Weekly System Status 2022 - Week 1 (19/12/2022 - 25/12/2022) Analysis
This weekly report provides insights into the National Electricity Supply System's adequacy, including data on system capacity, demand, dispatchable generation, and more. The report highlights historical peak system capacity and demand, residual load forecasts, actual demand statistics, and dispatchable generation energy sent out. Additionally, it compares week-on-week and year-on-year growth in dispatchable generation energy sent out, offering valuable information for monitoring and planning electricity supply in the medium term.
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Weekly System Status 2022 week 1 (19/12/2022 25/12/2022) System Operator
Introduction and Disclaimer Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it.
Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand Available Dispatchable Generation (MW) 25,604 24,384 27,080 26,058 25,519 25,680 26,580 Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl IOS 26,104 25,548 25,576 24,848 24,724 22,265 20,893 Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) -1.9% -4.6% 5.9% 4.9% 3.2% 15.3% 27.2% Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) -1.9% -4.6% 5.9% 4.9% 3.2% 15.3% 27.2% Non-commercial Generation (MW) Residual Load Forecast (MW) Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand) Date Mon 19/Dec/2022 Tue 20/Dec/2022 Wed 21/Dec/2022 Thu 22/Dec/2022 Fri 23/Dec/2022 Sat 24/Dec/2022 Sun 25/Dec/2022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26,163 25,851 25,488 25,098 24,341 23,029 21,871 0.2% 1.2% -0.3% 1.0% -1.5% 3.4% 4.7% RSA Total Available Generation Incl Renewables (MW) Actual RSA Contracted Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted Demand) Non-commercial Generation (MW) Contracted Load Forecast (MW) 28,524 28,363 27,604 27,244 26,249 25,053 24,988 Date Mon 19/Dec/2022 Tue 20/Dec/2022 Wed 21/Dec/2022 Thu 22/Dec/2022 Fri 23/Dec/2022 Sat 24/Dec/2022 Sun 25/Dec/2022 28,059 27,033 29,016 28,630 26,794 27,530 29,121 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28,559 28,197 27,512 27,420 25,999 24,116 23,791 -1.8% -4.1% 5.5% 4.4% 3.1% 14.2% 22.4% -1.8% -4.1% 5.5% 4.4% 3.1% 14.2% 22.4% -0.1% 0.6% 0.3% -0.6% 1.0% 3.9% 5.0% Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all emergency generation resources. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 49 191 MW. These figures do not include any demand side products. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.
Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Week 51 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Annual Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Energy Sent Out Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 3,200 -11.72 -3.33 GWh % % Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 01 Jan to 25 Dec Energy 222,043 221,015 216,463 203,725 207,089 200,179 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 225,203 224,202 219,563 206,725 210,022 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. (2022 week 1 ~ 2021 week 1) 2022 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2021 vs 2022): Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out. 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. 2021 Dispatchable Generation Energy 2022 Residual Energy Forecast 2022 Dispatchable Generation Energy 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 Energy Sent Out GWh 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Week-on-Week Residual Energy Demand Week 51 : Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Energy Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 3,639 0.30 -0.39 GWh % % Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 01 Jan to 25 Dec Energy 222,088 221,401 217,823 205,137 209,024 208,159 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 225,248 224,594 220,924 208,151 211,958 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. (2022 week 1 ~ 2021 week 1) 2022 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2021 vs 2022): Residual Energy Demand. 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. 2021 Residual Energy (Incl IOS) 2022 Residual Energy Forecast 2022 Residual Energy (Incl IOS) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 Energy Demand GWh 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week 5
Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Energy Demand Week 51 : RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Energy Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 4,007 1.61 0.01 GWh % % Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 01 Jan to 25 Dec Energy 232,069 232,081 229,195 217,368 223,940 223,927 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 235,426 235,482 232,511 220,630 227,166 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. (2022 week 1 ~ 2021 week 1) 2022 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2021 vs 2022): RSA Contracted Energy Demand. 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. 2021 RSA Contracted Energy (Incl IOS) 2022 RSA Contracted Energy Forecast 2022 RSA Contracted Energy (Incl IOS) 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 Energy Demand GWh 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week 6
Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Week 51 : Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics Annual Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 22,020 -14.35 -1.66 MW % % Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Peak Date Tue 30-May-2017 Mon 16-Jul-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Wed 17-Jun-2020 Thu 15-Jul-2021 Thu 02-Jun-2022 Annual Peak 35,457 34,256 33,066 32,384 32,292 31,756 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. (2022 week 1 ~ 2021 week 1) 2022 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2021 vs 2022): Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand. 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. 2021 Dispatchable Generation Peak 2022 Residual Peak Forecast 2022 Dispatchable Generation Peak 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 Peak Demand MW 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week 7
Week-on-Week Residual Peak Demand Week 51 : Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 26,104 0.62 -2.62 MW % % Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Peak Date Tue 30-May-2017 Tue 29-May-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Wed 15-Jul-2020 Tue 08-Jun-2021 Thu 23-Jun-2022 Annual Peak 35,517 34,907 33,746 32,756 34,029 33,136 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. (2022 week 1 ~ 2021 week 1) 2022 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2021 vs 2022): Residual Peak Demand. 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. 2021 Residual Peak (Incl IOS) 2022 Residual Peak Forecast 2022 Residual Peak (Incl IOS) 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 Peak Demand MW 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Peak Demand Week 51 : RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 28,559 2.26 -0.97 MW % % Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Peak Date Tue 30-May-2017 Tue 29-May-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Tue 01-Sep-2020 Thu 22-Jul-2021 Thu 23-Jun-2022 Annual Peak 35,769 35,345 34,510 34,155 35,005 34,666 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. (2022 week 1 ~ 2021 week 1) 2022 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2021 vs 2022): RSA Contracted Peak Demand. 2022 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2021. 2021 RSA Contracted Peak (Incl IOS) 2022 RSA Contracted Peak Forecast 2022 RSA Contracted Peak (Incl IOS) 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 Peak Demand MW 31,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Weekly Generation Availability Week Annual (Jan - Dec) 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 2022 2021 Energy Availability Factor (Eskom EAF) 53.16 55.42 56.91 58.34 55.31 56.62 59.01 55.24 56.44 56.51 54.49 51.53 50.75 50.43 58.15 61.79 10.44 11.43 13.33 11.11 11.58 12.05 9.62 11.35 9.89 12.19 9.13 11.47 15.34 16.59 Planned Outage Factor 10.55 10.81 35.36 32.12 28.54 29.25 31.91 29.84 29.28 31.37 31.59 29.07 34.49 35.31 32.76 32.01 Unplanned Outage Factor 29.78 24.53 1.04 1.03 1.22 1.30 1.20 1.49 2.09 2.04 2.08 2.23 1.89 1.69 1.15 0.97 Other Outage Factor 1.52 2.87 EAF: Ratio of the available energy generation over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. Outage Factors: Ratio of the energy losses over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. YTD: Year-to-Date (01 January of current year to current week)
52 Week Outlook MW RSA MW MW MW MW MW MW MW The maintenance plan included in these assumptions includes a base scenario of outages (planned risk level). As there is opportunity for further outages, these will be included. This likely risk scenario includes an additional 1500 MW of outages on the base plan. The expected import at Apollo is included. Avon and Dedisa is also included. The forecast used is the latest operational weekly residual peak forecast, which expected renewable generation. Operating Reserve Generation: 2 200 MW Unplanned Outage (UA): 13 000 MW Reserves: OR + UA = 15 200 MW Eskom Installed Capacity: 48 186 MW Installed Dispatchable Capacity: 49 191 MW (Incl. Avon and Dedisa) Week Start Week Residual Forecast Available Dispatchable Capacity 40742 42456 43656 43016 43591 43994 43344 43644 43319 43788 43788 44523 44523 44523 43931 44231 45408 46023 46213 46987 46987 47177 47377 47229 47177 47177 47100 47642 47642 47970 47622 47047 46407 45860 46179 45734 45901 45906 45388 44350 43970 44060 43776 42963 43133 42377 42490 41907 41780 43132 41939 40390 40190 Available Capacity (Less OR and UA) 25542 27256 28456 27816 28391 28794 28144 28444 28119 28588 28588 29323 29323 29323 28731 29031 30208 30823 31013 31787 31787 31977 32177 32029 31977 31977 31900 32442 32442 32770 32422 31847 31207 30660 30979 30534 30701 30706 30188 29150 28770 28860 28576 27763 27933 27177 27290 26707 26580 27932 26739 25190 24990 Planned Maintenance Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA) 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 Planned Risk Level (-15200 MW) 2202 1461 1611 479 903 862 -140 35 -125 413 -160 490 -43 117 -1842 -1815 -1130 -1198 -1406 -1562 -1735 -1872 -2490 -1744 -1797 -1628 -2210 -1220 -1194 -981 -1375 -1138 -1253 -1454 -1058 -1427 -1090 -734 -377 -1411 -1691 -1011 -786 -1299 -1192 -1642 -1399 -1799 -1879 -469 -1081 -1529 288 Likely Risk Senario (-16700 MW) 702 -39 111 -1021 -597 -638 -1640 -1465 -1625 -1087 -1660 -1010 -1543 -1383 -3342 -3315 -2630 -2698 -2906 -3062 -3235 -3372 -3990 -3244 -3297 -3128 -3710 -2720 -2694 -2481 -2875 -2638 -2753 -2954 -2558 -2927 -2590 -2234 -1877 -2911 -3191 -2511 -2286 -2799 -2692 -3142 -2899 -3299 -3379 -1969 -2581 -3029 -1212 Contracted Forecast 25799 27829 28880 29372 29522 29722 30074 30199 30034 29937 30316 30401 31014 30853 32219 32493 32984 33668 33601 34531 34704 35031 35849 35053 35055 34886 35391 35153 35127 35242 35288 34476 34154 33807 33730 33641 33478 33126 32252 32248 32438 31837 31305 30945 31008 30887 30757 30574 30527 30588 30007 28906 26888 23340 25795 26845 27337 27488 27932 28284 28409 28244 28175 28748 28833 29366 29206 30573 30846 31338 32021 32419 33349 33522 33849 34667 33773 33774 33605 34110 33662 33636 33751 33797 32985 32460 32114 32037 31961 31791 31440 30565 30561 30461 29871 29362 29062 29125 28819 28689 28506 28459 28401 27820 26719 24702 8449 6735 5535 6175 5600 5197 5847 5547 5872 5403 5403 4668 4668 4668 5260 4960 3783 3168 2978 2204 2204 2014 1814 1962 2014 2014 2091 1549 1549 1221 1569 2144 2784 3331 3012 3457 3290 3285 3803 4841 5221 5131 5415 6228 6058 6814 6701 7284 7411 6059 7252 8801 9001 26-Dec-22 02-Jan-23 09-Jan-23 16-Jan-23 23-Jan-23 30-Jan-23 06-Feb-23 13-Feb-23 20-Feb-23 27-Feb-23 06-Mar-23 13-Mar-23 20-Mar-23 27-Mar-23 03-Apr-23 10-Apr-23 17-Apr-23 24-Apr-23 01-May-23 08-May-23 15-May-23 22-May-23 29-May-23 05-Jun-23 12-Jun-23 19-Jun-23 26-Jun-23 03-Jul-23 10-Jul-23 17-Jul-23 24-Jul-23 31-Jul-23 07-Aug-23 14-Aug-23 21-Aug-23 28-Aug-23 04-Sep-23 11-Sep-23 18-Sep-23 25-Sep-23 02-Oct-23 09-Oct-23 16-Oct-23 23-Oct-23 30-Oct-23 06-Nov-23 13-Nov-23 20-Nov-23 27-Nov-23 04-Dec-23 11-Dec-23 18-Dec-23 25-Dec-23 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 excludes the (OR) from Assumption Risk Level Green Yellow Orange Red Description Adequate Generation to meet Demand and Reserves. < 1 000MW Possibly short to meet Reserves 1 001MW 2 000MW Definitively short to meet Reserves and possibly Demand > 2 001MW Short to meet Demand and Reserves
Current Installed Capacity (MW) CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) 500.0 2,287.1 3,442.6 6,280.2 Renewable Energy Statistics Note: Times are expressed as hour beginning Maximum Difference between Consecutive Evening Peaks (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Maximum Contribution (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Cal Year Indicator Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date CSP 506.2 PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) 2,921.0 01-Jul-2022 13:00 1,229.8 23-Dec-2016 13:00 1,708.2 25-Dec-2017 18:00 1,902.3 02-Oct-2018 16:00 1,872.0 14-Dec-2019 15:00 2,113.9 01-Dec-2020 19:00 2,639.3 15-Dec-2021 17:00 2,921.0 01-Jul-2022 13:00 Cal Year Indicator Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Total (Incl other REs) 1,744 07-Aug-2021 to 08-Aug-2021 828 30-Aug-2016 to 31-Aug-2016 1,038 19-Jun-2017 to 20-Jun-2017 1,336 01-Sep-2018 to 02-Sep-2018 1,464 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019 1,488 31-Aug-2020 to 01-Sep-2020 1,744 07-Aug-2021 to 08-Aug-2021 1,523 07-Aug-2022 to 08-Aug-2022 2,099.5 5,126.1 All Time All Time 15-Mar-2022 15:00 200.9 11-Aug-2016 14:00 302.0 07-Nov-2017 10:00 399.7 04-Dec-2018 16:00 502.1 24-Sep-2019 11:00 504.5 25-Nov-2020 12:00 504.9 30-Nov-2021 16:00 506.2 15-Mar-2022 15:00 24-Oct-2021 12:00 1,350.5 16-Dec-2016 12:00 1,432.5 27-Oct-2017 12:00 1,392.1 03-Oct-2018 12:00 1,375.6 19-Jan-2019 12:00 1,929.2 25-Nov-2020 12:00 2,099.5 24-Oct-2021 12:00 2,048.8 20-Nov-2022 11:00 05-Sep-2022 12:00 2,576.3 23-Dec-2016 13:00 3,142.7 13-Dec-2017 13:00 3,298.9 28-Sep-2018 11:00 3,530.6 27-Oct-2019 13:00 4,050.0 24-Nov-2020 13:00 4,784.7 01-Nov-2021 13:00 5,126.1 05-Sep-2022 12:00 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 Maximum proportion that Renewables contributed towards actual hourly energy supplied (%) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Annual Energy Contribution (MWh) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Cal Year All Time Maximum Indicator Annual Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) Cal Year Indicator Total (Incl other REs) 19.3% 05-Sep-2022 12:00 9.8% 23-Dec-2016 13:00 12.7% 25-Dec-2017 15:00 13.1% 01-Jan-2018 14:00 13.9% 14-Dec-2019 14:00 16.1% 27-Dec-2020 15:00 19.1% 01-Nov-2021 13:00 19.3% 05-Sep-2022 12:00 Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date 1,656,017 5,069,146 9,601,271 16,085,576 All Time 529,522 2,630,141 3,730,771 6,951,261 2016 2016 687,703 3,324,857 5,081,023 9,198,632 2017 2017 1,031,288 3,282,124 6,467,095 10,887,902 2018 2018 1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945 2019 2019 1,626,049 4,140,212 6,625,830 12,478,704 2020 2020 1,656,017 5,069,146 8,359,224 15,208,327 2021 2021 1,438,229 4,825,662 9,601,271 16,085,576 2022 2022
