Overview of Flexibility Study Using EPRI's InFLEXion Tool

The flexibility study aims to assess system flexibility using EPRI's InFLEXion tool for high net load ramp months in 2027. It involves analyzing wind, solar, and load profiles to evaluate flexibility metrics and identify periods of flexibility deficit. The process includes data analysis, production cost simulation, and utilizing SFLEX and Aurora tools.

• Flexibility Study
• EPRI InFLEXion Tool
• System Flexibility
• Production Cost Simulation
• Wind Solar Load Profiles

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1. Flexibility Assessment with EPRIs InFLEXion Tool Julie Jin and Thair Mahmoud SAWG Meeting August 25, 2023

2. Why We Are Doing a Flexibility Study Measure 6 in NERC Essential Reliability Services Task Force Measures Framework Report Report flexibility statistics in future CDR reports 2

3. Study Overview The study will use InFLEXion to carry out flexibility assessment for two months which have high net load ramps in 2027. The 2027 case from the 2024 LTSA will be used for this study. Using SFLEX to develop 5-minute interval load, solar and wind profiles. SFLEX considers statistics of intra-hour variations for wind, solar and load, and spatial correlation for wind Using Aurora to perform production cost simulation to generate 5-minute interval economic dispatch results for each unit for the study period 3

4. Flexibility Study Process Hourly wind/solar/load profiles Initial Matlab data analysis on net load ramping Hourly production cost simulation for unit commitment (Aurora) Increase profile resolution to 5-minutes (SFLEX) 5-minute production cost simulation for quick starts UC and SCED (Aurora) Scope of Analysis InFLEXion 4

5. EPRI InFLEXion Tool Three levels of analysis depending on how much data we input Level 1: Inputs: Demand time series, VG production time series (historical or simulated) Analysis: System flexibility (ramping) requirements Level 2: Inputs: Level 1 inputs plus resource information for every unit Analysis: Flexibility capabilities of resources (e.g. distributions of resources operating ranges, ramp rates as percentage of capacities, etc.) Level 3: Inputs: Level 2 inputs plus production time series for every resource Analysis: Flexibility requirements combined with flexibility available in system at given times; flexibility metrics such as Periods of Flexibility Deficit, Expected Unserved Ramp Source: EPRI Note: Level 4 analysis functionality is still under development. 5 5

6. Study Progress- Initial Matlab Results Maximum Observed 5-Min NetLoad based Ramp Values in (MW) 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -2000 -4000 -6000 (+) 2020 (-) 2020 (+) 2021 (-) 2021 (+) 2022 (-) 2022 (+) 2026 (-) 2026 6

7. Study Progress- Initial Matlab Results Average 5-Min based NetLoad Ramp Values in (MW) 400 300 200 100 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -100 -200 -300 -400 (+) 2020 (-) 2020 (+) 2021 (-) 2021 (+) 2022 (-) 2022 (+) 2026 (-) 2026 7

8. Study Progress- Initial Matlab Results Standard Deviation 5-Min based NetLoad Ramp Values in (MW) 400 300 200 100 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -100 -200 -300 (+) 2020 (-) 2020 (+) 2021 (-) 2021 (+) 2022 (-) 2022 (+) 2026 (-) 2026 8

9. Questions?