Gas Markets Committee Study Group: Fueling the Future with Gas
The Gas Markets Committee Study Group 1 focuses on analyzing the role of gas markets in driving the development of new sources of supply, studying gas demand globally and in selected countries, and projecting gas supply up to 2040. The group discusses gas demand drivers, shares work progress through meetings, and plans to finalize their methodology and report structure before the summer.
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GAS MARKETS COMMITTEE STUDY GROUP 1 The role of gas markets (demand) for the development of new sources of supply PLENARY SESSION 14-15 March 2016, Lisbon
SG1 Scope The role of gas markets (demand) for the development of new sources of supply Analysing gas place in energy mix (in a world scope) with regard to other energy sources Analysing gas demand in selected countries (2/3 of global consumption): Identifying gas demand drivers Adapting the drivers for each country Making a projection of expected gas supply up to 2040 for the selected countries FUELING THE FUTURE WITH GAS 2
WHAT HAS BEEN DONE UP TILL NOW AND WHAT IS PLANNED FUELING THE FUTURE WITH GAS 3
WORK PROGRESS THROUGH MEETINGS GAS MARKETS COMMITTEE MEETINGS WORK PROGRESS OCTOBER 2016 MARCH 2017 MARCH OCTOBER 2016 Oran, Shenzhen, March2016 Saint-Petersburg, October 2016 Lisbon, March 2017 October 2015 beginning Methodology Discussion Finalized (June 2016) Gas demand drivers List finalized but to adapt to country/region studied Discussion Discussion Work share Almost finalized Finalized Structure sent (June 2016) Starting to write down Report progress session description and sub topics (5th April deadline) Proposition of session title (Finalized) The role of gas market demand for the development of new sources of supply up to 2040 Committee papers selection Obstacles CIS, AFRICA? CIS, AFRICA? LA, Africa very light 1st December : proposition of session title+ proposition of 3 topics for WGC session Beginning of 2017 : draftintermediate report February /March 2017 : session title, key words March 2017 : session description and sub topics FINALIZED methodology, gas demand drivers and report structure BEFORE SUMMER : Objectives, Deadlines FUELING THE FUTURE WITH GAS 4
Report structure (set in June 2016) A REPORT OF 30-40 PAGES MAX, 3 main chapters 1. The place of gas in energy mix (3,5 pages) : analysis of the place of gas within the energy mix with regard to other energies. Analysis of some drivers : GDP, population, energy prices, climate policy,.. Global analysis Regional analysis : NA, Asia, Europe 2. Geographical scope and Key drivers of gas demand (3 pages): list of drivers fixed but flexible Regional aspects (~20 30 pages) 3. NA : USA, Canada, Mexico Europe : Germany, UK, Italy Asia/Asia Pacific : China, Japan, India, Thailand FSU : Russia, Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Latin America & Africa : very light FUELING THE FUTURE WITH GAS 5
WORK SHARE Countries selected from the list of countries accounting at 2/3 of global gas consumption in 2015 REGION REGIOIN/COUNTRIES TO ANALYSE WORK PROGRESS OCTOBER 2016 WORK PRORESS MARCH 2017 Potential gas drivers : industry, power generation Potential gas drivers by sectors : industry, power generation, with regard to other energies North America NA, USA, Canada, Mexico ME, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE Collect data, share data with SG3 Middle East Russia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan To start STARTED, analysis of Russia, and CIS countries CIS Europe, UK, Germany, Italy Gas demand drivers identified Gas demand analysis by sector Scope to EU Europe Gas demand scenarios for China, drivers : price reforms, industry, power generation. India : drivers population growth Asia/Asia Pacific Asia/ASIA PACIFIC, China, India, Japan, Thailand Gas demand scenarios for China, drivers : price reforms, industry, power generation. Other regions Latin America, Africa LA : almost analysed (Ana) Africa : (to do light) Light parts of the report World gas demand WORLD Place of gas in WORLD started Started in report, presentation FUELING THE FUTURE WITH GAS energy demand
SESSION DESCRIPTION AND SUB TOPICS Committee Type Title/Topic Ind Ins Description/Objective Globally, demand for gas is increasing at a faster pace than both other fossil fuels (coal and oil) and has good prospects at LT (1.5% by 2035 according to IEA 2016) . However, it can be driven differently from one country to another and can therefore either increase (by sector, population, ...) or decrease (energy efficiency, high penetration of renewables, ..). In the light of these developments, it is important to be able to project which supply might be available or should be developed in the future and what investments should be made in gas production (conventional and unconventional), gas imports (LNG and pipe) and gas interconnections. the scope is limited to mature gas markets representing the 2/3 of global gas consumption in 2015. The list of theses countries should be updated up to 2040. Call Papers Topics and Keywords -Which place for gas in the future energy mix? -Gas demand drivers : economics, uses, sustainable development, regulation/energy policy. -Gas market developments in countries consuming 2/3 of global gas in 2015 (Asia, Middle East, Europe, North America) -Prospects for gas supply for theses countries up to 2040. -Conventional and non conventional production. -Import routes by pipe and LNG developments and investment requirements The role of gas demand for the development of new sources of supply up to 2040 GAS MARKETS FUELING THE FUTURE WITH GAS 7
NEXT MEETING To do : To finalize the analysis of some countries To prepare draft/intermediate report parts for reading Will be hold in Paris EDF SACLAY (dates to fix) FUELING THE FUTURE WITH GAS
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION FUELING THE FUTURE WITH GAS 9
