Navigating Diversity Challenges in Emergent Aotearoa/New Zealand
This discourse dives into the demographic shifts and challenges in Aotearoa/New Zealand, accentuating an aging population, urbanization dynamics, and the surge in immigrant-led diversity. The evolving landscape presents a superdiverse society with implications on workforce, consumption patterns, and infrastructure demand, necessitating a nuanced approach to immigration and growth management.
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THE CHALLENGES OF DIVERSITY : A NEW AOTEAROA/NEW ZEALAND EMERGES Paul Spoonley Distinguished Professor Emeritus/Co-Director, He Whenua Taurikura Justices of the Peace Regional Conference September 2023 Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATION NEW ZEALAND 1.Ageing population and decliningfertility (doubling of 65+, sub-replacement fertility) 2.Ongoingurbanisation with concentrationin top of the North Island (Auckland effect) 3.Regional population stagnation/decline (many TAs will see the end of population growth) 4.Immigrant-leddiversity (rapidly growing diversity plus M ori-led economic and cultural development) Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
POPULATION ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (MARCH 2023) 4 1 2 3 Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
POPULATION GROWTH AND IMMIGRATION (PC, JUNE 2021) Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
IMMIGRATION 2020 AN ALL TIME HIGH Permanent and long-term and temporary arrivals (March 2020) Largest arrivals: New Zealand (45,500) India/UK (16,200) China (13,400) Net Gain/Loss +91,680 184,884 Arrivals 221,298 Temporary Migrants 81,999 Students Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
IMMIGRATION 2023 Permanent and long-term and temporary arrivals (June 2023) Net Gain/Loss +86,800 195,200 Arrivals +121,600 Non-NZ Citizens -34,800 NZ Citizens Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
A SUPERDIVERSE AOTEAROA Younger age groups will be dominated by M ori,Pasifika and Asian peoples Asian communities will be the fastest growing (18% all New Zealanders, 38% of Aucklanders) New consumption and leisure patterns A significant part of the workforce Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
CHALLENGES OF IMMIGRATION AND GROWTH Impacts on demand (housing, transport) Impacts on productivity Reliance on temporary migrant labour Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
MORI YOUNGER AND GROWING Aroha - 22 years of age Part of a still growing M ori population (2% pa) Fertility rate is dropping but still relatively high Gisborne is predominantly M ori (70%) 20% of all New Zealanders identify as M ori but 25% of workforce, 35% of all U15 year olds Fluent Te Reo speaker (level of fluency and rates have gone up - 250,000 speaking Te Reo) and heavily involved in kapa haka Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
PKEH AGEING AND WEALTHY Bruce 70 years old 1.3 million aged over 65 (nearly 25% of total population) and 222,000 aged over 85 Might live in a hyper-aged town or suburb (nearly 50% aged over 65) Owns his own house plus two rental properties (net worth of 65+ in 2021 was $433,000) Living much longer (23.4 years from the age of 65, was 14 years in 1956) Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
CHINESE A SUPERDIVERSE AOTEAROA Lily 33 years old Born in China but is 1.5 generation Member of one of the dominant Asian communities who now make up 25% of New Zealand s population, and 38% of Auckland s 31% of the NZ prime working age population are from one of the Asian communities In 2030s, Asians 7% of 65+ population, P keh 75% Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
CHINESE A SUPERDIVERSE AOTEAROA Lily 33 years old Plays table tennis (114,000 in Auckland while 59,280 played rugby in 2019) Does not watch, listen to and read any mainstream New Zealand media but is very active on social media Visits Beijing 2-3 times per year but has never visited Hamilton Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
PKEH MILLENIALS AND GEN Z Louise 42 Gen Z, one of 1.134 million Has a partner but does not own a property. Still paying off student debt. Living in beanpole family household Has chosen not to have children (even though more children are born to women aged over 40 than to women 20 and under) Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
THE COLLAPSE OF FERTILITY Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
15 March 2019 Self-radicalised online Move from online radicalism to terrorism Alt Right and Identitarian politics and views Part of international white supremacist terrorism (Norway, El Paso, Hanau)
ROYAL COMMISSION AND SOCIAL COHESION LOW, LOW FERTILITY COUNTRY? Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
SOCIAL COHESION 2005-06 Canadian approach adopted : Belonging (being part of a community) Inclusion (equity of opportunities and outcomes) Participation (involvement in social/community activities) Recognition (valuing diversity and respecting difference) Legitimacy (confidence and trust in public institutions) Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
A DECLINE IN TRUST AND SOCIETAL PESSIMISM 20.7 Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
ONLINE ANGER AND MIS/DISINFORMATION LOW, LOW FERTILITY COUNTRY? Sophisticated online presence Influence public debate and understanding and education? Amplification of aggressive, angry voices Radicalisation potential? Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
Islamophobia Significant increase (hate speech/hate crimes) post 9/11, and then post-2017 and 2019, directed at Muslims Global/local struggle Replacement arguments
New Wave of Antisemitism The rise and rise of antisemitism in anti- vax/mandate/government politics since 2019 Billy Te Kahika s podcast June 2020
HE WHENUA TAURIKURA A LAND OF PEACE LOW, LOW FERTILITY COUNTRY? Mission Statement He Whenua Taurikura contributes to an Aotearoa where everyone is safe in our diverse identities, by producing and coordinating research into countering and preventing terrorism and violent extremism, in order to contribute to social cohesion. Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
IN THE NEXT DECADE Old-dominant population profile, with more 65+ than 0-14 year olds Large numbers exiting the workforce and fewer entering Much more diverse population, households and workforce Immigration is critical to population growth and labour/talent supply Population stagnation or decline will occur in more and more regions Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
HOW WILL JUSTICES OF THE PEACE RESPOND How will community organisations and services such as JPs responding to these demographic changes? What will Aotearoa/New Zealand look like in the 2030s?? What will be the key demographic issues that need to be considered? What does it mean to be a New Zealander in the 21st century? How should we change? Massey University | massey.ac.nz | 0800 MASSEY
