Global Vegetable Oils Market Trends: Demand Analysis and Strategic Planning Initiatives

Vegetable oils consumption, production, and trade are significant globally due to rising demand, health concerns, biofuel use, and environmental impacts. This study aims to estimate demand functions for food and industrial use of vegetable oils and analyze the global demand structure of edible and non-edible vegetable oils for strategic planning.

• Vegetable Oils
• Demand Analysis
• Market Trends
• Global
• Strategic Planning

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1. Global Vegetable Oils Market Trends: Demand Analysis and Strategic Planning Initiatives Yasutomo Kojima Joe Parcell Jewelwayne Cain Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Missouri-Columbia

2. Introduction Vegetable oils consumption, production and trade have become one of the global topics of interest due to several factors: (i) rising global demand for vegetable oils, especially in emerging economies (ii) health problems related to trans fats (trans fatty acids: TFA) (iii) increasing use of vegetable oils as biofuels feedstock along with crude oil price surge (iv) international concerns over the environmental impacts of palm logging In these circumstances, in order to understand global vegetable oils market trends, it has become essentially important to analyze global demand for vegetable oils from the aspects of food use and industrial use, and to clarify the demand structure of edible and non-edible vegetable oils.

3. The Objective of This Study The objective of this paper is to estimate demand function of vegetable oils for food use and industrial use with cross-country panel data of 156 countries to investigate global demand structure of edible and non-edible vegetable oils to think about strategic planning initiatives

4. Previous Research (1) Empirical analysis of food, biofuel and energy markets. There are mainly three types of approaches, such as 1) Theoretical models (Gardner 2007; de Gorter and Just 2008; de Gorter and Just 2009) 2) Cointegration analyses (Yu et al. 2006; Hameed and Arshad 2008; Peri and Baldi 2010) 3) Partial and general equilibrium (CGE) models (Arnt et al. 2008, Kancs and Wohlgemuch 2008) 4) Theoretical and empirical analysis (Ciaian and Kancs 2011) In order to empirically analyze vegetable oils market based on those theoretical models, we need to estimate demand elasticities of vegetable oils from a global perspective. Currently, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) does not provide elasticity estimates of vegetable oils to the public.

5. Previous Research (2) From a regional perspective, Goddard and Glance (1989) analyzed demand relationships among twelve fats and oils in United States, Canada and Japan with data of per capita disappearance from 1962-86. Their study did not include rapeseed oil in the demand equation for the U.S. in their model. And also, they excluded sunflower oil in the model for three countries because some data was unavailable over some or all of the estimation period.

6. Demand Analysis We focus on global markets of four vegetable oils: soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, sunflower oil We estimate own- and cross-price elasticities in the global market and identified income elasticities by geographic regions of Africa, America, Asia, Europe and Oceania for food use and industrial use, respectively. Edible: Food 52.6% in 2009 Non-Edible: Feed, Seed, Waste, Processing and Other Utilities 47.4% in 2009 Demand elasticity estimates will be useful for future research, such as policy analysis related to the area of agriculture and energy. Soybean Complex Soybean Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Rapeseed Oil Palm Oil Sunflower Oil

7. Table 1. World Average of Edible Vegetable Oils Consumption per Capita Food supply quantity (kg/capita/yr) 1990-94 Average 2.78 29.7% 1.13 12.1% 1.37 14.6% 1.28 13.7% 0.75 0.60 0.36 0.26 0.30 0.22 0.12 0.09 0.11 9.35 100.0% 6.55 70.0% Share1995-2000 Share2000-2004 Share2005-2009 Share Average 2.89 29.5% 1.36 13.9% 1.42 14.5% 1.33 13.6% 0.74 0.55 0.37 0.25 0.32 0.24 0.12 0.10 0.11 9.80 100.0% 7.01 71.5% Average 3.28 31.7% 1.58 15.3% 1.33 12.9% 1.25 12.1% 0.70 0.52 0.41 0.28 0.32 0.25 0.19 0.11 0.11 10.33 100.0% 7.43 72.0% Average 3.37 30.4% 1.91 17.3% 1.44 13.0% 1.29 11.6% 0.66 0.56 0.43 0.32 0.32 0.28 0.27 0.12 0.11 11.09 100.0% 8.01 72.2% Soybean Oil Palm Oil Rape and Mustard Oil Sunflowerseed Oil Groundnut Oil Cottonseed Oil Olive Oil Coconut Oil Maize Germ Oil Oilcrops Oil, Other Palmkernel Oil Ricebran Oil Sesameseed Oil Vegetable Oils (Total) Four Major Vegetable Oils Source: FAOSTAT. 8.0% 6.4% 3.8% 2.8% 3.2% 2.3% 1.3% 0.9% 1.2% 7.6% 5.6% 3.8% 2.5% 3.2% 2.5% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 6.8% 5.1% 4.0% 2.7% 3.1% 2.4% 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 6.0% 5.1% 3.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 1.1% 1.0%

8. Table 2. Edible Vegetable Oils Consumption Share by Region 1990-2009 Average Consumption Consumption Share: % All Vegetable Oils Soybean Oil Rape and Mustard Oil Sunflowerseed Oil Palm Oil Palmkernel Oil Africa Eastern Africa Middle Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa Northern America Central America Caribbean South America Central Asia Eastern Asia Southern Asia South-Eastern Asia Western Asia Eastern Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe Australia and New Zealand Melanesia Micronesia Polynesia Total 1.8 0.6 2.7 0.9 4.6 13.0 2.2 0.5 7.5 0.9 18.8 17.9 5.2 4.0 5.4 2.4 5.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 0.8 0.3 2.5 0.6 0.6 31.7 3.2 1.1 15.8 0.2 17.5 10.5 3.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 2.7 4.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 0.3 0.1 1.5 0.0 0.4 9.1 1.2 1.4 0.1 5.2 3.9 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.4 7.7 1.5 4.4 9.1 1.2 6.8 30.3 2.2 12.0 10.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 4.3 1.7 0.7 0.3 12.6 0.1 2.8 0.7 6.3 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.5 37.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 4.3 America - 0.3 0.1 38.0 25.7 0.2 0.2 4.9 7.6 1.2 7.9 1.4 0.0 Asia - - 19.4 25.1 12.3 6.3 1.0 1.5 1.1 2.8 1.1 0.0 4.5 1.5 32.0 4.9 0.4 1.4 1.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 Europe Oceania - - - - 0.0 100 0.0 100 100 HHI (Degree of Concentration) 1,077 1,731 2,338 1,433 1,440 2,544 Source: Own calculations based on FAOSTAT.

9. Table 3. Change in Edible Vegetable Oils Consumption Share from 1990s to 2000s All Vegetable Oils Soybean Oil Rape and Mustard Oil Sunflowerseed Oil Palm Oil Palmkernel Oil Africa Eastern Africa Middle Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa Northern America Central America Caribbean South America Central Asia Eastern Asia Southern Asia South-Eastern Asia Western Asia Eastern Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe Australia and New Zealand Melanesia Micronesia Polynesia 0.4 0.1 -0.5 0.1 0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 -4.6 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 3.7 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -1.5 0.0 -0.7 3.0 0.8 0.9 -0.1 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -2.6 -0.3 -1.1 1.0 -2.2 0.3 1.0 0.9 4.8 -0.5 0.3 -0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 -3.5 -0.3 0.8 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 -0.9 0.7 -3.7 0.2 0.0 -2.0 America - 0.0 0.0 -4.1 2.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.2 -0.5 1.2 1.0 0.0 Asia - - 1.9 7.8 -3.8 -0.3 0.5 -1.2 -0.6 -1.2 1.3 0.0 1.7 1.0 10.8 1.1 -0.1 0.0 -1.1 -5.7 0.0 0.0 Europe Oceania - - - - 0.0 0.0 Source: Own calculations based on FAOSTAT. Note. These data show the difference in consumption share (%) from 1990 s to 2000 s.

10. Figure 1. World Average of Edible and Non-Edible Vegetable Oils Consumption per Capita Source: Own calculations based on FAOSTAT.

11. Table 4-1. Summary Statistics Edible Vegetable Oils: Average Consumption Per Capita and Real Price Non-Edible Vegetable Oils: Average Consumption Per Capita and Real Price Cross-Country Data (156 Countries) Cross-Country Data (156 Countries) 1990-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs Mean Std. Dev. 3,068 1,927 2,430 2,217 935 1,164 868 1,136 Min 0.12 0.03 0.20 0.06 154 146 208 293 Max 1990-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 934 1,049 1,447 778 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,794 Mean Std. Dev. 2,551 2,689 4,458 1,751 855 1,053 792 1,043 254 Min 0.02 0.01 0.31 0.03 154 146 208 293 80 Max 1,890 1,363 1,340 1,881 1,897 1,897 1,897 1,897 3,529 3,038 2,376 3,122 563 734 580 638 23,160 17,978 10,902 16,221 5,732 5,995 5,844 5,974 3,326 4,966 11,317 2,723 362 497 378 416 115 29,892 45,431 164,014 20,796 2,914 2,992 2,907 2,982 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 680 1990-1999 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs 739 543 536 739 742 742 742 742 Mean Std. Dev. 2,943 2,163 2,106 2,057 1,214 1,404 1,109 1,386 Min 0.12 0.11 0.20 0.06 262 146 225 362 Max 1990-1999 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 336 408 498 287 659 659 659 659 659 Mean Std. Dev. 2,160 1,796 3,035 1,334 1,041 1,175 962 1,180 171 Min 0.04 0.05 0.31 0.60 262 146 225 362 80 Max 3,674 3,143 2,322 2,743 741 932 719 829 20,612 17,978 10,597 12,908 5,732 5,995 5,467 5,974 2,961 2,909 7,865 2,132 424 542 436 454 22,453 20,706 89,889 14,069 2,721 2,992 2,907 2,982 680 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 68 2000-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs Mean Std. Dev. 3,148 1,770 2,646 2,320 756 1,009 713 976 Min 0.26 0.03 0.37 0.10 154 168 208 293 Max 2000-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 598 641 949 491 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 Mean Std. Dev. 2,770 3,257 5,205 1,995 747 982 693 964 302 Min 0.02 0.01 1.15 0.03 154 168 208 293 151 Max 1,151 820 804 1,142 1,155 1,155 1,155 1,155 3,431 2,958 2,388 3,342 295 517 398 401 23,160 15,490 10,902 16,221 3,843 4,387 5,844 4,201 3,498 5,846 12,701 2,990 267 454 298 369 109 29,892 45,431 164,014 20,796 2,914 2,940 2,866 2,891 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 610 2000-2004 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs 559 404 390 553 560 560 560 560 Mean Std. Dev. 3,063 1,769 2,464 2,161 684 891 655 892 Min 3.95 0.03 0.37 0.15 154 168 259 293 Max 2000-2004 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 301 310 456 225 555 555 555 555 555 Mean Std. Dev. 2,357 2,386 4,344 1,573 679 874 649 883 211 Min 0.03 0.01 1.15 0.03 154 168 259 293 151 Max 3,514 2,937 2,404 3,138 247 455 331 351 23,160 15,490 10,902 15,039 3,108 4,387 4,026 3,312 2,815 3,763 10,818 2,677 224 402 300 324 18,004 21,077 112,925 20,796 1,710 2,425 2,866 2,891 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 44 606 2005-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs 592 416 414 589 595 595 595 595 Mean Std. Dev. 3,228 1,771 2,817 2,469 824 1,120 767 1,055 Min 0.26 0.04 8.10 0.10 248 229 208 389 Max 2005-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 297 331 493 266 580 580 580 580 580 Mean Std. Dev. 3,189 4,073 6,000 2,352 813 1,084 736 1,041 389 Min 0.02 0.19 8.38 0.88 248 229 208 389 189 Max 3,351 2,981 2,363 3,519 320 546 446 429 20,943 15,030 9,630 16,221 3,843 4,000 5,844 4,201 4,037 7,186 14,187 3,192 287 478 290 393 29,892 45,431 164,014 19,194 2,914 2,940 2,762 2,750 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 77 610

12. Table 4-2. Summary Statistics Edible Vegetable Oils: Average Consumption Per Capita and Real Price Non-Edible Vegetable Oils: Average Consumption Per Capita and Real Price Cross-Country Data (156 Countries) Cross-Country Data (156 Countries) 1990-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs Mean Std. Dev. 3,068 1,927 2,430 2,217 935 1,164 868 1,136 Min 0.12 0.03 0.20 0.06 154 146 208 293 Max 1990-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 934 1,049 1,447 778 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,794 Mean Std. Dev. 2,551 2,689 4,458 1,751 855 1,053 792 1,043 254 Min 0.02 0.01 0.31 0.03 154 146 208 293 80 Max 1,890 1,363 1,340 1,881 1,897 1,897 1,897 1,897 3,529 3,038 2,376 3,122 563 734 580 638 23,160 17,978 10,902 16,221 5,732 5,995 5,844 5,974 3,326 4,966 11,317 2,723 362 497 378 416 115 29,892 45,431 164,014 20,796 2,914 2,992 2,907 2,982 Edible Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 680 Edible Vegetable Oils: Average Consumption Per Capita and Real Price Non-Edible Vegetable Oils: Average Consumption Per Capita and Real Price 1990-1999 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 739 543 536 739 742 742 742 742 778 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,794 Mean Std. Dev. 2,943 2,163 2,106 2,057 1,214 1,404 1,109 1,386 1,751 855 1,053 792 1,043 254 Min 0.12 0.11 0.20 0.06 262 146 225 362 0.03 154 146 208 293 80 Max 1990-1999 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 336 408 498 287 659 659 659 659 659 Mean Std. Dev. 2,160 1,796 3,035 1,334 1,041 1,175 962 1,180 171 Min 0.04 0.05 0.31 0.60 262 146 225 362 80 Max 3,674 3,143 2,322 2,743 741 932 719 829 2,723 362 497 378 416 115 20,612 17,978 10,597 12,908 5,732 5,995 5,467 5,974 20,796 2,914 2,992 2,907 2,982 680 2,961 2,909 7,865 2,132 424 542 436 454 22,453 20,706 89,889 14,069 2,721 2,992 2,907 2,982 680 Cross-Country Data (156 Countries) Cross-Country Data (156 Countries) 1990-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs Mean Std. Dev. 3,068 1,927 2,430 2,217 935 1,164 868 1,136 Min 0.12 0.03 0.20 0.06 154 146 208 293 Max 1990-2009 Consumption Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Obs 934 1,049 1,447 Mean Std. Dev. 2,551 2,689 4,458 Min 0.02 0.01 0.31 Max Non-Edible Real Price ($/t) (g/capita/year) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 1,890 1,363 1,340 1,881 1,897 1,897 1,897 1,897 3,529 3,038 2,376 3,122 563 734 580 638 23,160 17,978 10,902 16,221 5,732 5,995 5,844 5,974 3,326 4,966 11,317 29,892 45,431 164,014 68 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 2000-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs Mean Std. Dev. 3,148 1,770 2,646 2,320 756 1,009 713 976 3,035 1,334 1,041 1,175 962 1,180 171 Min 0.26 0.03 0.37 0.10 154 168 208 293 0.31 0.60 262 146 225 362 80 Max 2000-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 598 641 949 491 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 Mean Std. Dev. 2,770 3,257 5,205 1,995 747 982 693 964 302 Min 0.02 0.01 1.15 0.03 154 168 208 293 151 Max 1,151 820 804 1,142 1,155 1,155 1,155 1,155 498 287 659 659 659 659 659 3,431 2,958 2,388 3,342 295 517 398 401 7,865 2,132 424 542 436 454 23,160 15,490 10,902 16,221 3,843 4,387 5,844 4,201 89,889 14,069 2,721 2,992 2,907 2,982 680 3,498 5,846 12,701 2,990 267 454 298 369 109 29,892 45,431 164,014 20,796 2,914 2,940 2,866 2,891 Real Price ($/t) Consumption (g/capita/year) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 1990-1999 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs 739 543 536 739 742 742 742 742 Mean Std. Dev. 2,943 2,163 2,106 2,057 1,214 1,404 1,109 1,386 Min 0.12 0.11 0.20 0.06 262 146 225 362 Max 1990-1999 Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Obs 336 408 Mean Std. Dev. 2,160 1,796 Min 0.04 0.05 Max 3,674 3,143 2,322 2,743 741 932 719 829 20,612 17,978 10,597 12,908 5,732 5,995 5,467 5,974 2,961 2,909 22,453 20,706 610 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 2000-2004 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 559 404 390 553 560 560 560 560 491 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 Mean Std. Dev. 3,063 1,769 2,464 2,161 684 891 655 892 1,995 747 982 693 964 302 Min 3.95 0.03 0.37 0.15 154 168 259 293 0.03 154 168 208 293 151 Max 2000-2004 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 301 310 456 225 555 555 555 555 555 Mean Std. Dev. 2,357 2,386 4,344 1,573 679 874 649 883 211 Min 0.03 0.01 1.15 0.03 154 168 259 293 151 Max 3,514 2,937 2,404 3,138 247 455 331 351 2,990 267 454 298 369 109 23,160 15,490 10,902 15,039 3,108 4,387 4,026 3,312 20,796 2,914 2,940 2,866 2,891 610 2,815 3,763 10,818 2,677 224 402 300 324 18,004 21,077 112,925 20,796 1,710 2,425 2,866 2,891 68 2000-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs Mean Std. Dev. 3,148 1,770 2,646 2,320 756 1,009 713 976 Min 0.26 0.03 0.37 0.10 154 168 208 293 Max 2000-2009 Consumption Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Obs 598 641 949 Mean Std. Dev. 2,770 3,257 5,205 Min 0.02 0.01 1.15 Max Real Price ($/t) (g/capita/year) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 1,151 820 804 1,142 1,155 1,155 1,155 1,155 3,431 2,958 2,388 3,342 295 517 398 401 23,160 15,490 10,902 16,221 3,843 4,387 5,844 4,201 3,498 5,846 12,701 29,892 45,431 164,014 44 606 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 2005-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 592 416 414 589 595 595 595 595 310 456 225 555 555 555 555 555 Mean Std. Dev. 3,228 1,771 2,817 2,469 824 1,120 767 1,055 2,386 4,344 1,573 679 874 649 883 211 Min 0.26 0.04 8.10 0.10 248 229 208 389 0.01 1.15 0.03 154 168 259 293 151 Max 2005-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 297 331 493 266 580 580 580 580 580 Mean Std. Dev. 3,189 4,073 6,000 2,352 813 1,084 736 1,041 389 Min 0.02 0.19 8.38 0.88 248 229 208 389 189 Max 3,351 2,981 2,363 3,519 320 546 446 429 3,763 10,818 2,677 224 402 300 324 20,943 15,030 9,630 16,221 3,843 4,000 5,844 4,201 21,077 112,925 20,796 1,710 2,425 2,866 2,891 4,037 7,186 14,187 3,192 287 478 290 393 29,892 45,431 164,014 19,194 2,914 2,940 2,762 2,750 Real Price ($/t) Consumption (g/capita/year) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 2000-2004 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs 559 404 390 553 560 560 560 560 Mean Std. Dev. 3,063 1,769 2,464 2,161 684 891 655 892 Min 3.95 0.03 0.37 0.15 154 168 259 293 Max 2000-2004 Variable Soybean oil Obs 301 Mean Std. Dev. 2,357 Min 0.03 Max 3,514 2,937 2,404 3,138 247 455 331 351 23,160 15,490 10,902 15,039 3,108 4,387 4,026 3,312 2,815 18,004 77 610 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 44 606 2005-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs 592 416 414 589 595 595 595 595 Mean Std. Dev. 3,228 1,771 2,817 2,469 824 1,120 767 1,055 Min 0.26 0.04 8.10 0.10 248 229 208 389 Max 2005-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 297 331 493 266 580 580 580 580 580 Mean Std. Dev. 3,189 4,073 6,000 2,352 813 1,084 736 1,041 389 Min 0.02 0.19 8.38 0.88 248 229 208 389 189 Max 3,351 2,981 2,363 3,519 320 546 446 429 20,943 15,030 9,630 16,221 3,843 4,000 5,844 4,201 4,037 7,186 14,187 3,192 287 478 290 393 29,892 45,431 164,014 19,194 2,914 2,940 2,762 2,750 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 77 610

13. Edible Vegetable Oils: Average Consumption Per Capita and Real Price Non-Edible Vegetable Oils: Average Consumption Per Capita and Real Price Cross-Country Data (156 Countries) Cross-Country Data (156 Countries) 1990-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs Mean Std. Dev. 3,068 1,927 2,430 2,217 935 1,164 868 1,136 2,430 2,217 935 1,164 868 1,136 Min 0.12 0.03 0.20 0.06 154 146 208 293 0.20 0.06 154 146 208 293 Max 1990-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 934 1,049 1,447 778 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,794 778 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,794 1,794 Mean Std. Dev. 2,551 2,689 4,458 1,751 855 1,053 792 1,043 254 1,751 855 1,053 792 1,043 254 Min 0.02 0.01 0.31 0.03 154 146 208 293 80 0.03 154 146 208 293 80 Max Edible Vegetable Oils: Average Consumption Per Capita and Real Price Non-Edible Vegetable Oils: Average Consumption Per Capita and Real Price 1,890 1,363 1,340 1,881 1,897 1,897 1,897 1,897 1,340 1,881 1,897 1,897 1,897 1,897 3,529 3,038 2,376 3,122 563 734 580 638 2,376 3,122 563 734 580 638 23,160 17,978 10,902 16,221 5,732 5,995 5,844 5,974 10,902 16,221 5,732 5,995 5,844 5,974 3,326 4,966 11,317 2,723 362 497 378 416 115 2,723 362 497 378 416 115 29,892 45,431 164,014 20,796 2,914 2,992 2,907 2,982 164,014 20,796 2,914 2,992 2,907 2,982 Cross-Country Data (156 Countries) Cross-Country Data (156 Countries) Real Price ($/t) Consumption (g/capita/year) Real Price ($/t or /kl) Consumption (g/capita/year) 1990-2009 Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Obs Mean Std. Dev. 3,068 1,927 Min 0.12 0.03 Max 1990-2009 Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Obs 934 1,049 1,447 Mean Std. Dev. 2,551 2,689 4,458 Min 0.02 0.01 0.31 Max 1,890 1,363 3,529 3,038 23,160 17,978 3,326 4,966 11,317 29,892 45,431 680 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 1990-1999 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs 739 543 536 739 742 742 742 742 Table 4-3. Summary Statistics 742 1,404 932 146 5,995 742 1,109 719 225 5,467 742 1,386 829 362 5,974 Mean Std. Dev. 2,943 2,163 2,106 2,057 1,214 1,404 1,109 1,386 2,106 2,057 1,214 Min 0.12 0.11 0.20 0.06 262 146 225 362 0.20 0.06 262 Max 1990-1999 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 336 408 498 287 659 659 659 659 659 287 659 659 659 659 659 Mean Std. Dev. 2,160 1,796 3,035 1,334 1,041 1,175 962 1,180 171 1,334 1,041 1,175 962 1,180 171 Min 0.04 0.05 0.31 0.60 262 146 225 362 80 0.60 262 146 225 362 80 Max 3,674 3,143 2,322 2,743 741 932 719 829 2,322 2,743 741 20,612 17,978 10,597 12,908 5,732 5,995 5,467 5,974 10,597 12,908 5,732 2,961 2,909 7,865 2,132 424 542 436 454 7,865 2,132 424 542 436 454 22,453 20,706 89,889 14,069 2,721 2,992 2,907 2,982 680 14,069 2,721 2,992 2,907 2,982 680 680 Real Price ($/t) Consumption (g/capita/year) Real Price ($/t or /kl) Consumption (g/capita/year) 1990-1999 Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Obs 739 543 536 739 742 Mean Std. Dev. 2,943 2,163 Min 0.12 0.11 Max 1990-1999 Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Obs 336 408 498 Mean Std. Dev. 2,160 1,796 3,035 Min 0.04 0.05 0.31 Max 3,674 3,143 20,612 17,978 2,961 2,909 22,453 20,706 89,889 68 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 2000-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs Mean Std. Dev. 3,148 1,770 2,646 2,320 756 1,009 713 976 2,646 2,320 756 1,009 713 976 Min 0.26 0.03 0.37 0.10 154 168 208 293 0.37 0.10 154 168 208 293 Max 2000-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 598 641 949 491 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 491 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 Mean Std. Dev. 2,770 3,257 5,205 1,995 747 982 693 964 302 1,995 747 982 693 964 302 Min 0.02 0.01 1.15 0.03 154 168 208 293 151 0.03 154 168 208 293 151 Max 1,151 820 804 1,142 1,155 1,155 1,155 1,155 804 1,142 1,155 1,155 1,155 1,155 3,431 2,958 2,388 3,342 295 517 398 401 2,388 3,342 295 517 398 401 23,160 15,490 10,902 16,221 3,843 4,387 5,844 4,201 10,902 16,221 3,843 4,387 5,844 4,201 3,498 5,846 12,701 2,990 267 454 298 369 109 2,990 267 454 298 369 109 29,892 45,431 164,014 20,796 2,914 2,940 2,866 2,891 164,014 20,796 2,914 2,940 2,866 2,891 68 Edible 1,151 820 Non-Edible Soybean oil 598 Rapeseed oil 641 Plam oil 949 Real Price ($/t) Consumption (g/capita/year) Real Price ($/t or /kl) Consumption (g/capita/year) 2000-2009 Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Obs Mean Std. Dev. 3,148 1,770 Min 0.26 0.03 Max 2000-2009 Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. 2,770 3,257 5,205 Min 0.02 0.01 1.15 Max 3,431 2,958 23,160 15,490 3,498 5,846 12,701 29,892 45,431 2000-2004 Average 610 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 2000-2004 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs 559 404 390 553 560 560 560 560 390 553 560 560 560 560 Mean Std. Dev. 3,063 1,769 2,464 2,161 684 891 655 892 2,464 2,161 684 891 655 892 Min 3.95 0.03 0.37 0.15 154 168 259 293 0.37 0.15 154 168 259 293 Max 2000-2004 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 301 310 456 225 555 555 555 555 555 225 555 555 555 555 555 Mean Std. Dev. 2,357 2,386 4,344 1,573 679 874 649 883 211 1,573 679 874 649 883 211 Min 0.03 0.01 1.15 0.03 154 168 259 293 151 0.03 154 168 259 293 151 Max 3,514 2,937 2,404 3,138 247 455 331 351 2,404 3,138 247 455 331 351 23,160 15,490 10,902 15,039 3,108 4,387 4,026 3,312 10,902 15,039 3,108 4,387 4,026 3,312 2,815 3,763 10,818 2,677 224 402 300 324 10,818 2,677 224 402 300 324 18,004 21,077 112,925 20,796 1,710 2,425 2,866 2,891 112,925 20,796 1,710 2,425 2,866 2,891 610 Real Price ($/t) Consumption (g/capita/year) Real Price ($/t or /kl) Consumption (g/capita/year) 2000-2004 Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Obs 559 404 Mean Std. Dev. 3,063 1,769 Min 3.95 0.03 Max 2000-2004 Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Obs 301 310 456 Mean Std. Dev. 2,357 2,386 4,344 Min 0.03 0.01 1.15 Max 3,514 2,937 23,160 15,490 2,815 3,763 18,004 21,077 44 606 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 2005-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Obs 592 416 414 589 595 595 595 595 414 589 595 595 595 595 Mean Std. Dev. 3,228 1,771 2,817 2,469 824 1,120 767 1,055 2,817 2,469 824 1,120 767 1,055 Min 0.26 0.04 8.10 0.10 248 229 208 389 8.10 0.10 248 229 208 389 Max 2005-2009 Consumption (g/capita/year) Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Obs 297 331 493 266 580 580 580 580 580 266 580 580 580 580 580 Mean Std. Dev. 3,189 4,073 6,000 2,352 813 1,084 736 1,041 389 2,352 813 1,084 736 1,041 389 Min 0.02 0.19 8.38 0.88 248 229 208 389 189 0.88 248 229 208 389 189 Max 3,351 2,981 2,363 3,519 320 546 446 429 2,363 3,519 320 546 446 429 20,943 15,030 9,630 16,221 3,843 4,000 5,844 4,201 9,630 16,221 3,843 4,000 5,844 4,201 4,037 7,186 14,187 3,192 287 478 290 393 14,187 3,192 287 478 290 393 29,892 45,431 164,014 19,194 2,914 2,940 2,762 2,750 164,014 19,194 2,914 2,940 2,762 2,750 2005-2009 Average 44 606 Real Price ($/t) Consumption (g/capita/year) Real Price ($/t or /kl) Consumption (g/capita/year) 2005-2009 Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Obs 592 416 Mean Std. Dev. 3,228 1,771 Min 0.26 0.04 Max 2005-2009 Variable Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Obs 297 331 493 Mean Std. Dev. 3,189 4,073 6,000 Min 0.02 0.19 8.38 Max 3,351 2,981 20,943 15,030 4,037 7,186 29,892 45,431 77 610 Real Price ($/t) Real Price ($/t or /kl) 77 610

14. Table 5. Rate of change in the mean of consumption and real price From 1990-1990 to 2000-2009 average Long term Change: 1990-1999 to 2000-2009 Average Edible Oils 7% -18% 26% 13% -38% -28% -36% -30% Non-Edible Oils 28% 81% 71% 50% -28% -16% -28% -18% 76% Consumption (g/capita/year) Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Real Price ($/t or $/kl) From 2000-2004 to 2005-2009 average Short term Change: 2000-2004 to 2005-2009 Average Edible Oils 5% 0% 14% 14% 20% 26% 17% 18% Non-Edible Oils 35% 71% 38% 50% 20% 24% 13% 18% 85% Consumption (g/capita/year) Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Soybean oil Rapeseed oil Plam oil Sunflower oil Crude oil Real Price ($/t or $/kl)

15. Table 6. Real GDP Per Capita Obs 940 620 700 760 100 Mean Std. Dev. 1,473 6,481 6,452 20,369 12,618 Min 28 451 206 352 767 Max Africa America Asia Europe Oceania 2,124 8,424 9,935 18,146 13,716 12,252 43,774 38,620 87,911 40,479

16. Demand Model for Edible Vegetable Oils Double-log demand model for four edible vegetable oils 4 1) ln??????,?,?= ??+ ???????,?+ ?????? ??+ ?? ???+??,? ? = 1, ,4 ?=1 PCCONF,i,t per capita quantity of vegetable oil i consumed for food use at time t Ci: constant term of vegetable oil i s consumption pj,t: real price of vegetable oil j (j = 1 4) at time t xt: real GDP per capita at time t, Dr: region dummy variable (1 or zero) for five regions Africa, America, Asia, Europe and Oceania where countries are located Dpe: preference dummy variable (1 or zero) for each country s preference for a certain type of edible vegetable oil i. i,tis a zero-mean, normally distributed constant variance disturbance Ci, ij, iand iare parameters to be estimated

17. Demand Model for Non-Edible Vegetable Oils Double-log demand model for four non-edible vegetable oils 5 2) ln??????,?,?= ??+ ???????,?+ ?????? ??+ ?? ???+??,? ? = 1, ,4 ?=1 PCCONF,i,t per capita quantity of vegetable oil i consumed for food use at time t Ci: constant term of vegetable oil i s consumption pj,t: real price of vegetable oil j (j = 1 4) and crude oil j (j=5) at time t xt: real GDP per capita at time t, Dr: region dummy variable (1 or zero) for five regions Africa, America, Asia, Europe and Oceania where countries are located Dpn: preference dummy variable (1 or zero) for each country s preference for a certain type of non-edible vegetable oil i. i,tis a zero-mean, normally distributed constant variance disturbance Ci, ij, iand iare parameters to be estimated

18. Table 7. Estimation Results (156 Countries for 1990 - 2009) Edible vegetable oils Non-Edible vegetable oils Per Capita Consumption in 156 Countries (1990-2009) Per Capita Consumption in 156 Countries (1990-2009) Ln Soybean Oil Ln Rapeseed Oil b/t -0.38 [-4.12]*** 0.04 [0.73] -0.11 [-1.49] 0.03 [0.33] Ln Palm Oil b/t 0.33 [3.42]*** 0.00 [-0.02] -0.84 [-9.96]*** 0.21 [2.47]** Ln Sunflower Oil b/t 0.29 [2.53]** 0.02 [0.26] 0.40 [4.10]*** -1.00 [-9.15]*** Ln Soybean Oil Ln Rapeseed Oil b/t -0.28 [-1.67]* -0.02 [-0.21] -0.25 [-1.90]* -0.02 [-0.12] 0.27 [3.45]*** 0.14 [3.57]*** 0.10 [2.96]*** 0.10 [3.03]*** 0.08 [2.82]*** 0.12 [3.61]*** 3.70 [28.91]*** 2.62 [19.76]*** 2.00 [15.33]*** 1.16 [7.22]*** 5.98 [7.04]*** 0.60 0.59 920 96 1.0 Ln Palm Oil b/t -0.29 [-2.24]** -0.10 [-1.26] -0.49 [-4.07]*** 0.01 [0.11] 0.87 [13.17]*** 0.13 [4.35]*** 0.10 [3.91]*** 0.13 [5.00]*** 0.11 [4.90]*** 0.11 [4.12]*** 3.83 [39.19]*** 2.58 [26.51]*** 2.10 [23.90]*** 1.26 [12.73]*** 5.15 [7.27]*** 0.63 0.63 1,436 176 1.1 Ln Sunflower Oil b/t 0.02 [0.07] -0.03 [-0.22] 0.28 [1.43] -0.96 [-3.50]*** 0.70 [5.80]*** -0.05 [-0.74] -0.07 [-1.36] -0.06 [-1.11] -0.03 [-0.60] -0.06 [-1.06] 4.79 [23.58]*** 3.23 [13.37]*** 2.50 [8.96]*** 1.99 [6.28]*** 3.69 [2.80]*** 0.60 0.59 774 80 1.4 b/t 0.12 [0.66] -0.91 [-7.61]*** 0.41 [2.72]*** 0.27 [1.67]* b/t 0.14 [0.64] -1.31 [-8.50]*** 0.50 [2.75]*** -0.06 [-0.28] 0.87 [8.46]*** 0.27 [4.87]*** 0.35 [7.71]*** 0.29 [6.33]*** 0.32 [7.47]*** 0.23 [4.88]*** 4.77 [28.27]*** 3.37 [20.41]*** 2.88 [15.08]*** 2.43 [14.44]*** 0.62 [0.58] 0.73 0.73 1,034 197 1.4 Ln Soybean Oil Real Price Ln Rapeseed Oil Real Price Ln Palm Oil Real Price Ln Sunflower Oil Real Price Ln CrudeOil Real Price Ln Real GDP per Capita in Africa 0.10 0.03 [0.54] 0.12 [2.78]*** 0.14 [3.04]*** 0.13 [3.31]*** 0.16 [3.61]*** 5.03 [29.79]*** 3.92 [28.29]*** 3.43 [18.32]*** 2.36 [13.09]*** 3.18 [3.50]*** 0.70 0.69 1,347 235 1.6 -0.04 [-1.42] -0.03 [-1.46] -0.03 [-1.29] -0.03 [-1.37] -0.05 [-2.02]** 3.64 [41.00]*** 2.67 [27.63]*** 2.09 [23.99]*** 1.62 [15.15]*** 6.87 [13.62]*** 0.65 0.65 1,328 189 0.9 0.18 [3.64]*** 0.14 [6.10]*** 0.11 [4.92]*** 0.11 [5.41]*** 0.12 [4.92]*** 3.73 [38.14]*** 2.93 [39.12]*** 2.24 [30.10]*** 1.74 [22.20]*** 7.09 [15.33]*** 0.68 0.68 1,890 312 1.0 [5.62]*** 0.26 [9.79]*** 0.22 [8.03]*** 0.19 [7.91]*** 0.19 [6.32]*** 4.80 [49.47]*** 3.60 [36.32]*** 2.97 [25.52]*** 2.42 [22.98]*** 3.99 [6.93]*** 0.77 0.77 1,833 465 1.2 Ln Real GDP per Capita in America Ln Real GDP per Capita in Asia Ln Real GDP per Capita in Europe Ln Real GDP per Capita in Oceania Strong Preference Dummy Moderate Preference Dummy Weak Preference Dummy Very Weak Preference Dummy Constant R-squared Adj-R-squared N F Root-MSE * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

19. Table 7. Estimation Results (156 Countries for 1990 - 2009) Edible vegetable oils Non-Edible vegetable oils Per Capita Consumption in 156 Countries (1990-2009) Per Capita Consumption in 156 Countries (1990-2009) Ln Soybean Oil Ln Rapeseed Oil b/t -0.38 [-4.12]*** 0.04 [0.73] -0.11 [-1.49] 0.03 [0.33] Ln Palm Oil b/t 0.33 [3.42]*** 0.00 [-0.02] -0.84 [-9.96]*** 0.21 [2.47]** Ln Sunflower Oil b/t 0.29 [2.53]** 0.02 [0.26] 0.40 [4.10]*** -1.00 [-9.15]*** Ln Soybean Oil Ln Rapeseed Oil b/t -0.28 [-1.67]* -0.02 [-0.21] -0.25 [-1.90]* -0.02 [-0.12] 0.27 [3.45]*** 0.14 [3.57]*** 0.10 [2.96]*** 0.10 [3.03]*** 0.08 [2.82]*** 0.12 [3.61]*** 3.70 [28.91]*** 2.62 [19.76]*** 2.00 [15.33]*** 1.16 [7.22]*** 5.98 [7.04]*** 0.60 0.59 920 96 1.0 Ln Palm Oil b/t -0.29 [-2.24]** -0.10 [-1.26] -0.49 [-4.07]*** 0.01 [0.11] 0.87 [13.17]*** 0.13 [4.35]*** 0.10 [3.91]*** 0.13 [5.00]*** 0.11 [4.90]*** 0.11 [4.12]*** 3.83 [39.19]*** 2.58 [26.51]*** 2.10 [23.90]*** 1.26 [12.73]*** 5.15 [7.27]*** 0.63 0.63 1,436 176 1.1 Ln Sunflower Oil b/t 0.02 [0.07] -0.03 [-0.22] 0.28 [1.43] -0.96 [-3.50]*** 0.70 [5.80]*** -0.05 [-0.74] -0.07 [-1.36] -0.06 [-1.11] -0.03 [-0.60] -0.06 [-1.06] 4.79 [23.58]*** 3.23 [13.37]*** 2.50 [8.96]*** 1.99 [6.28]*** 3.69 [2.80]*** 0.60 0.59 774 80 1.4 b/t 0.12 [0.66] -0.91 [-7.61]*** 0.41 [2.72]*** 0.27 [1.67]* b/t 0.14 [0.64] -1.31 [-8.50]*** 0.50 [2.75]*** -0.06 [-0.28] 0.87 [8.46]*** 0.27 [4.87]*** 0.35 [7.71]*** 0.29 [6.33]*** 0.32 [7.47]*** 0.23 [4.88]*** 4.77 [28.27]*** 3.37 [20.41]*** 2.88 [15.08]*** 2.43 [14.44]*** 0.62 [0.58] 0.73 0.73 1,034 197 1.4 Ln Soybean Oil Real Price Ln Rapeseed Oil Real Price Ln Palm Oil Real Price Ln Sunflower Oil Real Price Ln Real GDP per Capita in Africa 0.10 0.03 [0.54] 0.12 [2.78]*** 0.14 [3.04]*** 0.13 [3.31]*** 0.16 [3.61]*** 5.03 [29.79]*** 3.92 [28.29]*** 3.43 [18.32]*** 2.36 [13.09]*** 3.18 [3.50]*** 0.70 0.69 1,347 235 1.6 -0.04 [-1.42] -0.03 [-1.46] -0.03 [-1.29] -0.03 [-1.37] -0.05 [-2.02]** 3.64 [41.00]*** 2.67 [27.63]*** 2.09 [23.99]*** 1.62 [15.15]*** 6.87 [13.62]*** 0.65 0.65 1,328 189 0.9 0.18 [3.64]*** 0.14 [6.10]*** 0.11 [4.92]*** 0.11 [5.41]*** 0.12 [4.92]*** 3.73 [38.14]*** 2.93 [39.12]*** 2.24 [30.10]*** 1.74 [22.20]*** 7.09 [15.33]*** 0.68 0.68 1,890 312 1.0 [5.62]*** 0.26 [9.79]*** 0.22 [8.03]*** 0.19 [7.91]*** 0.19 [6.32]*** 4.80 [49.47]*** 3.60 [36.32]*** 2.97 [25.52]*** 2.42 [22.98]*** 3.99 [6.93]*** 0.77 0.77 1,833 465 1.2 Ln Real GDP per Capita in America Ln Real GDP per Capita in Asia Ln Real GDP per Capita in Europe Ln Real GDP per Capita in Oceania Strong Preference Dummy Moderate Preference Dummy Weak Preference Dummy Very Weak Preference Dummy Constant R-squared Adj-R-squared N F Root-MSE * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

20. Table 7. Estimation Results (156 Countries for 1990 - 2009) Edible vegetable oils Non-Edible vegetable oils Edible vegetable oils Non-Edible vegetable oils Per Capita Consumption in 156 Countries (1990-2009) Per Capita Consumption in 156 Countries (1990-2009) Ln Soybean Oil Ln Rapeseed Oil b/t b/t -0.38 0.12 [-4.12]*** [0.66] 0.04 -0.91 [0.73] [-7.61]*** -0.11 0.41 [-1.49] [2.72]*** 0.03 0.27 [0.33] [1.67]* Per Capita Consumption in 156 Countries (1990-2009) Per Capita Consumption in 156 Countries (1990-2009) Ln Soybean Oil Ln Rapeseed Oil b/t -0.38 [-4.12]*** 0.04 [0.73] -0.11 [-1.49] 0.03 [0.33] Ln Palm Oil b/t 0.33 [3.42]*** 0.00 [-0.02] -0.84 [-9.96]*** 0.21 [2.47]** Ln Sunflower Oil b/t 0.29 [2.53]** 0.02 [0.26] 0.40 [4.10]*** -1.00 [-9.15]*** Ln Soybean Oil Ln Rapeseed Oil b/t -0.28 [-1.67]* -0.02 [-0.21] -0.25 [-1.90]* -0.02 [-0.12] 0.27 [3.45]*** 0.14 [3.57]*** 0.10 [2.96]*** 0.10 [3.03]*** 0.08 [2.82]*** 0.12 [3.61]*** 3.70 [28.91]*** 2.62 [19.76]*** 2.00 [15.33]*** 1.16 [7.22]*** 5.98 [7.04]*** 0.60 0.59 920 96 1.0 1.0 Ln Palm Oil b/t -0.29 [-2.24]** -0.10 [-1.26] -0.49 [-4.07]*** 0.01 [0.11] 0.87 [13.17]*** 0.13 [4.35]*** 0.10 [3.91]*** 0.13 [5.00]*** 0.11 [4.90]*** 0.11 [4.12]*** 3.83 [39.19]*** 2.58 [26.51]*** 2.10 [23.90]*** 1.26 [12.73]*** 5.15 [7.27]*** 0.63 0.63 1,436 176 1.1 0.9 Ln Sunflower Oil b/t 0.02 [0.07] -0.03 [-0.22] 0.28 [1.43] -0.96 [-3.50]*** 0.70 [5.80]*** -0.05 [-0.74] -0.07 [-1.36] -0.06 [-1.11] -0.03 [-0.60] -0.06 [-1.06] 4.79 [23.58]*** 3.23 [13.37]*** 2.50 [8.96]*** 1.99 [6.28]*** 3.69 [2.80]*** 0.60 0.59 774 80 1.4 1.2 Ln Palm Oil b/t 0.33 [3.42]*** 0.00 [-0.02] -0.84 [-9.96]*** 0.21 [2.47]** Ln Sunflower Oil b/t 0.29 [2.53]** 0.02 [0.26] 0.40 [4.10]*** -1.00 [-9.15]*** Ln Soybean Oil Ln Rapeseed Oil b/t -0.28 [-1.67]* -0.02 [-0.21] -0.25 [-1.90]* -0.02 [-0.12] 0.27 [3.45]*** 0.14 [3.57]*** 0.10 [2.96]*** 0.10 [3.03]*** 0.08 [2.82]*** 0.12 [3.61]*** 3.70 [28.91]*** 2.62 [19.76]*** 2.00 [15.33]*** 1.16 [7.22]*** 5.98 [7.04]*** 0.60 0.59 920 96 1.0 Ln Palm Oil b/t -0.29 [-2.24]** -0.10 [-1.26] -0.49 [-4.07]*** 0.01 [0.11] 0.87 [13.17]*** 0.13 [4.35]*** 0.10 [3.91]*** 0.13 [5.00]*** 0.11 [4.90]*** 0.11 [4.12]*** 3.83 [39.19]*** 2.58 [26.51]*** 2.10 [23.90]*** 1.26 [12.73]*** 5.15 [7.27]*** 0.63 0.63 1,436 176 1.1 Ln Sunflower Oil b/t 0.02 [0.07] -0.03 [-0.22] 0.28 [1.43] -0.96 [-3.50]*** 0.70 [5.80]*** -0.05 [-0.74] -0.07 [-1.36] -0.06 [-1.11] -0.03 [-0.60] -0.06 [-1.06] 4.79 [23.58]*** 3.23 [13.37]*** 2.50 [8.96]*** 1.99 [6.28]*** 3.69 [2.80]*** 0.60 0.59 774 80 1.4 b/t 0.12 [0.66] -0.91 [-7.61]*** 0.41 [2.72]*** 0.27 [1.67]* b/t 0.14 [0.64] -1.31 [-8.50]*** 0.50 [2.75]*** -0.06 [-0.28] 0.87 [8.46]*** 0.27 [4.87]*** 0.35 [7.71]*** 0.29 [6.33]*** 0.32 [7.47]*** 0.23 [4.88]*** 4.77 [28.27]*** 3.37 [20.41]*** 2.88 [15.08]*** 2.43 [14.44]*** 0.62 [0.58] 0.73 0.73 1,034 197 1.4 1.6 b/t 0.14 [0.64] -1.31 [-8.50]*** 0.50 [2.75]*** -0.06 [-0.28] 0.87 [8.46]*** 0.27 [4.87]*** 0.35 [7.71]*** 0.29 [6.33]*** 0.32 [7.47]*** 0.23 [4.88]*** 4.77 [28.27]*** 3.37 [20.41]*** 2.88 [15.08]*** 2.43 [14.44]*** 0.62 [0.58] 0.73 0.73 1,034 197 1.4 Ln Soybean Oil Real Price Ln Soybean Oil Real Price Ln Rapeseed Oil Real Price Ln Rapeseed Oil Real Price Ln Palm Oil Real Price Ln Palm Oil Real Price Ln Sunflower Oil Real Price Ln Sunflower Oil Real Price Ln CrudeOil Real Price Ln CrudeOil Real Price Ln Real GDP per Capita in Africa 0.10 0.03 [0.54] 0.12 [2.78]*** 0.14 [3.04]*** 0.13 [3.31]*** 0.16 [3.61]*** 5.03 [29.79]*** 3.92 [28.29]*** 3.43 [18.32]*** 2.36 [13.09]*** 3.18 [3.50]*** 0.70 0.69 1,347 235 -0.04 [-1.42] -0.03 [-1.46] -0.03 [-1.29] -0.03 [-1.37] -0.05 [-2.02]** 3.64 [41.00]*** 2.67 [27.63]*** 2.09 [23.99]*** 1.62 [15.15]*** 6.87 [13.62]*** 0.65 0.65 1,328 189 0.18 Ln Real GDP per Capita in Africa 0.10 0.03 [0.54] 0.12 [2.78]*** 0.14 [3.04]*** 0.13 [3.31]*** 0.16 [3.61]*** 5.03 [29.79]*** 3.92 [28.29]*** 3.43 [18.32]*** 2.36 [13.09]*** 3.18 [3.50]*** 0.70 0.69 1,347 235 1.6 -0.04 [-1.42] -0.03 [-1.46] -0.03 [-1.29] -0.03 [-1.37] -0.05 [-2.02]** 3.64 [41.00]*** 2.67 [27.63]*** 2.09 [23.99]*** 1.62 [15.15]*** 6.87 [13.62]*** 0.65 0.65 1,328 189 0.9 * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01 0.18 [3.64]*** 0.14 [6.10]*** 0.11 [4.92]*** 0.11 [5.41]*** 0.12 [4.92]*** 3.73 [38.14]*** 2.93 [39.12]*** 2.24 [30.10]*** 1.74 [22.20]*** 7.09 [15.33]*** 0.68 0.68 1,890 312 [5.62]*** 0.26 [9.79]*** 0.22 [8.03]*** 0.19 [7.91]*** 0.19 [6.32]*** 4.80 [49.47]*** 3.60 [36.32]*** 2.97 [25.52]*** 2.42 [22.98]*** 3.99 [6.93]*** 0.77 0.77 1,833 465 [3.64]*** 0.14 [6.10]*** 0.11 [4.92]*** 0.11 [5.41]*** 0.12 [4.92]*** 3.73 [38.14]*** 2.93 [39.12]*** 2.24 [30.10]*** 1.74 [22.20]*** 7.09 [15.33]*** 0.68 0.68 1,890 312 1.0 [5.62]*** 0.26 [9.79]*** 0.22 [8.03]*** 0.19 [7.91]*** 0.19 [6.32]*** 4.80 [49.47]*** 3.60 [36.32]*** 2.97 [25.52]*** 2.42 [22.98]*** 3.99 [6.93]*** 0.77 0.77 1,833 465 1.2 Ln Real GDP per Capita in America Ln Real GDP per Capita in America Ln Real GDP per Capita in Asia Ln Real GDP per Capita in Asia Ln Real GDP per Capita in Europe Ln Real GDP per Capita in Europe Ln Real GDP per Capita in Oceania Ln Real GDP per Capita in Oceania Strong Preference Dummy Strong Preference Dummy Moderate Preference Dummy Moderate Preference Dummy Weak Preference Dummy Weak Preference Dummy Very Weak Preference Dummy Very Weak Preference Dummy Constant Constant R-squared Adj-R-squared N F Root-MSE R-squared Adj-R-squared N F Root-MSE * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

21. Figure 2. Cross-Price Effect on Global Demand for Edible and Non-Edible Vegetable Oils Note. Arrow represents the direction of cross price effect on demand for the other vegetable oils at least the 10% significance level.

22. Figure 3. World Average of Non-Edible Vegetable Oils Consumption per Capita and Crude Oil Nominal Price

23. Strategic Planning Initiatives 1) Policy and regulation: e.g. Trans Fats Issue 2) Competitive product positioning: e.g. Emphasis on a vegetable oil s positive characteristics 3) Technological innovation: e.g. High-oleic soybean innovation and commercialization Key Point: Cost Performance after Quality Innovation Because our paper finds that soybean oil price plays a central role in demand determination of other edible vegetable oils in a global market of edible vegetable oils through its cross-price substitution effect.

24. Thank you for your attention.