Modelling Sustainability Challenges and Solutions for the 2030 Agenda
International Commitments
•
June 2015: Sendai Framework for Disaster
Risk Reduction 2015-2030
•
July 2015: 3rd International Conference on
Financing for Development adopted the Addis
Ababa Action Agenda
•
September 2015: “Transforming our world:
the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development”.
•
December 2015: Paris Agreement.
The 2030 Agenda
The 2030 Agenda SDGs
The 2030
Agenda
SDGs &
Science
The challenges before the 2030
Agenda
Heightened complexity
•
The challenge:
–
How to decide when linkages point in different
directions
–
Need a way of measuring impacts to be able
to
compensate the trade-offs and to complement with
additional policy options
•
Global models
–
Give a sense of global consistency
–
Provide a reference for national policies
–
But cannot directly guide national policies
Modelling for sustainability:
from global to national
CLIMATE MODELS:
EMISSIONS & CLIMATE
GLOBAL
IAM
GLOBAL
CGE or EW
Energy
Systems
models
CGE global
trade
models
National Energy
Systems models
National CGE
or EW models
Integrated Assessment
Climate, Land, Energy,
Water, Systems
CLEWS
Microsimulation
Geo-Spatial
Electrification
Global
Damage cost
Wellbeing
Global Physical
Feasibility
Sustainability
Investments
National
Sustainable
Development
Policies
Global models insights
A sample
–
Rapid growth in developing countries
and poverty eradication are both
consistent with sustainability.
–
Energy for all is compatible with
sustainable paths, with only marginal
increase in emissions.
–
Tapping on biofuels might reduce
emissions but decreases biodiversity.
–
Preventing climate change, enhancing
biodiversity, and controlling air pollution
are all achievable goals.
–
Nuclear energy can contribute but is not
a must for arriving to a sustainable
development path.
National policies
A sample
•
Poverty eradication
•
Reduced inequality
•
Higher living
standards
•
Food security
•
Protecting the
environment
•
Universal access to
electricity
•
Renewable and
clean energy
•
Affordable and
reliable energy
•
Industrialisation
•
Curbing emissions
growth under
NDCs
•
Energy security
Providing
context
Genealogy of integrated assessment modelling
•
Food, energy and water
systems are highly
interlinked
•
O
f
t
e
n
r
e
f
e
r
r
e
d
t
o
b
y
t
h
e
t
e
r
m
n
e
x
u
s
•
Part of broader
development challenge as
reflected in Agenda 2030
for Sustainable
Development
The food-energy-water nexus
Sustainable development
National Development Policies
An analytical framework and model
C
l
i
m
a
t
e
GHG
emissions
Precipitation,
temperature
CLEWS
Economy-
wide
Socio-
economic
impact
Energy
Systems
Integrated
Assessment
System
Modelling
Modelling Tools
Approach
–
Sound, adapted & based on
NATIONAL development
PRIORITIES
–
A suite of models. No single model
can cover all relevant issues
–
Accessible, unrestrained from
proprietary specification (open
source)
–
User-friendly, communication
effective
–
Tapping on research & the
knowledge-creation communities
–
Responding to demands for
CAPACITY BUILDING
Addressing complexity
Integrated
Assessment
System
Electricity
for All
BUILDING ANALYTICAL CAPACITY FOR
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICIES
2015-2017
•
Bolivia
•
Costa Rica
•
Ghana
•
Kyrgyzstan
•
Mongolia
•
Nicaragua
•
Paraguay
•
Uganda
2005-2015
20 countries
WATER
MODELLING
Data use
Scenarios
Interpreting
INTEGRATED
MODELLING
CLEWS
Data use
Scenario
Interpreting
- Insights
from
modeling
- Informing
policy
debate
- Outreach,
disseminate
P
U
B
L
I
C
A
T
I
O
N
S
PROJECT SCHEDULE OF ACTIVITIES: CLEWS
W
O
R
K
A
T
D
I
S
T
A
N
C
E
W
O
R
K
A
T
D
I
S
T
A
N
C
E
ENERGY
MODELLING
Data use
Scenario
Interpreting
WORKSHOP 4
10 hours
W
O
R
K
A
T
D
I
S
T
A
N
C
E
S
C
O
P
I
N
G
D
A
T
A
G
A
T
H
E
R
I
N
G
ITERACTIVE MODEL BUILDING
2
nd
year
WORKSHOP I
40 hrs./each
WORKSHOP 2
40 hrs./each
WORKSHOP 3
40 hrs./each
1st year
AWARNESS OF MODELLING MECHANICS, POWER AND LIMITATIONS
BUILDING INSTITUTIONS TO INFORM SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICIES
MODELS
ECONOMY
-WIDE
MICRO-
SIMU-
LATION
SECTOR
MODELS
MODELS
ENERGY
INTEGRATE
D
ASSESS-
MENT
SECTOR
MODELS
THANK YOU
Heightened complexity in decision-making, global vs. national policy alignment, and sustainable development models are key aspects of addressing the challenges in meeting the 2030 Agenda. Integrated assessment modelling, food-energy-water nexus, and the CLEWS framework play vital roles in guiding policies towards sustainable development.
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Presentation Transcript
The 2030 Agenda SDGs & Science
Heightened complexity The challenge: How to decide when linkages point in different directions Need a way of measuring impacts to be able to compensate the trade-offs and to complement with additional policy options Global models Give a sense of global consistency Provide a reference for national policies But cannot directly guide national policies
Modelling for sustainability: from global to national Energy Systems models CGE global trade models Global Physical Feasibility Sustainability Investments Global Damage cost Wellbeing GLOBAL IAM GLOBAL CGE or EW National Sustainable Development Policies CLIMATE MODELS: EMISSIONS & CLIMATE Geo-Spatial Electrification National Energy Systems models Integrated Assessment Climate, Land, Energy, Water, Systems CLEWS National CGE or EW models Microsimulation
Sustainable development The food-energy-water nexus National Development Policies Food Food, energy and water systems are highly interlinked Often referred to by the term nexus Part of broader development challenge as reflected in Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development National Sustaina ble Develop ment Policies Energy Water
CLEWS An analytical framework and model Energy Model Energy for fertilizer production Energy required for field preparation and harvest Biomass for biofuel production and other energy uses Energy for water processing and treatment GHG emissions Energy for water pumping Energy for desalination Water available for hydropower Water for power plant cooling Water for (bio-)fuel processing Climate Water Model Land-use Model Precipitation, temperature Water for biofuel crops (rain -fed and irrigated) Water needs for food, feed and fibre crops (rain-fed and irrigated)
Addressing complexity Modelling Tools Approach Sound, adapted & based on NATIONAL development PRIORITIES Socio- economic impact A suite of models. No single model can cover all relevant issues Economy- wide Accessible, unrestrained from proprietary specification (open source) Integrated Assessment System Modelling System User-friendly, communication effective Integrated Assessment Energy Systems Tapping on research & the knowledge-creation communities Electricity for All Responding to demands for CAPACITY BUILDING
BUILDING ANALYTICAL CAPACITY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICIES 2005-2015 20 countries 2015-2017 Bolivia Costa Rica Ghana Kyrgyzstan Mongolia Nicaragua Paraguay Uganda
PROJECT SCHEDULE OF ACTIVITIES: CLEWS WORKSHOP I 40 hrs./each WORKSHOP 4 10 hours WORKSHOP 2 40 hrs./each WORKSHOP 3 40 hrs./each D A T A S C O P I N G P U B L I C A T I O N S W O R K W O R K W O R K - Insights from modeling INTEGRATED MODELLING CLEWS WATER MODELLING ENERGY MODELLING A T A T G A T H E R I N G A T - Informing policy debate Data use Scenarios Interpreting Data use Scenario Interpreting Data use Scenario Interpreting D I S T A N C E D I S T A N C E D I S T A N C E - Outreach, disseminate ITERACTIVE MODEL BUILDING 1st year 2ndyear
BUILDING INSTITUTIONS TO INFORM SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICIES MODELS MODELS ECONOMY -WIDE ENERGY INTEGRATE D ASSESS- MENT MICRO- SIMU- LATION SECTOR MODELS SECTOR MODELS AWARNESS OF MODELLING MECHANICS, POWER AND LIMITATIONS
