Weekly System Status 2021: Week 43 Overview
This weekly report provides an overview of the National Electricity Supply System's performance for Week 43 of 2021 (25th to 31st October). It includes data on historic daily peak system capacity, dispatchable generation, energy sent out, and operating reserve margins. The report aims to offer insights into the adequacy of the electricity supply system in the medium term. Disclaimer: Data presented is for informational purposes only and subject to verification and validation.
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Weekly System Status 2021 week 43 (25/10/2021 31/10/2021) System Operator
Introduction and Disclaimer Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it. 2
Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand Available Dispatchable Generation (MW) 28,907 28,892 31,150 29,977 29,739 29,855 29,328 Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl IOS 28,821 28,873 28,731 29,211 26,863 26,556 25,498 Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) 0.3% 0.1% 8.4% 2.6% 10.7% 12.4% 15.0% Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) 0.3% 0.1% 8.4% 2.6% 10.7% 12.4% 15.0% Non-commercial Generation (MW) Residual Load Forecast (MW) Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand) Date Mon 25/Oct/2021 Tue 26/Oct/2021 Wed 27/Oct/2021 Thu 28/Oct/2021 Fri 29/Oct/2021 Sat 30/Oct/2021 Sun 31/Oct/2021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28,193 28,537 28,487 29,442 27,419 26,759 26,294 -2.2% -1.2% -0.9% 0.8% 2.1% 0.8% 3.1% RSA Total Available Generation Incl Renewables (MW) Actual RSA Contracted Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted Demand) Non-commercial Generation (MW) Contracted Load Forecast (MW) 30,138 30,767 30,571 30,427 29,020 27,772 27,850 Date Mon 25/Oct/2021 Tue 26/Oct/2021 Wed 27/Oct/2021 Thu 28/Oct/2021 Fri 29/Oct/2021 Sat 30/Oct/2021 Sun 31/Oct/2021 30,707 31,016 32,968 30,945 32,882 30,778 30,843 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30,621 30,997 30,549 30,179 28,624 27,479 27,013 0.3% 0.1% 7.9% 2.5% 14.9% 12.0% 14.2% 0.3% 0.1% 7.9% 2.5% 14.9% 12.0% 14.2% -1.6% -0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 1.4% 1.1% 3.1% Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all emergency generation resources. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 49 590 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). These figures do not include any demand side products. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation. 3
Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Week 43 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Annual Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Energy Sent Out Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 3,871 -4.45 2.61 GWh % % Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 01 Jan to 31 Oct Energy 190,165 188,645 187,967 184,404 172,836 176,727 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 226,721 225,203 224,202 219,563 206,725 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. (2021 week 1 ~ 2020 week 1) 2021 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2020 vs 2021): Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out. 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. 2020 Dispatchable Generation Energy 2021 Residual Energy Forecast 2021 Dispatchable Generation Energy 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 Energy Sent Out GWh 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Week-on-Week Residual Energy Demand Week 43 : Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Energy Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual Note: 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. (2021 week 1 ~ 2020 week 1) 4,037 -0.40 2.67 GWh % % Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 01 Jan to 31 Oct Energy 190,233 188,674 188,129 185,235 174,199 178,204 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 226,808 225,248 224,594 220,924 208,151 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh 2021 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2020 vs 2021): Residual Energy Demand. 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. 2020 Residual Energy (Incl IOS) 2021 Residual Energy Forecast 2021 Residual Energy (Incl IOS) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 Energy Demand GWh 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week 5
Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Energy Demand Week 43 : RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Energy Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 4,352 1.00 3.88 GWh % % Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 01 Jan to 31 Oct Energy 199,056 196,888 196,923 194,634 184,008 190,459 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 238,069 235,426 235,482 232,511 220,630 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. (2021 week 1 ~ 2020 week 1) 2021 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2020 vs 2021): RSA Contracted Energy Demand. 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. 2020 RSA Contracted Energy (Incl IOS) 2021 RSA Contracted Energy Forecast 2021 RSA Contracted Energy (Incl IOS) 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 Energy Demand GWh 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Week 43 : Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics Annual Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 27,961 -1.01 -0.28 MW % % Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Peak Date Thu 04-Aug-2016 Tue 30-May-2017 Mon 16-Jul-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Wed 17-Jun-2020 Thu 15-Jul-2021 Annual Peak 34,181 35,457 34,256 33,066 32,384 32,292 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. (2021 week 1 ~ 2020 week 1) 2021 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2020 vs 2021): Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand. 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. 2020 Dispatchable Generation Peak 2021 Residual Peak Forecast 2021 Dispatchable Generation Peak 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 Peak Demand MW 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week 7
Week-on-Week Residual Peak Demand Week 43 : Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 29,211 1.77 3.89 MW % % Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Peak Date Thu 07-Jul-2016 Tue 30-May-2017 Tue 29-May-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Wed 15-Jul-2020 Tue 08-Jun-2021 Annual Peak 34,488 35,517 34,907 33,746 32,756 34,029 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. (2021 week 1 ~ 2020 week 1) 2021 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2020 vs 2021): Residual Peak Demand. 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. 2020 Residual Peak (Incl IOS) 2021 Residual Peak Forecast 2021 Residual Peak (Incl IOS) 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 Peak Demand MW 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Peak Demand Week 43 : RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 30,997 3.90 2.49 MW % % Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Peak Date Mon 30-May-2016 Tue 30-May-2017 Tue 29-May-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Tue 01-Sep-2020 Thu 22-Jul-2021 Annual Peak 34,913 35,769 35,345 34,510 34,155 35,005 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. (2021 week 1 ~ 2020 week 1) 2021 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2020 vs 2021): RSA Contracted Peak Demand. 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. 2020 RSA Contracted Peak (Incl IOS) 2021 RSA Contracted Peak Forecast 2021 RSA Contracted Peak (Incl IOS) 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 Peak Demand MW 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week
Weekly Generation Availability Week Annual (Jan - Dec) 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 YTD 2020 Energy Availability Factor (Eskom EAF) 68.07 69.77 64.66 65.36 65.21 64.61 62.12 64.08 62.35 61.08 57.66 58.37 59.08 58.46 62.55 65.04 7.60 9.59 11.85 9.69 12.79 11.61 10.44 11.35 13.36 12.21 12.53 11.53 10.95 10.80 Planned Outage Factor 10.56 11.24 21.96 18.57 21.08 22.59 19.46 21.29 24.87 21.28 20.99 23.32 27.02 27.35 27.63 28.64 Unplanned Outage Factor 23.93 20.88 2.37 2.07 2.41 2.36 2.54 2.49 2.57 3.29 3.30 3.39 2.79 2.75 2.34 2.10 Other Outage Factor 2.96 2.84 EAF: Ratio of the available energy generation over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. Outage Factors: Ratio of the energy losses over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. YTD: Year-to-Date (01 January of current year to current week) 10
52 Week Outlook MW RSA MW MW MW MW MW MW MW The maintenance plan included in these assumptions includes a base scenario of outages (planned risk level). As there is opportunity for further outages, these will be included. This likely risk scenario includes an additional 2000 MW of outages on the base plan. The expected import at Apollo is included. Avon and Dedisa is also included. The forecast used is the latest operational weekly forecast, which excludes the expected renewable generation. Operating Reserve Generation: 2 200 MW Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA): 12 000 MW (11000 MW from April 22) Reserves: OR + UA = 14 200 MW Eskom Installed Capacity: 48 585 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units) Installed Dispatchable Capacity: 49 590 MW (Incl. Avon and Dedisa) Medupi Unit 4 capacity of 720MW has been removed from the capacity planning models by including it in the committed PCLF (although it is UCLF). < 1 000MW Possibly short to meet Reserves 1 001MW 2 000MW Definitively short to meet Reserves and possibly Demand > 2 001MW Short to meet Demand and Reserves Week Start Week Residual Forecast Available Dispatchable Capacity 45554 42456 42052 42167 42083 43132 43960 42852 43102 42947 42712 43101 42623 42813 42846 42552 42681 43125 43807 43797 42913 43726 44347 44537 44492 44492 44967 46401 46401 46401 46254 45756 45437 45735 45858 45796 46033 46033 45843 45228 44544 44561 44561 44416 44676 44291 43324 43058 43590 42623 42983 42630 42391 42331 Available Capacity (Less OR and UA) 31354 28256 27852 27967 27883 28932 29760 28652 28902 28747 28512 28901 28423 28613 28646 28352 28481 28925 29607 29597 28713 29526 31147 31337 31292 31292 31767 33201 33201 33201 33054 32556 32237 32535 32658 32596 32833 32833 32643 32028 31344 31361 31361 31216 31476 31091 30124 29858 30390 29423 29783 29430 29191 29131 Planned Maintenance Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA) 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 Planned Risk Level (-14200 MW) 2721 -91 -145 -210 -217 1092 2024 2390 4438 1957 1285 1202 716 108 -268 -714 -391 -340 82 221 -449 111 972 900 649 617 645 1322 634 733 -874 -230 -383 -326 -227 -405 -238 -617 -107 103 -130 -287 38 337 834 208 -148 -134 82 -387 -255 -21 -156 -558 Likely Risk Senario (-16200 MW) 721 -2091 -2145 -2210 -2217 -908 24 390 2438 -43 -715 -798 -1284 -1892 -2268 -2714 -2391 -2340 -1918 -1779 -2449 -1889 -1028 -1100 -1351 -1383 -1355 -678 -1366 -1267 -2874 -2230 -2383 -2326 -2227 -2405 -2238 -2617 -2107 -1897 -2130 -2287 -1962 -1663 -1166 -1792 -2148 -2134 -1918 -2387 -2255 -2021 -2156 -2558 Contracted Forecast 29901 30173 30125 30305 30200 29941 29837 28362 26565 28986 29423 29894 29903 30660 31070 31222 31028 31137 31398 31249 31216 31470 31552 31814 32020 32052 32553 33309 33997 33899 35359 34352 34186 34427 34450 34574 34644 35023 34323 33489 33039 33212 32861 32397 32729 32971 32359 32080 32334 31697 31948 31339 31659 32058 28633 28347 27996 28177 28099 27840 27735 26261 24464 26789 27227 27698 27706 28504 28914 29066 28872 29264 29525 29375 29161 29415 30175 30437 30642 30674 31122 31878 32566 32468 33928 32786 32620 32861 32884 33000 33071 33450 32750 31924 31474 31647 31323 30878 30641 30883 30272 29992 30308 29809 30038 29451 29346 29689 4036 7134 7538 7423 7507 6458 5630 6738 6488 6643 6878 6489 6967 6777 6744 7038 6909 6465 5783 5793 6677 5864 5243 5053 5098 5098 4623 3189 3189 3189 3336 3834 4153 3855 3732 3794 3557 3557 3747 4362 5046 5029 5029 5174 4914 5299 6266 6532 6000 6967 6607 6960 7199 7259 01-Nov-21 08-Nov-21 15-Nov-21 22-Nov-21 29-Nov-21 06-Dec-21 13-Dec-21 20-Dec-21 27-Dec-21 03-Jan-22 10-Jan-22 17-Jan-22 24-Jan-22 31-Jan-22 07-Feb-22 14-Feb-22 21-Feb-22 28-Feb-22 07-Mar-22 14-Mar-22 21-Mar-22 28-Mar-22 04-Apr-22 11-Apr-22 18-Apr-22 25-Apr-22 02-May-22 09-May-22 16-May-22 23-May-22 30-May-22 06-Jun-22 13-Jun-22 20-Jun-22 27-Jun-22 04-Jul-22 11-Jul-22 18-Jul-22 25-Jul-22 01-Aug-22 08-Aug-22 15-Aug-22 22-Aug-22 29-Aug-22 05-Sep-22 12-Sep-22 19-Sep-22 26-Sep-22 03-Oct-22 10-Oct-22 17-Oct-22 24-Oct-22 31-Oct-22 07-Nov-22 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 residual peak (OR) from Risk Level Green Yellow Orange Red Description Adequate Generation to meet Demand and Reserves. 11
Renewable Energy Statistics Maximum Difference between Consecutive Evening Peaks (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Maximum Contribution (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Cal Year Indicator Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date CSP 504.5 PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) 2,293.6 01-Nov-2021 13:00 1,229.8 23-Dec-2016 13:00 1,708.2 25-Dec-2017 18:00 1,902.3 02-Oct-2018 16:00 1,872.0 14-Dec-2019 15:00 2,113.9 01-Dec-2020 19:00 2,293.6 01-Nov-2021 13:00 Cal Year Indicator Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Total (Incl other REs) 1,744 07-Aug-2021 to 08-Aug-2021 828 30-Aug-2016 to 31-Aug-2016 1,038 19-Jun-2017 to 20-Jun-2017 1,336 01-Sep-2018 to 02-Sep-2018 1,464 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019 1,488 31-Aug-2020 to 01-Sep-2020 1,744 07-Aug-2021 to 08-Aug-2021 2,100.3 4,793.6 All Time All Time 25-Nov-2020 12:00 200.9 11-Aug-2016 14:00 302.0 07-Nov-2017 10:00 399.7 04-Dec-2018 16:00 502.1 24-Sep-2019 11:00 504.5 25-Nov-2020 12:00 503.9 10-Oct-2021 11:00 24-Oct-2021 12:00 1,350.5 16-Dec-2016 12:00 1,432.5 27-Oct-2017 12:00 1,392.1 03-Oct-2018 12:00 1,375.6 19-Jan-2019 12:00 1,929.2 25-Nov-2020 12:00 2,100.3 24-Oct-2021 12:00 01-Nov-2021 13:00 2,576.3 23-Dec-2016 13:00 3,142.7 13-Dec-2017 13:00 3,298.9 28-Sep-2018 11:00 3,530.6 27-Oct-2019 13:00 4,050.0 24-Nov-2020 13:00 4,793.6 01-Nov-2021 13:00 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 Note: Times are expressed as hour beginning Annual Energy Contribution (MWh) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Current Installed Capacity (MW) CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) Cal Year All Time Maximum Indicator Annual Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) 500.0 2,212.1 3,023.4 5,761.0 1,626,049 4,238,171 7,061,365 12,741,957 529,522 2,630,141 3,730,771 6,951,261 2016 687,703 3,324,857 5,081,023 9,198,632 2017 1,031,288 3,282,124 6,467,095 10,887,902 2018 1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945 2019 1,626,049 4,140,212 6,625,830 12,478,704 2020 12 1,337,472 4,238,171 7,061,365 12,741,957 2021
