated European Commission s work program, Green and Digital Europe, updated Security Strategy

6. In 2017, Morawiecki promised a Polish Dream model of a welfare state to the Poles In July 2020, Poland was to be awarded 160 billion from the Recovery deal, of which 124b in non- repayable grants, ~ 34b in low-interest loans, and 600m for regional development. Poland as the Largest Benefactor from the deal; it is the largest CEE state since the Big Bang enlargement - but this benefit overweighs its size PM Morawiecki at a joint press conference with Hungarian PM Orban boasted about there being no direct link between the rule of law and the distribution of EU funds. This is seen as a victory of the Visegrad Group (4). Apart from the Frugal Four (SAND) VS. Germany and France, why is Polish position important? Poland is expected to become a net contributor to the EU budget. Poland is the only EU member which has not signed up to 2050 zero-carbon pledge. It has watered down proposal to link green transition funds to the 2050 zero-carbon agenda. In comparison, Romania obtained 80b, Bulgaria 29b, Croatia 22b. Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki (2017-still there)

7. Defining an EU crisis: processes, dynamics and responses

8. Reactions in the South-East and views from Australia The EU recovery fund's feast for the East EU unveils green Covid recovery plan, leaves Australia wallowing in coal dust How Australia found clout and cover in the EU s shadow Zora Sheftalovich, 15 July 2020 The EU coronavirus fund will take Europe another step towards disintegration Yanis Varoufakis

9. EUs role in the Western Balkans: another litmus test of credibility?