Insights into SNP Voter Behavior in Scottish Elections
Explore the dynamics of SNP voter behavior in Scottish elections through the analysis of switchers and stayers. Discover how switchers differ in their attitudes towards independence, party trust, policy areas, and leader evaluations compared to stayers. Gain insights into the key issues that drive voting decisions and the nuances between these two voter groups.
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Understanding the SNP Voter Evidence from the Scottish Election Study Prof. Ailsa Henderson - Uni. of Edinburgh Prof. Christopher Carman - Uni. of Glasgow Dr. Fraser McMillan - Uni. of Glasgow
SNP Voters: Switchers and Stayers* *We asked our respondents how they voted in GE19 and SP21 (constituency OR region), for those who said they voted SNP in any of these, we asked, A lot has happened since the last Scottish and UK elections. Since then, some people who had previously voted SNP have decided to switch to support another party. Others say they will still vote SNP. Which of these best describes you? Definitely staying with the SNP; Probably staying with the SNP; Probably switching to another party; Definitely switching to another party; Don t know Switchers are softer on Independence and less tied to a political party Switchers are more likely to say Scotland is going in the wrong direction Switchers have (far) lower leader evaluations of Yousaf & tend to like Ross and Cole-Hamilton a wee bit more than do Stayers. BUT, nonetheless, they like Yousaf a bit more than Ross & Cole-Hamilton. Switchers have a slight better view of Sarwar than they do Yousaf. Data from June 2023 Scottish Opinion Monitoring Survey (Scoop), Scottish Election Study
SNP Voters: Switchers and Stayers* Switchers tend to have less trust in SNP to deal with key policy areas than Stayers, but they have not completely fallen out of love w/ SNP. Switchers are slightly more likely to say they trust Labour on Health & Education, but do not show a significant difference on Economy, Law & Order and Tackling Inequalities. In terms of Issue Priorities, Switchers identify Economy (53%), Health (49%), Education (23%), Brexit (23%) & Environment (22%) as most important issues; Stayers identify Economy (50%), Independence (50%), Brexit (48%), Health (40%) & Housing (23%). Switchers are no more negative about the Bute House Agreement than are Stayers. No clear or significant demographic differences between Switchers and Stayers. (*Comparing voters who said they voted SNP in past but would be switching to some other party in the future.)
Thank you! scottishelections.ac.uk @ScotVoting
So what's going on? Top five issues by party vote intention SNP Labour Conservatives Economy 68% Health 53% Education 37% Tax 22% Crime 19% Economy 50% Constitution 48% Brexit 46% Health 41% Housing 22% Health 61% Economy 59% Education 29% Housing 21% Brexit 21%
