Weather Forecast and Safety Implications for 41st Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020

Agenda
 
 
 Today’s 
predictability
predictability
 of weather
 Weather impact for 
safety
safety
 Weather forecast for the 
start
start
 Wind forecast for the 
next days
next days
 Weather impact for 
sailing
sailing
 
 
Summary
2
 
Today’s
predictability of
weather
 
3
 
4
 
Uncertainty of the prediction
 
unpredictable
 
predictable
The weather is predictable until Friday 23!
 
The spread gives an estimate of the uncertainty of the prediction.
 
Weather impact
for safety at sea
7 days forecast
 
5
 
Weather impact for safety
7 days forecast
 
 
6
 
No weather impact
for safety
 
Weather forecast
 for the start
 
7
 
8
Saturday 17
th
 – 11:00
Sunny
Outside the Grand Harbour
Moderate Breeze
NW BEAUFORT 4   11 -16 KT
 
9
 
Sea state for the START
 Saturday 17
th
 – 09:00 UTC
SEA STATE 3 Slight
Wave height 1 m up to Capo Passero
Mean wave direction NW
Period 5s
 
Sea state 3
Sea state 3
 
2
2
 
W
W
i
i
n
n
d
d
every 3 hours
until Sunday 18
th 
 00UTC
Model: 
COSMO-IT (2.2 km) run00
 
 
 
10
 
11
 
Saturday 17
Saturday 17
th
th
 14:00
 14:00
 
12
 
Saturday 17
Saturday 17
th
th
 17:00
 17:00
 
13
 
Saturday 17
Saturday 17
th
th
 20:00
 20:00
 
14
 
Saturday 17
Saturday 17
th
th
 23:00
 23:00
 
15
 
Sunday 18
Sunday 18
th
th
 02:00
 02:00
 
W
W
i
i
n
n
d
d
Mean sea level pressure 
(every 1 hPa)
every 6 hours
until Friday 23
rd 
 00UTC
Model: 
ECMWF (9 km) run00
 
 
 
16
 
17
 
Sunday 18
Sunday 18
th
th
 06:00 UTC
 06:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
4-5
 
3
 
18
 
Sunday 18
Sunday 18
th
th
 12:00 UTC
 12:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
4-5
 
3
 
19
 
Sunday 18
Sunday 18
th
th
 18:00 UTC
 18:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
4-5
 
1
 
3
 
20
 
Monday 19
Monday 19
th
th
 00:00 UTC
 00:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
2
 
21
 
Monday 19
Monday 19
th
th
 06:00 UTC
 06:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
22
 
Monday 19
Monday 19
th
th
 12:00 UTC
 12:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
23
 
Monday 19
Monday 19
th
th
 18:00 UTC
 18:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
24
 
Tuesday 20
Tuesday 20
th
th
 00:00 UTC
 00:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
2
 
2
 
25
 
Tuesday 20
Tuesday 20
th
th
 06:00 UTC
 06:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
2
 
26
 
Tuesday 20
Tuesday 20
th
th
 12:00 UTC
 12:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
3
 
4
 
27
 
Tuesday 20
Tuesday 20
th
th
 18:00 UTC
 18:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
4
 
28
 
Wednesday 21
Wednesday 21
th
th
 00:00 UTC
 00:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
4
 
5
 
29
 
Wednesday 21
Wednesday 21
th
th
 06:00 UTC
 06:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
4
 
5
 
30
 
Wednesday 21
Wednesday 21
th
th
 12:00 UTC
 12:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
4
 
5
 
31
 
Wednesday 21
Wednesday 21
th
th
 18:00 UTC
 18:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
32
 
Thursday 22
Thursday 22
nd
nd
 00:00 UTC
 00:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
33
 
Thursday 22
Thursday 22
nd
nd
 06:00 UTC
 06:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
34
 
Thursday 22
Thursday 22
nd
nd
 12:00 UTC
 12:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
35
 
Thursday 22
Thursday 22
nd
nd
 18:00 UTC
 18:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
36
 
Friday 23
Friday 23
rd
rd
 00:00 UTC
 00:00 UTC
Sea state and wind
Sea state and wind
 
Weather impact
for sailing
7 days forecast
 
37
 
Weather impact for sailing
7 days forecast
 
 
38
Weather for the next days
 
S
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39
Weather for the next days
Summary
40
 
High pressure
High pressure
Light NW winds will prevail
Light NW winds will prevail
Smooth 2 to slight 3 sea state
Smooth 2 to slight 3 sea state
Colder than average temperatures
Colder than average temperatures
 
(weaker
diurnal sea breeze, stronger nocturnal land breeze)
From tuesday evening moderate south wind
From tuesday evening moderate south wind
and sea state 3-4 in the Strait of Sicily
and sea state 3-4 in the Strait of Sicily
 
41
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Lt. Col. Alessio Canessa from Aeronautica Militare provides insights on the predictability of weather, wind forecasts, and safety impacts for the start of the 41st Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020. Uncertainty of predictions and the 7-day weather forecast for sailing conditions are discussed, highlighting potential thunderstorms, wind variations, and sea states. Detailed information on sea states, wind conditions, and wave heights are presented, aiding in strategizing for the race. Stay informed to ensure safety during this prestigious event.


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  1. Lt. Col. Alessio CANESSA Aeronautica Militare Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica Friday 16thOctober 2020 18.00

  2. Agenda Today s predictability of weather Weather impact forsafety Weather forecast for the start Wind forecast for the next days Weather impact forsailing Summary 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 2

  3. 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 Today s predictabilityof weather 3

  4. Uncertainty of the prediction La Valletta 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 unpredictable predictable The spread gives an estimate of the uncertainty of the prediction. 4

  5. Weather impact forsafetyat sea 7 days forecast 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 5

  6. Weather impact for safety 7 days forecast Thunderstorm Wind Sea State Saturday 17th 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 Sunday 18th Monday 19th Tuesday 20th Wednesday 21st Thursday 22nd Friday 23th 6 No Impact Medium Impact High Impact Severe Impact

  7. 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 Weather forecast forthe start 7

  8. Saturday 17th 11:00 Sunny Outside the Grand Harbour Moderate Breeze NW BEAUFORT 4 11 -16 KT 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 8

  9. Sea state for the START Saturday 17th 09:00 UTC SEA STATE 3 Slight Wave height 1 m up to Capo Passero Mean wave direction NW Period 5s 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 2 Sea state 3 9

  10. 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 Wind every 3 hours until Sunday 18th 00UTC Model: COSMO-IT (2.2 km) run00 10

  11. Saturday 17th14:00 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 11

  12. Saturday 17th17:00 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 12

  13. Saturday 17th20:00 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 13

  14. Saturday 17th23:00 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 14

  15. Sunday 18th02:00 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 15

  16. 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 Wind Model: ECMWF (9 km) run00 Mean sea level pressure (every 1 hPa) every 6 hours until Friday 23rd 00UTC 16

  17. Sunday 18th06:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 3 4-5 17

  18. Sunday 18th12:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 3 4-5 18

  19. Sunday 18th18:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 3 1 4-5 19

  20. Monday 19th00:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 2 20

  21. Monday 19th06:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 21

  22. Monday 19th12:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 22

  23. Monday 19th18:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 23

  24. Tuesday 20th00:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 2 2 24

  25. Tuesday 20th06:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 2 25

  26. Tuesday 20th12:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 4 3 26

  27. Tuesday 20th18:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 4 27

  28. Wednesday 21th00:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 5 4 28

  29. Wednesday 21th06:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 5 4 29

  30. Wednesday 21th12:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 5 4 30

  31. Wednesday 21th18:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 31

  32. Thursday 22nd00:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 32

  33. Thursday 22nd06:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 33

  34. Thursday 22nd12:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 34

  35. Thursday 22nd18:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 35

  36. Friday 23rd00:00 UTC Sea state and wind 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 36

  37. Weather impact forsailing 7 days forecast 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 37

  38. Weather impact for sailing 7 days forecast Thunderstorm Wind Sea State Saturday 17th NW moderate 4 Slight 3 none 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 Sunday 18th NW gentle breeze 3 bcmg light breeze 2 Very light 1 to light breeze 2 light 2 bcmg gentle breeze 3 slight 3 bcmg smooth 2 SHOWER Monday 19th SHOWER smooth 2 Tuesday 20th none smooth 2 Wednesday 21st slight to moderate 3-4 slight to moderate 3-4 Smooth to slight 3-4 none SSE fresh breeze 5 Thursday 22nd SSW moderate breeze 4 SE moderate breeze 4 none Friday 23th none 38 good average bad verybad

  39. Weather for the next days Saturday northwesterly moderate breeze 11-17 knots and sea state 3 up to Capo Passero, becoming east of Sicily gentle breeze 2-3, sea state 2-3 Sunday Cloudy isolated showers north of Sicily, NW Beaufort 2-3, sea state 3 Monday and Tuesday High pressure; north of Sicily northern wind Beaufort 2-3, sea state 2; from Tuesday evening in the Strait of Sicily south wind Beaufort 3-4 and sea state 3 Wednesday and Thursday the anticyclone will move little eastwards, fair weather will persist, but increase of south wind Beaufort 4-5 in the Strait of Sicily 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 39

  40. Weather for the next days Summary High pressure Light NW winds will prevail Smooth 2 to slight 3 sea state Colder than average temperatures (weaker diurnal sea breeze, stronger nocturnal land breeze) From tuesday evening moderate south wind and sea state 3-4 in the Strait of Sicily 41th Rolex Middle Sea Race Malta 2020 40

  41. 41

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