Veganmodernism: The Future of Meat Abolition and Technological Disruption
Explore the vision of Veganmodernism for meat abolition, the shifting technology landscape, the current and future costs and impacts of animal products, and the projected peak in global meat production. Delve into a future where modern food products outshine animal-derived foods both in quality and affordability, leading to the collapse of traditional livestock industries by 2030.
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Presentation Transcript
Veganmodernism Our final strategy for meat abolition? Stijn Bruers Effective Altruism Belgium Stijnbruers.wordpress.com
Technology landscape 2070 2020 Island of animal technologies 1800 -10000
Costs (health risks, environmental impact) Past optimal level Current consumption animal products Animal-free food consumption
Costs (health risks, environmental impact) Future optimal level Past optimal level Future cost curve Current consumption animal products Animal-free food
Current situation Vegan Poore J. & Nemecek T. (2018). Reducing food s environmental impacts through producers and consumers. Science 360(6392):987-992.
Peak meat Global animal meat production 2020 2030 2040 2060 2070 Year 2050
The fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption of food and agriculture in history, driven by technology and new business models, is underway. By 2030, modern food products will be higher quality and cost less than half the price of the animal-derived foods they replace, the dairy and cattle industries will have collapsed, and the rest of the livestock industry will follow.
By 2035, demand for cow products will have shrunk by 80% to 90%. Other livestock markets such as chicken, pig, and fish will follow a similar trajectory. The 2030s will see the last industrial slaughterhouse in the U.S. close.
Market strategies for meat abolition Market for animal products Market for animal-free alternatives
Market strategies for meat abolition Market for animal products Market for animal-free alternatives
Market strategies for meat abolition Market for animal products Market for animal-free alternatives Push Pull
Market strategies for meat abolition Demand side push: undercover investigations, animal rights outreach, Pushback from consumers Demand side pull: vegan outreach (cooking workshops, community events, leafleting, go vegan , eat vegan ) Traditional meat eaters have resistance to identity and behavioral change Supply side pull: animal free meat, dairy and eggs, cell-based meat Most support from consumers and producers Supply side push: corporate pressure campaigns, governmental regulations Pushback from producers
Eat meat, not animals Once on the market, consumers will pay for production and marketing of cell-based meat
Neglectedness of cell-based meat R&D Global venture capital investments in cell-based meat, 2019: $75 million Yearly donations to HSUS and Peta: $130 million Yearly donations to all US animal and environmental charities: $12 billion Yearly EU-subsidies for livestock farming: $30 billion Yearly global cancer research funding: $100 billion
Cost-effectiveness comparisons Stijnbruers.wordpress.com : The extreme cost-effectiveness of cell-based meat R&D
Effectiveness = scale x solvability x neglectedness 1011 farm animals used per year X 10% probability of eliminating animal farming X 10-8 years faster development per extra euro funding = 100 farm animals spared per extra euro funding
Comparison: Clean Energy Innovation Policy
Veganmodernism New strategy: look for opportunities to raise, earn and donate money to
