Insights into the 2020 Election: Trends, Polls, and Swing States
The guide delves into various aspects influencing the 2020 election, including the impact of COVID-19 on campaigning strategies, demographic shifts in key swing states, national polls favoring Biden, and the crucial swing states like PA, WI, NC, and GA. Key statistics, electoral college votes, and the need for additional swing state victories are outlined, providing a comprehensive view of the upcoming election.
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2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections October 2020 GCSAA Government Affairs
Keys to the 2020 presidential election President Trump s handling of COVID-19 1 Trump planned to campaign on a booming economy, but the pandemic has led to record unemployment The Biden campaign will devote a lot of money on ads accusing President Trump of inaction Shifting demographics in key states 2 The GOP electorate is more older and white, while the voting population grows younger and more diverse The growing Hispanic population in key swing states such as Arizona and Florida could determine the election Suburban districts 3 Trump s support in suburban districts has decreased since his inauguration Democrats performance in the suburbs was a key reason for their success in the 2018 midterms Campaigning in a pandemic 4 Trump has restarted his large campaign rallies, while Biden has opted for smaller, less frequent events Democrats have shifted to digital and phone banking campaigns, while Republicans have largely maintained door-knocking GOTV efforts S O U R C E US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox, FiveThirtyEight, Washington Post. Z A C H A R Y G O L D S T I E N 5/26/20 2
Biden consistently polls ahead of Trump in national polls and is likely to win the popular vote Head Head- -to AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS to- -head general election polls head general election polls AS OF SEPTEMBER 29, 2020 Biden Trump Other Fox News 46 51 3 (September 7-10, 2020) Monmouth University (September 24-27, 2020) 44 50 6 ABC/Washington Post (September 21-14, 2020) 41 47 10 NBC/WSJ 43 51 6 (September 13-16, 2020) S O U R C E Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, Monmouth University. 9/29/20 3
Key swing states will decide the election PA 20 WI 10 NC 15 GA 16 Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189 2016 election outcome MI 16 MN 10 FL 29 AZ 11 Solid/Likely Biden: 212 Solid/Likely Trump: 125 2020 Cook Ratings Lean Democrat: 78 Lean Democrat: 78 Lean Republican: 38 Lean Republican: 38 Toss Up: 85 Toss Up: 85 15 18 11 16 38 16 4 29 16 10 6 16 6 ME-02: 1 NE-02: 1 EC votes Biden needs in addition to Solid/Likely: 58 EC votes Trump needs in addition to Solid/Likely: 145 S O U R C E National Journal; Cook Political Report A L I C E J O H N S O N 9/28/20 4
Biden currently leads polling in most swing states Head Head- -to to- -head general election polls by state head general election polls by state Biden Trump Other AS OF SEPTEMBER 29, 2020 Wisconsin Lean D 5.7 50.5 43.8 Pennsylvania Lean D 5.6 49.9 44.5 Michigan Lean D 7.1 49.9 43.0 Arizona Lean D 6.6 48.5 44.9 Florida Toss Up 6 47.9 46.1 North Carolina Toss Up 5.9 47.7 46.4 Georgia Toss Up 7 45.9 47.1 S O U R C E FiveThirtyEight, The Cook Political Report. A S H L E Y T H I E M E 9/29/20 5
How does a recession impact a presidents reelection bid? 6 Incumbents without a recession within two years of reelection bid Presidents since 1912 have faced a recession within 2 years before their reelection bid. Only 1 has won reelection. YEAR PRESIDENT WIN REELECTION? 1916 Wilson YES 1936 FDR YES Incumbents with a recession within two years of reelection bid 1940 FDR YES 1944 FDR YES YEAR PRESIDENT WIN REELECTION? 1948 Truman YES 1912 Taft NO 1956 Eisenhower YES YES 1924 Coolidge 1964 Johnson YES 1972 Nixon 1932 Hoover NO YES 1984 Reagan YES NO 1976 Ford 1996 Clinton YES NO 1980 Carter 2004 W. Bush YES NO 1992 H.W. Bush 2012 Obama YES S O U R C E CNN, New York Times A L I C E J O H N S O N 2/2/20 6
The Biden campaign vastly outraised the Trump campaign in August Principal campaign committee fundraising IN MILLIONS USD AS OF AUGUST 31, 2020 Trump Receipts Biden Receipts Trump Cash on Hand Biden Cash on Hand $212 $181 $121 $121 $113 $108 $108 $99 $98 $94 $93 $109 $82 $72 $63 $62 $57 $55 $50 $47 $44 $37 $25 $18 $17 $14 $14 $9 $6 January February March April May June July August S O U R C E FEC 9/29/20 7
Trump has spent more than double the amount that Biden s campaign has on Facebook spending Donald Trump FACEBOOK LIKES 29.2 million Joe Biden FACEBOOK LIKES 2.7 million Spending between Jan. 5, 2019 and Sept. 19, 2020 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Facebook spending Google spending TWITTER FOLLOWERS 86.3 million TWITTER FOLLOWERS 9.7 million INSTAGRAM FOLLOWERS 22 million INSTAGRAM FOLLOWERS 4.1 million Targeted Facebook spending by demographic 72M Male Female Unknown 60.4% 38.5% Biden 48.4M 49.0% 50.0% Trump 113.4 M 13-24 25-44 45-64 65+ 62.8M 35.4% 37.0% 22.3% Biden 25.0% 44.2% 26.0% Trump Donald Trump Joe Biden S O U R C E National Journal Research, Bully Pulpit. 9/29/20 8
2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020 congressional elections. October 2020 GCSAA Government Affairs
Keys to the 2020 Senate election State of play To gain majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to gain four seats or three seats and the presidency to break a 50-50 partisan tie Out of the 35 seats up for reelection, 12 are currently held by Democrats and 23 are currently held by Republicans Five Republican seats are rated as Toss Up by The Cook Political Report (Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina) 1 Compounding effect of multiple competitive races 2 In Arizona, the race between incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has become increasingly competitive and Arizona s role as a swing state in the presidential election will bring a slew of spending and effort to increase turnout for both elections In North Carolina, the 2020 Senate, gubernatorial, and presidential race are all competitive Republicans mostly on defense 3 The 2020 Senate election map put Senate Republicans on defense for this election Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), currently rated as Lean R, and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), currently rated as Lean D, seem to be the only opportunity for Republicans to increase their majority in the Senate S O U R C E 270towin, The Cook Political Report, Politico. A S H L E Y T H I E M E 09/29/20 10
Keys to the 2020 House election State of play 1 To win the majority in the House, Republicans must pick up 18 seats Out of the 28 seats rated as Toss Ups by The Cook Political Report, 16 belong to incumbent Democrats while 12 belong to incumbent Republicans Out of the 89 seats rated as competitive, 43 belong to Democrats and 46 belong to Republicans Democrats strong position in the House 2 Heading into the 2020 election, about three times as many Republicans (27) will not seeking reelection as Democrats (10) Democrats hold a wide lead in most generic ballot polls and hold a strong advantage due to strong fundraising efforts at the candidate level and weak recruitment efforts for House Republicans S O U R C E 270towin, The Cook Political Report, Politico. A S H L E Y T H I E M E 09/29/20 11
Senators up for re-election In states won by the opposing party s 2016 presidential candidate Democrats Doug Jones (AL) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Chris Coons (DE) Cory Booker (NJ) Dick Durbin (IL) Tom Udall (NM)* Democratic Senator Republican Senator Ed Markey (MA) Jeff Merkley (OR) Gary Peters (MI) Jack Reed (RI) Tina Smith (MN) Mark Warner (VA) Clinton Victory Trump Victory Maine Michigan AK ME Susan Collins (R) won in 2014 by 37.0% Gary Peters (D) won in 2014 by 13.3% VT NH Cory Gardner (CO) Mitch McConnell (KY) Thom Tillis (NC) Shelley Moore Capito (WV) Republicans Dan Sullivan (AK) Jim Risch (ID) Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Lamar Alexander (TN)* WA ID MT ND MN IL WI MI NY RI MA OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE David Perdue (GA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Jim Inhofe (OK) Mike Enzi (WY)* Kelly Loeffler (GA) Susan Collins (ME) Mike Rounds (SD) Martha McSally (AZ) Joni Ernst (IA) Steve Daines (MT) Lindsey Graham (SC) AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC OK LA MS AL GA Colorado Tom Cotton (AR) Pat Roberts (KS)* Ben Sasse (NE) John Cornyn (TX) Cory Gardner (R) won in 2014 by 1.9% TX FL Alabama Doug Jones (D) won in a 2017 special election by 1.5% HI *Senators not seeking reelection in 2020 S O U R C E US Senate. 2/2/20 12
Republicans hold 8 out of 10 Senate seats most likely to flip party control Hotline s 2020 Senate power rankings Hotline s 2020 Senate power rankings H O T L I N E S P O W E R R A N K I N G S IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL 1. Alabama: Incumbent: Doug Jones (D) Challenger: Former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) Seat held by a Republican Outline indicates it is in top five states most likely to flip Seat held by a Democrat 2. Colorado: Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R) Challenger: Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 5 7 3. Arizona: Incumbent: Martha McSally (R) Challenger: Veteran & retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) 9 6 2 4. North Carolina: Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R) Challenger: Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) 4 3 10 5. Maine: Incumbent: Susan Collins (R) Challenger: State House Speaker Sara Gideon (D) 1 8 Iowa Joni Ernst (R) Montana Steve Daines (R) Georgia Kelly Loeffler (R) Georgia David Perdue (R) Michigan Gary Peters (D) 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. South Carolina Lindsey Graham (R) S O U R C E US Senate. 2/2/20 13
Split ticket voting is on the decline in recent years Percent of House districts won by the opposite party for president DATA FROM THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION S 2019 VITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS Possible reasons for the decrease: Increased political polarization Self-sorting of the population The advantages of incumbency 44.1% 43.7% 33.3% 34.0% 29.9% 32.8% 32.0% 25.2% 28.5% 25.1% 26.1% 21.3% 24.1% 18.9% 19.8% 19.3% 19.1% 14.1% 14.6% 11.8% 14.1% 10.5% 13.6% 11.2% 8.0% 6.7% 3.4% 6.0% 3.2% 1.6% '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 '20 '24 '28 '32 '36 '40 '44 '48 '52 '56 '60 '64 '68 '72 '76 '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 S O U R C E US Senate. 2/2/20 14
Democrats hold 14 of the 20 most likely House seats to flip, but will likely retain their majority H O T L I N E S P O W E R R A N K I N G S Hotline s 2020 House power rankings Hotline s 2020 House power rankings TX-23: Rep. Will Hurd (R)* OK-5: Rep. Kendra Horn (D) SC-1: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D) NM-2: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D) NY-22: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) GA-7: Rep. Rob Woodall (R)* IA-1: Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) GA-6: Rep. Lucy McBath (D) MN-7: Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. IA-3: Rep. Cindy Axne (D) 11. ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D) 12. TX-24: Rep. Kenny Marchant (R)* 13. NY-11: Rep. Max Rose (D) 14. CA-21: Rep. T.J. Cox (D) 15. PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) 16. TX-7: Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) 17. NJ-3: Rep. Andy Kim (D) 18. IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis (R) 19. CA-48: Rep. Harley Rouda (D) 20. TX-22: Rep. Pete Olson (R)* IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL Seat held by a Republican Seat held by a Democrat * Incumbent not seeking reelection in 2020 S O U R C E National Journal. 7/27/20 15
National GOP committees have raised about $195 million more than their Democratic counterparts Total receipts by national party PACs AS OF AUGUST 31, 2020 Democratic PAC Republican PAC 5 5 RNC $533M DNC $282M 3 3 2 2 DCCC $249M NRCC $191M NRSC $168M DSCC $165M Total Dem $696M Total GOP $891M S O U R C E FEC 9/29/20 16
2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020 gubernatorial elections. October 2020 GCSAA Government Affairs
Keys to 2020 gubernatorial races Few possibilities for party flips 1 Currently, Democrats hold 24 governorships while Republicans hold 26 In the 2020 elections, seven GOP seats are up for election while four Democratic seats are up for election However, only two seats are likely to possibly flip parties (NC-Cooper (D) and MT-Open (D)) High visibility during COVID-19 outbreak could favor incumbents 2 State response has been in the spotlight during the COVID-19 outbreak, leading to coverage of governors and more exposure to the public In multiple public polls, governors have a higher approval rating than President Trump on their handling of the coronavirus Governorships do not always align with partisanship for other offices Presidential and Senate elections do not necessarily indicate which party will win the governor seat in a state Although President Trump won Montana by 20 points in 2016, Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) won his election although it was a slimmer margin Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) (up for reelection in 2022) has won two consecutive gubernatorial elections despite Maryland electing two Democratic senators and Democrats winning the state in presidential elections since 1992 3 S O U R C E The Cook Political Report, 270towin. 12/13/19 18
There are only two open seats up for election in 2020 2020 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status Dem incumbent (3) Dem open (1) GOP incumbent (6) GOP open (1) AK ME VT NH WA ID MT ND MN IL WI MI NY RI MA OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC OK LA MS AL GA HI TX FL S O U R C E The Cook Political Report 12/13/19 19
Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) has raised over $19 million Total receipts in 2020 governor races by state (in millions of dollars) AS OF MOST RECENT FILING PERIOD DE IN MO MT NH NC ND UT VT WA WV $19.3 $7.0 $6.9 $6.7 $4.5 $4.0 $2.7 $2.4 $1.9 $1.5 $1.1 $1.0 $0.7 $1.0 $0.7 $0.5 $0.6 $0.5 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 *Denotes incumbent Displays receipts for front-runners S O U R C E Indiana Election Division, Missouri Ethics Commission, CERS Montana, North Carolina State Board of Elections, North Dakota Secretary of State, Utah Disclosures, Vermont Elections Divisions Campaign Finance, Washington Public Disclosure Commission, West Virginia Secretary of State. A S H L E Y T H I E M E 9/29/20 20
