Seasonal Flood Monitoring and Forecast in East Africa and Yemen (March 2023)

Enhanced flood monitoring and forecast assumptions for East Africa and Yemen for the season of March 2023, including specific details on flooding conditions in South Sudan, streamflow forecasts for the Blue Nile, Victoria Nile, Rwanda, Burundi, and Yemen. The analysis also predicts seasonal flooding risks across the region, highlighting low flow conditions in East Africa with a potential for flooding in certain areas in April. Collaborative efforts from USGS, NASA, NOAA, UCSB, and regional scientists inform the forecasts.

• Flood Monitoring
• Seasonal Forecast
• East Africa
• Yemen
• Streamflow

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1. FEWS NET Enhanced Flood Monitoring and Forecast Assumptions-East Africa and Yemen March 2023 Seasonal Forecast FEWS NET Science Team: USGS, NASA, NOAA, UCSB+Regional Scientists 0

2. Flooding Conditions in South Sudan (% of the pixel) (% of the pixel) White Nile Sobet Akobo Pibor NOAA VIIRS 5-day comp.: 7 11 Mar 2023 NOAA VIIRS 5-day comp.: 8 12 Feb 2023 Many of the areas in the Sobet, Akobo, and Pibor River catchments have dried out during last 30 days. 1

3. Seasonal Streamflow Forecast @ Point A on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. - Average flow Blue Nile in Ethiopia A B Victoria Nile @ point B on the Victoria Nile in Southern Uganda. Seasonally low flow to continue till mid-April in Nile and Blue Nile Rivers. However, Victoria Nile in Uganda is expected to have above average flow in March and April of 2023. 2 GloFAS monthly streamflow forecast (Mar - Jun 2023)

4. Seasonal Streamflow Forecast in Rwanda and Burundi GloFAS monthly streamflow forecast (Mar - Jun 2023) Above average streamflow is expected in Rwanda, average in Burundi. Streamflow to peak in early April, flooding possible in low lying areas in Rwanda in April. GloFAS seasonal streamflow forecast (Mar - Jun 2023) 3

5. Seasonal Streamflow Forecast (Yemen) A GloFAS monthly streamflow forecast (Mar - Jun 2023) NHyFAS Seasonal forecast (Mar-Jun 2023) Average to above average streamflow is expected across much of Yemen especially during April-May-June period. 4

6. Flooding Risk (seasonal forecast) Low flow continues in the rivers across East Africa, and discharges are not expected to increase until April of 2023. Across Sudd Wetlands, areas have dried out in Sobet, Akobo, and Pibor River catchments. However, upstream of Victoria Nile in Uganda, and rivers in Rwanda and Burindi is expected to have above average to average flow during Mar-April-May. Flooding possible in low lying areas in Southern Uganda and Rwanda in April. 5