Impact of COVID-19 on Politics, Public Health, and Economy: Insights and Analysis
The intersection of politics, public health, and economics during the COVID-19 pandemic is explored, highlighting the challenges faced by the United States and other nations. The failure to mitigate the public health crisis, coupled with the rapid economic shock, raises questions about the trade-offs between health and the economy. The role of federalism in pandemic response is also examined, shedding light on the global impact and lessons learned for the future.
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author. Download presentation by click this link. If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
POLITICS & COVID-19 MCGRAW HILL WEBINAR, APRIL 2021 Thomas Patterson
WE THE PEOPLE, 14e NUMBER ONE in American Government Accessibility through Readability Critical Thinking Emphasis Case Studies & Pedagogy Even-handed approach with broad appeal Unparalleled Instructor Support 24 Complimentary HarvardX/EdX Video Lectures
POLITICS & COVID-19 MCGRAW HILL WEBINAR, APRIL 2021 Thomas Patterson
COVID-19 The biggest public health failure in our history The United States should have been a world leader in reducing fatalities from Covid-19 Per capita, US has the most ICU units and hospital beds Yet on deaths per capita, US ranks 165thout of the world s 177 countries for which there are data If US had EU death rate - 91,031 fewer deaths If US had Canada s death rate - 358, 583 fewer deaths Source: Johns Hopkins/World Bank data set.
Public health was not the only major issue economic impact was the other 23.1 21 Unemployed (in millions) 17.8 16.3 14.7 13.3 11.1 10.2 7.1 5.8 Unemployment rate (percent) 4.4 3.5 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Economic shock was more rapid and severe than other recent economic downturns Covid
Globally, no trade off between Covid & economy the lower the death rate, the stronger the economic performance Confirmed deaths per million people. (Aug. 30) US is an outlier. If it fit the global pattern, It should have had: 1) Fewer deaths, OR 2) Deeper recession Which countries have protected both health and the economy in the pandemic? Joe Hasell, Sept. 2020 GDP growth, 2020 Q2 (from previous year)
The 50 States Trade-off between deaths and economic impact? Percentage increase in GDP, 4Q, 2020
Was federalism an advantage or disadvantage in responding to Covid? Western democracies average Covid death rate/100,000 (as of 4/16/2021) Federal 128.2 R=-.06 Unitary 135.4 Source: Johns Hopkins/World Bank data set.
What mattered nationally was clarity of signaling by major leaders Harvard/Cornell leadership study: Consensus: When major leaders were communicating a consistent message on Covid threat, damage to public health and the economy was lower. Conflict: When major leaders were at odds over severity, damage to both was higher.
The American Case Conflicting Messages Donald Trump and other major leaders downplayed the Covid threat TRUMP: America will again, and soon, be open for business very soon a lot sooner than three or four months that somebody was suggesting. A lot sooner. (3/23/2020) TRUMP:[On CDC s mask advisory] It s going to be, really, a voluntary thing. You can do it. You don t have to do it. I m choosing not to do it. (4/3/2020) Andrew Cuomo and other major leaders highlighted the threat: CUOMO: This virus . . . is powerful. It's more dangerous than we expected." (3/3/2020) CUOMO: We're doing . . . aggressive testing and strong social distancing protocols. (3/14/2020)
Party Polarization: Messaging & Cue Taking The conflicting messaging divided along party lines, with Republican leaders downplaying the health threat relative to Democratic leaders. Party polarization: heightened our tendency to take cues from our party s leaders and like-minded media. heightened confirmation bias our tendency to hear what we want to hear when faced with conflicting messages.
Donald Trumps Handling of Pandemic percentage of respondents 54 All voters 43 90 Democrats 7 11 Republicans 86 Disapprove Approve Source: ABC News/Ispos poll, April 2020
Partisan Response (Reported Mask Wearing) Did you wear mask when outside home in last week (percent yes )? 100 90 Democrats 80 70 60 Republicans 50 40 30 April May June Source: Gallup polls, April-June 2020..
Partisan Response Would you feel comfortable attending a crowded party? percentage of respondents 31 11 8 7 March June Democrats Republicans Source: Pew Research Center poll, June 2020
News Media Signaling Trump-related Covid Coverage percentage of coverage (positive & negative statements only) 95 CBS Evening News 5 69 Fox News w/ Brett Baier 31 Negative Positive Source: Thomas Patterson, analysis of Media Tenor data, March 1-November 3, 2020.
Trump-related Economic Coverage percentage of coverage (positive & negative statements only) 67 CBS Evening News 33 7 Fox News w/ Brett Baier 93 Negative Positive Source: Thomas Patterson, analysis of Media Tenor data, March 1-November 3, 2020.
Conservative talk shows were aligned with Trump on Covid threat Healthy people, generally, 99 percent recover very fast, even if they contract it. . . Put it in perspective: 26 people were shot in Chicago alone over the weekend. I doubt you heard about it. You notice there s no widespread hysteria about violence in Chicago. Sean Hannity It s no worse than the common cold, folks, Rush Limbaugh It s a great time to fly. Laura Ingraham
Conservative talk-show viewers/listeners perception of pandemic percentage of conservative talk show listeners/viewers Has the pandemic been made out to be a bigger deal than it actually is? yes 78 no 3 Source: Pew Research Center survey, September 2020.
Covid Misinformation and Media Exposure 3 2.8 Level of misinformation 2.6 conservative media 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 mainstream print media 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Level of exposure low to high Source; Kathleen Hall Jamieson, The Relation between Media Consumption and Misinformation at the Outset of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in the US, Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Journal, April 2020.
Where Federalism Comes In Trump s power bully pulpit could restrict travel into country could have directed mask wearing/social distancing for federal employees and when on federal property Governors power constitutionally, public health policy is largely reserved for states governors have public health emergency powers can order statewide mask wearing, social distancing, closings, curfews, etc
Journal of Health Politics Study Examined how quickly states imposed preventive measures, using five predictor variables: 1. Governor s political party 2. Population density of state 3. Level of Covid in neighboring states 4. Level of Covid within the state 5. Level of state s economic prosperity Best predictor: Governor s political party
Governors Response Restrictions on Social Gatherings Time lapse since first reported community transmission in US 3 15 days or less 1 15 16-20 days 7 6 more than 21/none 18 Democratic governor Republican governor Source: Christopher Adolph, et al, Pandemic Politics: Timing State-Level Social Distancing Responses to COVID-19, Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, August 2020, pp. 1-17.
Governors Response Order to close non-essential businesses Time lapse since first reported community transmission in US 6 The study also found that Republican governors were lower to: close schools restrict restaurant operations issue stay-at-home orders 24 days or less 0 7 25-30 days 5 12 more than 30/none 20 Democratic governor Republican governor Source: Christopher Adolph, et al, Pandemic Politics: Timing State-Level Social Distancing Responses to COVID-19, Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, August 2020, pp. 1-17.
Covid deaths over time 7-day moving average of deaths per 100,00 from time first deaths reported NY, NJ, PA, CT, & RI account for high number 1.2 1.1 0.92 0.89 0.7 0.33 0.27 0.23 0.2 50 day mark Republican governor 175 day mark 300 day mark Democratic governor Source: Thomas Patterson, based on CDC date
Covid Deaths (as of 4/16/2021) States with: Republican governor 162/100,000 Democratic governor 154/100,000 Excluding states (NY, NJ, MA, PA, CT, RI) at the epicenter of first wave of COVID: Republican governor 159/100,000 Democratic governor 126/100,000 Source: Derived by author from New York Times Covid data base.
Covid Vaccination Rates State ranking in vaccinations per capita (as of 4/18/21) 6 Best 10 4 5 Next-to-best 10 5 7 Middle 10 3 5 Next-to-worst 10 5 0 Worst 10 10 Democratic governor Republican governor Note: Based on those who are fully vaccinated. The rankings vary only slightly if based on single dose only
Vaccine or No Vaccine, by Partisanship percentage of respondents 91 Democrats 7 50 Republicans 45 Have/will take Have not/will not take Source: Quinnipiac poll, April 2020
Economic dimension (jobs) State ranking in non-farm jobs lost per capita (between Feb 2020 and Feb 2021) 1 Best 10 9 3 Next-to-best 10 7 5 Middle 10 5 6 Next-to-worst 10 4 8 Worst 10 2 Democratic governor Republican governor Source: Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire
Economic dimension (GDP, Q1-Q2, 2020) State ranking in decline in GDP from smallest decline to largest (between 1stQ and 2ndQ, 2020) 4 Best 10 6 4 Next-to-best 10 6 5 Middle 10 5 4 Next-to-worst 10 6 7 Worst 10 3 Democratic governor Republican governor Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Economic dimension (GDP, Q4, 2020) State ranking in increase in GDP in 4thQ, 2020 2 Best 10 8 3 Next-to-best 10 7 4 Middle 10 6 4 Next-to-worst 10 6 9 Worst 10 1 Democratic governor Republican governor Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
The 50 States Trade-off between deaths and economic impact Percentage increase in GDP, 4Q, 2020
The States (less NY, NJ, MA, RI, CT, PA) Trade-off between deaths and economic impact Percentage increase in GDP, 4Q, 2020
Thank you Questions, Objections, Comments
WE THE PEOPLE, 14e NUMBER ONE in American Government Accessibility through Readability Critical Thinking Emphasis Case Studies & Pedagogy Even-handed approach with broad appeal Unparalleled Instructor Support 24 Complimentary HarvardX/EdX Video Lectures
Adjusted for Age, Ratio of Death Rates Higher for Minorities except Asian Americans ratio of death rates Asian American 1 White 1 Black 2 Latino 2.4 Pacific Islander 2.6 Indigenous 3.3 Source: APM Research Lab
Contrary to a common belief, Covid death rate was not necessarily higher in more densely population areas The ten counties with highest death rates all had populations under 10,000 Jerauld, South Dakota Gove, Kansas Foard, Texas Iron, Wisconsin Galax, Virginia Buffalo, South Dakota Dickey, North Dakota Emporia, Virginia Hancock, Georgia Gregory, South Dakota Source: CDC, February, 2021
Hannity-Carlson Study Study examined two audiences - Audience for Sean Hannity, who downplayed the threat Audience for Tucker Carlson, who said threat was serious Survey finding: On average, Carlson audience members changed protective behavior much earlier than did Hannity audience members Epidemiological/audience ratings finding: U.S. counties with higher audience ratings for Hannity had higher average death and hospitalization rates than other counties. Source: Leonardo Bursztyn, Aakaash Rao, Christopher Roth, and David Yanagizawa-Drott, Misinformation During a Pandemic, University of Chicago, September 2020.
Trump v. Governors percentage approving of president s/state governor s response to Covid State-by-state polls were conducted. All governors but one (Kemp of Georgia) had higher approval ratings than Trump. Trump 43 Republican governor average 67 Democratic governor average 69 Source: Survey Monkey state-by-state polls, May 2020
