The Future of Communications: Trends and Challenges
CONVERGENCE!
Vint Cerf
February 2012
When does POTS vanish?
•
1976 FCC Brief on Computer and
Communications Convergence (Wiley)
•
Wireline is eroding. Replaced by cable/fiber
•
Wireless is gaining.
•
Remnants of wired POTS will be around along
with wireless for at least two decades more.
•
Major indicator will be VOIP used to link POTS
calls rather than other way around.
Interconnection
•
High speed IP interconnection is becoming a
driver. Peering terms will evolve. 100G+
•
P2P “calls” will vie for market share (Skype,
etc.)
•
ENUM may re-appear (important signal). LTE
and IPv6 end-to-end open new possibilities.
•
Conferencing will move towards IP-based
services (Gotomeeting, hangouts, etc.)
Quality of Service
•
Standards still vital – but arguments over QOS
may diminish with increased bandwidth.
•
BITAG can opine but SDOs will drive.
•
Transcoding will be painful and may lead to
adoption of more common practices
IP and Public Policy
•
IP-based solutions can be far better than conventional
911
–
Detailed location information (in-building, possible sensing
of local conditions…)
•
Improvements in Public Safety Communications (cf:
NIST VCAT Report)
•
Captions independently manipulated, translated, etc.
•
Crowd-sourced assistance
•
Improved speech recognition and generation
•
Richer range of multimedia entertainment options
Privacy and Safety
•
Edge devices, servers and clouds must become more
robust and resistant
•
Browsers and Operating Systems need serious work
•
Intermediaries need to protect their infrastructure and
defend against DOS but apps operators should defend
against malware that attacks at application layer.
•
International conventions for law enforcement and
societal conventions for behavior needed.
•
Strong authentication has a role; so does anonymity.
Explore the evolving landscape of communication technologies through insights on the convergence of traditional phone systems with modern IP-based solutions, the shift towards high-speed IP interconnection, the importance of quality of service standards, the potential of IP-based public safety solutions, and the critical aspects of privacy and safety in the digital realm.
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Presentation Transcript
CONVERGENCE! Vint Cerf Google February 2012
When does POTS vanish? 1976 FCC Brief on Computer and Communications Convergence (Wiley) Wireline is eroding. Replaced by cable/fiber Wireless is gaining. Remnants of wired POTS will be around along with wireless for at least two decades more. Major indicator will be VOIP used to link POTS calls rather than other way around.
Interconnection High speed IP interconnection is becoming a driver. Peering terms will evolve. 100G+ P2P calls will vie for market share (Skype, etc.) ENUM may re-appear (important signal). LTE and IPv6 end-to-end open new possibilities. Conferencing will move towards IP-based services (Gotomeeting, hangouts, etc.)
Quality of Service Standards still vital but arguments over QOS may diminish with increased bandwidth. BITAG can opine but SDOs will drive. Transcoding will be painful and may lead to adoption of more common practices
IP and Public Policy IP-based solutions can be far better than conventional 911 Detailed location information (in-building, possible sensing of local conditions ) Improvements in Public Safety Communications (cf: NIST VCAT Report) Captions independently manipulated, translated, etc. Crowd-sourced assistance Improved speech recognition and generation Richer range of multimedia entertainment options
Privacy and Safety Edge devices, servers and clouds must become more robust and resistant Browsers and Operating Systems need serious work Intermediaries need to protect their infrastructure and defend against DOS but apps operators should defend against malware that attacks at application layer. International conventions for law enforcement and societal conventions for behavior needed. Strong authentication has a role; so does anonymity.
