Moldova: Small Country with Major Geopolitical Significance

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Moldova, a small but strategically positioned country in Europe, plays a crucial role in the geopolitical landscape, caught between the influences of Russia and the West. Its significance lies in being a buffer zone between East and West, making it a focal point for the competition between major powers. With ongoing challenges and competitions over its territory, Moldova's geopolitical role is critical due to its strategic location for transportation routes and energy resources, impacting relations with Russia, the EU, and the USA.

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Moldova: Small country with big geopolitical role Monika Begovic PhD International Conference, Chisinau, Moldova 28 November 2016

New geopolitical challenges Interests of great powers in today s world create a more challenging environment for small countries (small powers?) Consequence: Small countries need to keep options open and to balance multiple relationships; Their attractiveness depends on strategic considerations of great powers

New geopolitical challenges Moldova is a small state Why is it so important for Russia, EU, but also USA? Moldova is a small but strategic country located in the European borderlands - strategically important buffer zone between East and West; It is an important component of the relations between Moscow and the West; Moldova today is in the grey zone between Western (EU and NATO) and Russian influence Both Russia (East) and the European Union (West) have long competed for influence in Moldova

New geopolitical challenges Moldova and its geopolitical role: there s still an ongoing competition between Russia and the West over the part of the territory of the former Soviet Union the whole geopolitical space of the former Soviet Union was considered significant due to the transportation of oil and gas Moldova matters as a transit point for the movement of oil and natural gas from Russia into Europe and Turkey Moldova: proximity to the strategic Ukrainian port of Odessa and to the Russia-controlled Crimean Peninsula, where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is stationed

Geopolitical challenges - Russia Role of Russia: Russia's strong military presence in the breakaway territory of Transdniestria and in pro-Russia pockets of Moldovan territory (Gaguzia) give Moscow significant leverage

Geopolitical implications Russia doesn t want Moldova to orientate towards the West - Russia needs to preserve a buffer zone between itself and NATO Moscow retains a strong presence in Moldova's financial sector media report that roughly 70% of Moldova's banking sector is controlled by Russian capital

Geopolitical implications Transnistria After the annexation of the Crimea by Russia in March 2014 the head of the Transnistrian parliament asked to join the Russian Federation

Geopolitical challenges - West Role of the West: the country has(d) pro-Western orientation: relations with NATO through PfP no plans to join due to Moldova s neutrality striving for EU membership relations between Moldova and the EU are currently shaped via the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), an EU foreign policy instrument dealing with countries bordering its member states

Moldova & EU Eastern Partnership (EaP) specific Eastern dimension to the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP), designed to reinforce the political association and economic integration of countries. governs its relationship states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine provides an avenue for discussions of trade, economic strategy, travel agreements, and other issues between the EU and its eastern neighbors eastern European partner with Belarus, the Georgia, post-Soviet Moldova,

Geopolitical implications Role of Romania: Could moving towards West (EU) lead towards unification with Romania? On 27 November 2013, a day before participation in the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, Romanian President Basescu was interviewed and said that the third priority for Romania, after joining NATO and the EU, must be the union with Moldova

Demographic structure Moldovan demography: Moldovans (and Romanians) ~ 80%; Ukrainan ~ 8%; Russian ~ 6%; Gagauz ~ 4.5%; Bulgarian ~ 2% Languages: Moldovan ~ 60%; Romanian ~ 17% (?); Russian ~ 16%; Ukrainian ~ 4%; Gaguaz ~ 3%; Bulgarian 1%

Internal political development Presidential elections: Is the election of Igor Dodon a sign that Moldova may diverge from Europe? Is Moldova, in that case, going to follow the footsteps of Hungary and Poland? the Moldovan election is crucial in further development of Moldovan orientation towards East or West Igor Dodon is the first president in 20 years to be directly elected by citizens rather than being chosen by parliament

Elections Moldova s presidential election are shaping the country s politics and international orientation pro-Russian President, of Russian ethnic background, President who promises to strengthen ties with Russia and makes the economy of Moldova grow

The election was seen as a battle between those supporting closer ties with Russia and those wanting integration with the European Union

Igor Dodons campaign was concetrated towards neglecting the association agreement with Europe and joining a Russian-sponsored economic bloc instead: Igor Dodon said the election mark a new beginning for a country blighted by poverty and graft

Political system of Moldova Moldova is a parliamentary republic; But: the President in Moldova is more than just a figurehead: i.e. the President can return laws to parliament and dissolve the assembly in certain situations And: Moldova has not had a stable parliamentary government for almost 2 years

Geopolitical implications President vs. Government Dodon's promise to pursue closer ties with Russia rather than the European Union is in direct conflict with the pro- European stance of the current government

Plans after elections? Obvious political message: Presidential elections aren t key elections, but they re a means to strengthen the socialists for a victory which will mean something at the parliamentary elections in 2018 Russia will use this

Reflections... Comparison with the Western Balkan country Macedonia: West vs. East Language: Moldovan or Romanian?; Macedonian or Bulgarian? Nations Moldovans or Romanians?; Macedonians or Macedonians from Greek region Macedonia Unification of Moldova with Romania as a precedent Albanians in Macedonia could ask unification of part of Macedonian territory where they make majority with Albania Big migration Moldavians have Romanian passports, and Macedonians Bulgarian Poverty and corruption

Moldova what next... Moldova must continue to balance between its Eastern and Western neighbors and continue to carry out reforms. Reforms cannot be taken from some other country, they have to be carried out by the people of the country!