Statistical Analysis of Child Sexual Abuse in Australian Catholic Church Institutions

 
Statistical issues arising from the
Australian Royal Commission
into Institutional Responses
to Child Sexual Abuse
 
Graham Hepworth
Statistical Consulting Centre
The University of Melbourne
JUNE 2017
ANALYSIS OF CLAIMS OF CHILD
SEXUAL ABUSE MADE WITH
RESPECT TO CATHOLIC CHURCH
INSTITUTIONS IN AUSTRALIA
undefined
 
Issues arising:
 
1. Reporting of proportions
 
2. Double counting
undefined
 
Issues arising:
 
1. Reporting of proportions
 
2. Double counting
undefined
Table 3: Overall proportion of members who were alleged perpetra
tors
undefined
Table 3: Overall proportion of members who were alleged perpetra
tors
undefined
 
“. . . . calculation of the proportion who
were alleged perpetrators”
 
453 Jesuit priests in 1950–2010
 
5.7%  =  . . . out of 453 
?
undefined
 
“. . . . calculation of the proportion who
were alleged perpetrators”
 
453 Jesuit priests in 1950–2010
 
5.7%  =  
26
  out of 453 
?
undefined
 
“. . . . calculation of the proportion who
were alleged perpetrators”
 
453 Jesuit priests in 1950–2010
 
5.7%  =  
16
  out of 453 
?
undefined
 
Average length of ministry:
 
Alleged perpetrators: 34.4 years
 
Others: 20.7 years
undefined
Figure 4: Number of alleged perpetrators by decade of alleged
first incident of child sexual abuse for each religious status group
1960s
1950s
1970s
undefined
Tour de France:
What proportion of Tour de France
riders have been found to take
performance-enhancing drugs?
undefined
 
In drawing attention to the likely misunderstanding arising from the
reporting, we are not suggesting that the Royal Commission has in
any way attempted to distort the results, or to exaggerate the extent
of the problem.  Their documents explain the weighted average
methodology in detail, and give both unweighted and weighted
figures for each proportion calculated.  However, the problem of
misunderstanding remains.  It would have been better if the Royal
Commission had used an expression containing the term “risk”
rather than “proportion” in its reports.
undefined
 
Issues arising:
 
1. Reporting of proportions
 
2. Double counting
undefined
Society of Jesus (Jesuits)
non-ordained
priests
undefined
Society of Jesus (Jesuits)
non-ordained
priests
undefined
Society of Jesus (Jesuits)
non-ordained
priests
undefined
Society of Jesus (Jesuits)
non-ordained
priests
undefined
Actual status of Jesuit members
non-ordained
priests
undefined
Status as counted by the Royal Commission
non-ordained
priests
undefined
Status as originally counted by the Royal Commission
non-ordained
priests
undefined
Actual status of Jesuit members
non-ordained
priests
undefined
Tour de France: riders in teams with
American vs Australian lead riders
American
Australian
undefined
Jesuit priests moving diocese
Sydney
Melbourne
undefined
Tour de France: team riders vs lead riders
team riders
lead riders
undefined
Tour de France: team riders vs lead riders
team riders
lead riders
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This analysis explores statistical issues arising from the Australian Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse, focusing on the reporting of proportions and potential double counting. It includes data on the overall proportion of alleged perpetrators in different religious institutes, such as the Jesuits, and calculates the proportion of Jesuit priests accused of abuse during 1950-2010. Additionally, the average length of ministry for alleged perpetrators and others is compared, revealing significant differences.


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  1. Statistical issues arising from the Australian Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse Graham Hepworth Statistical Consulting Centre The University of Melbourne

  2. JUNE 2017 ANALYSIS OF CLAIMS OF CHILD SEXUAL ABUSE MADE WITH RESPECT TO CATHOLIC CHURCH INSTITUTIONS IN AUSTRALIA

  3. Issues arising: 1. Reporting of proportions 2. Double counting

  4. Issues arising: 1. Reporting of proportions 2. Double counting

  5. Table 3: Overall proportion of members who were alleged perpetrators Percent Religious institute weighted average 2.1% Dominican Friars 4.7% Franciscan Friars 5.7% Jesuits - Society of Jesus 13.9% Marist Fathers - Society of Mary 5.3% Missionaries of the Sacred Heart

  6. Table 3: Overall proportion of members who were alleged perpetrators Percent Religious institute weighted average 2.1% Dominican Friars 4.7% Franciscan Friars 5.7% Jesuits - Society of Jesus 13.9% Marist Fathers - Society of Mary 5.3% Missionaries of the Sacred Heart

  7. . . . . calculation of the proportion who were alleged perpetrators 453 Jesuit priests in 1950 2010 5.7% = . . . out of 453 ?

  8. . . . . calculation of the proportion who were alleged perpetrators 453 Jesuit priests in 1950 2010 5.7% = 26 out of 453 ?

  9. . . . . calculation of the proportion who were alleged perpetrators 453 Jesuit priests in 1950 2010 5.7% = 16 out of 453 ?

  10. Average length of ministry: Alleged perpetrators: 34.4 years Others: 20.7 years

  11. Figure 4: Number of alleged perpetrators by decade of alleged first incident of child sexual abuse for each religious status group 1960s 1970s 1950s

  12. Tour de France: What proportion of Tour de France riders have been found to take performance-enhancing drugs?

  13. In drawing attention to the likely misunderstanding arising from the reporting, we are not suggesting that the Royal Commission has in any way attempted to distort the results, or to exaggerate the extent of the problem. Their documents explain the weighted average methodology in detail, and give both unweighted and weighted figures for each proportion calculated. However, the problem of misunderstanding remains. It would have been better if the Royal Commission had used an expression containing the term risk rather than proportion in its reports.

  14. Issues arising: 1. Reporting of proportions 2. Double counting

  15. Society of Jesus (Jesuits) priests non-ordained

  16. Society of Jesus (Jesuits) priests non-ordained

  17. Society of Jesus (Jesuits) priests non-ordained

  18. Society of Jesus (Jesuits) priests non-ordained

  19. Actual status of Jesuit members priests non-ordained

  20. Status as counted by the Royal Commission priests non-ordained

  21. Status as originally counted by the Royal Commission priests non-ordained

  22. Actual status of Jesuit members priests non-ordained

  23. Tour de France: riders in teams with American vs Australian lead riders American Australian

  24. Jesuit priests moving diocese Sydney Melbourne

  25. Tour de France: team riders vs lead riders team riders lead riders

  26. Tour de France: team riders vs lead riders team riders lead riders

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