CAISO Availability Assessment Hours Analysis
This content discusses the current issue of generic RA RAAIM assessment hours not reflecting system conditions based on load and market prices. It explains the purpose of availability assessment hours, the frequency of assessment hours, and provides data on the top 5 highest CAISO system loads and DA prices. The analysis aims to assess the extent to which Resource Adequacy resources meet availability standards under high demand conditions.
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Presentation Transcript
Availability Assessment Hours for SCP/RAAIM Portfolio Management Commercial Policy, Planning & Compliance May 18, 2016
Purpose: Provide information on the availability assessment hours as defined by the CAISO tariff and its application to current operations Agenda: 1. Current Issue & Impact 2. Background on Availability Assessment Hours 3. Frequency of Availability Assessment Hours (2014-Current) CAISO System Load DA Market Prices 2
Issue: An analysis performed by Portfolio Management confirms that the current generic RA RAAIM assessment hours are NOT reflective of current system conditions based on system load and DA market prices. 3
Purpose of Availability Assessment Hours (Section 40.9.3): The CAISO shall establish availability assessment hours to assess the extent to which each Resource Adequacy resource has met the availability standards of Section 40.9. The availability assessment hours shall correspond to the operating periods when high demand conditions typically occur and when the availability of Resource Adequacy capacity is most critical to maintaining system reliability. Required Bidding Hours Required Bidding Days November March HE 17-21 Non-Holiday Weekdays* April October HE 14-18 Non-Holiday Weekdays* The CAISO shall annually determine the five hour range for the availability assessment hours for each month and shall specify them in the Business Practice Manual. 4
Top 5 Highest CAISO System Load 100.00% 92.20% 90.00% 88.10% 90.00% 74.29% 79.37% 80.00% 67.28% 70.00% 54.83% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Jan - Mar 2014 Apr - Oct 2014 Nov - Dec 2014 Jan - Mar 2015 Apr - Oct 2015 Nov - Dec 2015 Jan - Feb 2016 Data Source: CAISO OASIS 5
Top 5 Highest DA Prices for DLAP_PGAE-APND 100.00% 89.30% 90.00% 80.00% 72.50% 71.36% 70.63% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 39.22% 40.00% 30.33% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Jan - Mar 2014 Apr - Oct 2014 Nov - Dec 2014 Jan - Mar 2015 Apr - Oct 2015 Nov - Dec 2015 Notes: Comparable results for DLAP-SCE, DLAP-SDGE, TH-NP15, TH-SP15 and TH-ZP26 price nodes. Data Source: CAISO OASIS 6
CAISO System Load November March (2014 & 2015) 250 200 150 100 50 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 CAISO System Load April October (2014 & 2015) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 7
DA Market Prices November March (2014 & 2015) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 DA Market Prices April October (2014 & 2015) 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 8
Next Steps: Confirm that the ISO is reviewing the five hour range for the assessment hours for each month per the ISO tariff and is able to provide supporting documentation. (e.g. LCT Study) Communicate high-level analysis to the ISO that the assessment hours are NOT reflective with 2014/2015 load curve and future forecasts of the load curve. The 2016 load curve remains uncertain at the moment 9
