Integrating Physical and Social Science for Effective Storm Surge Communication
March 7, 2013
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Co-Lead by NHC Director Rick Knabb & Jennifer Sprague
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Members:
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NHC: Edward Rappaport, Jamie Rhome & Robbie Berg
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NWS WFOs: Lance Wood (WFO Texas), Hendricus Lofus
(WFO CT)
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FEMA: Matthew Green (FEMA Liaison at NHC)
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State/Local Emergency Managers: Chuck Lanza (FL), Mike
Sprayberry (NC), Christopher Moore (TX),
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Social Scientist: Hugh Gladwin
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Media: Vacant
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Private Sector: Karen Townsend (HURREVAC)
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Phase 4 (TC): Inundation graphic, Storm Surge
watch/warning
ERG: prototype evaluations via interviews, focus
groups, public surveys
NWS/HFIP
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2013-2015 season
Inundation graphic, storm surge watch/warning
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Inundation graphic, storm surge watch/warning
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Integrating new
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Results show people do not understand surge or
its risk, and want some type of further information
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Uses EM interviews, focus groups, online survey
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Focuses on broadcast meteorologists’ perceived
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new/additional storm surge information
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EMs desire a locally relevant inundation graphic
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EMs prefer a range of scenarios versus probability
plots
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EMs desire surge predictions earlier (i.e., 72 hrs or
more before TC landfall)
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Modeling enhancement needed
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NHC hired GIS expert to develop inundation graphic
prototypes
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Social scientists are evaluating prototypes
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Interviews, focus groups, surveys of EMs and
public
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Prototypes included in broadcast met survey from
partner needs project
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Public survey imminent
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Small project to apply and evaluate cartographic
techniques to inundation graphics
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Advice on appearance and color scheme
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Survey of coastal residents
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Eye-tracking analysis of prototype graphics
provided by NHC
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Results showed preference for an inundation graphic
with a range of colors and a scale of descriptive
words (low, med, hi, extreme)
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CSC leading effort via IDIQ contract process
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Develop a marketing plan for NHC and WFO
meteorologists to help EMs and broadcast mets
accurately explain storm surge risk to their audiences
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Understand how information flows between
NHC/WFOs and EMs and broadcast
meteorologists, and their target audiences, and
the roles of each in risk communication
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Develop marketing plan for NWS and its
downstream audiences
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Physical & Social Science Integration
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Holistic Approach
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Wide Collaboration Across NOAA
The integration of physical and social sciences is crucial for effectively communicating complex storm surge threats. Collaborative efforts involve various stakeholders like the National Weather Service, NOAA, emergency managers, social scientists, media, and private sector representatives. Strategies include assessing public and partner needs, conducting interviews, surveys, and prototyping products to enhance understanding and response to storm surges.
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Presentation Transcript
Supporting Physical and Social Science Integration: Storm Surge Jennifer Sprague National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration March 7, 2013 1
The Communication Quandary Storm Surge The threat is complex and difficult to communicate! 2
HFIP Socio-Economic Working Group HFIP Socio-Economic Working Group Co-Lead by NHC Director Rick Knabb & Jennifer Sprague Members: NHC: Edward Rappaport, Jamie Rhome & Robbie Berg NWS WFOs: Lance Wood (WFO Texas), Hendricus Lofus (WFO CT) FEMA: Matthew Green (FEMA Liaison at NHC) State/Local Emergency Managers: Chuck Lanza (FL), Mike Sprayberry (NC), Christopher Moore (TX), Social Scientist: Hugh Gladwin Media: Vacant Private Sector: Karen Townsend (HURREVAC) 3
Surge Social Science Strategy Assess Public Need Phase 1 (TC) and Phase 2 (ET) Lazo & Morrow: interviews, focus groups, public surveys Assess Partner Needs Phase 3 Lazo & Morrow: media web interviews and online survey Decision Support for EMs WxEM Tropical use case in NC RENCI, UNC-CH, ECU: multiple methods to assess EMs NOS/CSP & NWS/OST NOS/CSP CSDL Product Prototyping and Evaluation Phase 4 (TC): Inundation graphic, Storm Surge watch/warning ERG: prototype evaluations via interviews, focus groups, public surveys Irene Service Assessment NWS/HFIP Advisory Committee UCAR Community Experimental Products 2013-2015 season Inundation graphic, storm surge watch/warning NWS/NCEP Marketing and Outreach Integrating new products NOS/CSC Operational Products 2014-2016 season Inundation graphic, storm surge watch/warning NWS/NCEP
Assessing Current Storm Surge Information People s Understanding of Hazard & Partner Needs Phase 1: Tropical Results show people do not understand surge or its risk, and want some type of further information Phase 2: Extratropical Uses EM interviews, focus groups, online survey Phase 3: Partner needs Focuses on broadcast meteorologists perceived needs, constraints, and possibilities for new/additional storm surge information
WxEM: Decision Support for Emergency Managers (EMs) EMs desire a locally relevant inundation graphic EMs prefer a range of scenarios versus probability plots EMs desire surge predictions earlier (i.e., 72 hrs or more before TC landfall) Modeling enhancement needed
Product Prototyping & Evaluation NHC hired GIS expert to develop inundation graphic prototypes Social scientists are evaluating prototypes Interviews, focus groups, surveys of EMs and public Prototypes included in broadcast met survey from partner needs project Public survey imminent
Cartographic of Inundation Graphics Small project to apply and evaluate cartographic techniques to inundation graphics Advice on appearance and color scheme Survey of coastal residents Eye-tracking analysis of prototype graphics provided by NHC Results showed preference for an inundation graphic with a range of colors and a scale of descriptive words (low, med, hi, extreme)
FY12 Storm Surge Marketing Plan CSC leading effort via IDIQ contract process Develop a marketing plan for NHC and WFO meteorologists to help EMs and broadcast mets accurately explain storm surge risk to their audiences Understand how information flows between NHC/WFOs and EMs and broadcast meteorologists, and their target audiences, and the roles of each in risk communication Develop marketing plan for NWS and its downstream audiences
Success Story Physical & Social Science Integration Holistic Approach Wide Collaboration Across NOAA
