Lowell Joint School District Bond Feasibility Survey Findings
The conducted survey by Dr. Timothy McLarney aimed to determine the feasibility of a bond measure for the Lowell Joint School District. The study focused on gathering community input to create a measure aligned with priorities, with an emphasis on education quality, crime reduction, job creation, and infrastructure maintenance. Methodology included a random sample of likely voters and various participation channels. Results show strong support for improving education quality, while the initial ballot test proposed a bond for school upgrades and modernization.
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CONDUCTED FOR THE LOWELL JOINT SCHOOL DISTRICT BOND FEASIBILITY SURVEY PRESENTED BY TIMOTHY MCLARNEY PH.D. 9/23/2024
PURPOSE OF STUDY oDetermine if a bond measure is feasible oIdentify how to create a measure consistent with community priorities oGather information needed for communications & outreach 2 2
METHODOLOGY OF STUDY o How did we select voters to survey? oStratified & Clustered Random Sample of likely voters (2024) using age, gender, partisanship, household party type, and sub- geographies oEnsures balanced, representative sample of likely voters o How did we recruit participation? oPersonalized email, text, and telephone calls oPINs to restrict access and ensure one complete per respondent o How were voters able to share their opinions? oSecure, PIN-protected website that scales to the device oTelephone (land line or mobile) oEnglish & Spanish o What was the sample size? o400 completed interviews oOverall margin of error of 4.9% @ 95% level of confidence 3 3
IMPORTANCE OF ISSUES Extremely important Very important 84% 52.1 31.8 Improving the quality of education in local public schools 55.0 28.1 83% Reducing crime and gang activity 33.6 41.2 75% Creating jobs and improving the local economy 75% 30.9 43.8 Maintaining local streets and roads 66% 30.9 35.6 Repairing and upgrading aging school facilities 32.2 33.9 66% Preventing local tax increases 25.1 30.2 Reducing traffic congestion 55% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Respondents 4 4
INITIAL BALLOT TEST In order to: o Provide safe, modern elementary and intermediate schools o Replace deteriorating portables with permanent classrooms o Improve disabled student access o And repair, construct, and improve classrooms, science labs, and school facilities to support student achievement and college/career readiness in math, science, technology, arts, and engineering Shall Lowell Joint School District s measure authorizing 54 million dollars in bonds at legal rates be adopted, levying approximately 30 dollars per 100,000 dollars assessed value (7 million dollars annually) while bonds are outstanding, with citizen oversight, independent audits, and all money locally- controlled? 5 5
INITIAL BALLOT TEST Prefer not to answer 1.1 Not sure 10.9 Definitely yes 34.7 Definitely no 15.6 25% 63% Probably no 9.4 Probably yes 28.3 6 6
TAX THRESHOLD Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Not sure 25.1 28.2 15.3 24.3 7.2 40% 53% $30 per $100K 38% 55% 29.5 25.8 16.0 22.4 6.2 $24 per $100K 34% 37.5 24.0 12.3 21.2 5.0 $19 per $100K 62% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Respondents 7 7
SUPPORT IF ANNUAL TOTAL IS $142 OR $90 FOR TYPICAL OWNER 100 3.5 5.1 Prefer not to answer 90 20.3 21.9 Not sure 80 10.8 70 Definitely no 13.0 % Respondents 60 Probably no 24.1 50 23.3 Probably yes 40 4.5 30 Definitely yes 20 36.1 36.1 Definitely yes @ $142 (Q5) 10 0 $142 per year $90 per year Annual Cost For Typical Homeowner 8 8
PROJECTS & IMPROVEMENTS Strongly favor Somewhat favor Provide classrooms, facilities, tech needed to support high quality instruction in math, science, engineering, tech 60.0 25.3 58.1 24.8 Improve access for students with disabilities Repair or replace deteriorating roofs, plumbing, heating, ventilation, gas lines, sewer lines, electrical systems where needed Improve student safety, campus security systems incl fencing, cameras, emergency communications systems, smoke detectors, fire alarms, sprinklers Create modern, multi-use classrooms to support hands-on science instruction, learning-by-doing 59.1 23.8 60.5 22.0 55.0 27.1 Remove hazardous materials like asbestos, lead pipes from older school sites, where encountered 64.7 17.3 Upgrade older schools and facilities so they meet current health codes, building safety codes 60.0 21.8 Keep computer systems and instructional technology up-to-date 54.6 27.1 Provide classrooms, facilities needed to support high quality instruction in music, visual, performing arts Replace aging portable classrooms that are expensive to repair, maintain with modern, permanent classrooms that meet today s academic standards Construct a Performing Arts Center at the Junior High School that will serve all students in district 54.0 23.4 49.3 26.2 33.4 32.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Respondents 9 9
POSITIVE ARGUMENTS Very convincing Somewhat convincing Measure requires transparent system of accountability, project list describing how money will be used, Citizens' Oversight Committee, public disclosure of how all funds are spent If we want kids to succeed in HS, college, careers, must be skilled in today s tech, have solid background in science, math, engineering, tech; measure will make this possible Student safety, security has become a top priority for schools around nation; bond will provide funding for increased safety, security that will protect students, staff in an emergency Even with no school-age children, supporting school bond is a wise investment; good schools improve quality of life in community and protect value of homes Some schools have modern classrooms, labs, facilities, most don t; measure will ensure ALL students have equal access to classrooms, labs, facilities they need to succeed 51.4 27.9 46.9 32.2 45.4 33.7 45.0 33.9 40.9 37.8 All money raised by measure will stay local to support students; it can t be taken away by State or used for other purposes 52.9 25.7 Most schools built so long ago they aren t accessible for students with disabilities, have asbestos, lead pipes, infrastructure failing, gas leaks, water leaks, sewage backups; we need to fix these problems There are 38 portable classrooms 25+ yrs old falling apart; some have structural damage, water leaks; expensive to keep repairing; need bond to replace portables with modern, permanent classrooms Students deserve to have same opportunities as others in region; by fixing older schools, upgrading classrooms, tech, measure will provide students with classrooms, tech to succeed 48.6 29.6 48.5 29.7 42.5 33.3 By law, no money from this measure can be used for administrators salaries or benefits 48.2 24.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Respondents 10 10
INTERIM BALLOT TEST Prefer not to answer 1.1 Not sure 6.0 Definitely no 17.2 Definitely yes 35.4 28% 65% Probably no 10.9 Probably yes 29.4 11 11
NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS Very convincing Somewhat convincing Voters just approved $48M bond in 2018 to fix schools that property owners will be paying off for next 30 yrs; now they want more money? That s not fair to taxpayers 48.2 31.2 Residents already paying too many taxes, state, county, school bonds, other taxes; also a lot of new tax proposals on ballot this Nov; enough is enough; we can t afford to keep raising taxes 45.5 32.4 Local businesses, residents hit hard by pandemic, now facing high gas prices, runaway inflation; many struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise taxes 44.6 31.8 Community is already an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, those on fixed incomes; passing bond will make it even less affordable 42.3 31.8 We can t trust the District with this tax; they will mismanage the money 26.1 30.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Respondents 12 12
FINAL BALLOT TEST Prefer not to answer 1.1 Not sure 6.4 Definitely yes 29.4 Definitely no 20.9 35% 57% Probably no 14.4 Probably yes 27.8 13 13
KEY CONCLUSIONS Does a bond appear to be feasible for a 2024 ballot? Yes, but it will require effective outreach & engagement. Positive Signs oVoters rank improving the quality of education in local schools as the most important issues facing the community oSolid natural support for bond measure (63%) oPopular projects and improvements oStrong positive arguments oAll ballot tests meet or exceed 55%, even after opposition arguments Challenges oTax rate sensitivity oReceptiveness to potential opposition arguments (-7%) oElectoral climate: Hyper-partisanship, overlapping measures, statewide initiatives. 14 14
OBSERVATIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS o Snapshot in time, not a crystal ball o Tax Rate: Keep affordable o Project Priorities: STEM, ADA, Repairs to older facilities/bring them up to code, safety & security, hazardous materials o District Communications: Expand the conversation with the community to raise awareness of facility needs, how they connect to education quality/opportunities, and build consensus on a bond proposal. o Independent Campaign: Need to have solid independent campaign to navigate through the election cycle, communicate key messages, turn out supporters, and weather uncertainties. 15 15
