Overview of Measles-Containing Vaccines Supply and Demand through UNICEF
The supply and demand dynamics of measles-containing vaccines (MCV) procured through UNICEF are explored, highlighting the total value of vaccines procured, the impact on humanitarian situations, and the challenges faced in forecasting and production. UNICEF works with multiple manufacturers for MCV production, emphasizing the need for flexibility to address fluctuations in demand and the importance of long-term planning for vaccine campaigns. Various statistics on MCV procurement and distribution are presented, underscoring the significance of reliable forecasting for vaccine supply chains.
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Measles Containing Vaccines Overview of Supply through UNICEF 2017 Measles & Rubella Initiative Partners Meeting 7-8 September 2017
MCV Demand through UNICEF 1/2 UNICEF procures MCV on behalf of on average 75 countries per year Total value of vaccines procured: US$ 143 million (2016) with GAVI, Government funding, UNICEF Programmes and MRI funding Demand for Measles and MR vaccine is heavily driven by requirements for supplementary activities, with 75% of MR and 60% of Measles vaccine supplied for supplementary activities Between 2014 and present, estimated 44 million children in humanitarian situations were reached with measles vaccine procured through UNICEF Multi-year tender covering supply requirements through UNICEF for 2018-2020 will be finalized shortly
MCV Demand through UNICEF 2/2 Number of SIAs supplied: Activity 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Measles follow-up 13 17 15 15 9 11 5 8 MR catch-up 2 6 7 5 2 11 MR follow up 2 2 4 4 1 6 Total 13 19 19 21 20 20 8 25 Note for 2017: number based on actual & remaining forecast 2010-2016 Procurement of MCV through UNICEF by region Procurement of MCV through UNICEF 450 6% 1% Quantity of doses in millions 400 20% 350 13% 300 250 200 150 19% 100 26% 50 0 15% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Measles MR MMR CEE/CIS EAPRO ESARO MENA ROSA WCARO LACRO
MCV Supply Market Currently, there are two manufacturers producing WHO pre-qualified Measles vaccine, one manufacturer with MR vaccine and three manufacturers with MMR vaccine. Pipeline manufacturers are in development of Measles, MR and MMR vaccines. UNICEF s market update detailing market situation for MCV is available on UNICEF s website https://www.unicef.org/supply/index_71360.html. Updated version is currently in development and will be published in Q4/2017. UNICEF also publishes markets dashboard monitoring market dynamics of more than 50 essential commodities, among them being Measles, MR and MMR https://www.unicef.org/supply/files/UNICEF_SD_Market_Dashboard_Table_March_2017_- _Final.pdf.
CHALLENGES Forecasting (in)accuracy Short term fluctuations of demand: Require flexibility from the manufacturers to react to large increases/decreases in demand at short notice. Due to long production cycle, postponements of campaigns impact manufacturers predictability of production and thereby cost. This may translate into higher offered price. Long term fluctuation vs. tender forecast: Impacts reliability of signaling of trends to the industry Production scale influences cost and thereby offered price When planning a campaign, countries may not realize the Gavi approval timelines and vaccine delivery lead time. Changes within countries regulatory requirements, countries procurement policies and increasing complexities in country specific import requirements impact delivery timelines.
PROGRESS Sufficiency of supply for planned activities. Availability of MCV vaccines enables supply to catch up campaigns (including India and Indonesia) while maintaining supply to other activities, if planned and forecasted with suppliers GAVI s new Measles and MR Strategy provides greater visibility into countries long-term immunization plans which allows for enhanced visibility into long-term supply requirements UNICEF intends to establish access to 5 dose vial presentation of Measles and MR if and when countries demand materializes
