Dairy Market Insights in Kazakhstan: Consumption Trends and Dynamics
In 2021, milk and dairy consumption in Kazakhstan saw a decrease in per capita consumption, with varying rates in urban and rural areas. The highest consumption was in Eastern Kazakhstan region, while Shymkent had the lowest. The dairy market dynamics in March 2022 showed a slight decrease in volume but an increase in value compared to the previous period. The market exhibited positive long-term trends. Segment-wise, both Traditional and Modern dairy segments saw growth, with Modern Dairy experiencing a slowing growth rate since December 2021. Across different categories, most showed a positive trend except for certain Modern Dairy categories. Overall, the dairy market in Kazakhstan is dynamic and evolving.
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MILK AND DAIRY CONSUMPTION IN KAZAKHSTAN In 2021 milk and dairy consumption by population has decreased by 6,3% p.a to 243,2 kg/ per capita. In cities average consumption is 254,7 kg, in rural areas 226,7 kg. Highest consumption spotted in Eastern Kazakhstan region: 294,9 kg, still less by 1,6% from past year. Among leaders are Karagandy and Akmola regions. Lowest consumption spotted in Shymkent: totally 140,1 kg less by 15,4% than year before. In 2021 consumption per capita was 16 kg of milk, 15,3 kg of kefir, 4,9 kg of sour cream, 4,6 kg of curd, 2,2 kg of yogurt, 2,1 kg of cheese. :
TOTAL DAIRY MARKET DYNAMICS* In MAR 22 Total Dairy market slightly decreased in volume (-0,4%) but grew in value (+2,5%) compared to the previous period. At the same time the market showed a positive long-term trend (+5,2% in volume and +23,2% in value in terms of dynamic) vs MAR 21. Volume (1000 ton) Value (bln KZT) 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.1 23.8 23.5 23.5 23.2 16.3 15.9 15.0 14.9 14.6 14.5 14.0 14.0 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.2 13.1 MAR 2021 APR 2021 MAY 2021 JUN 2021 JUL 2021 AUG 2021 SEP'21 OCT'21 NOV'21 DEC'21 JAN'22 FEB'22 MAR'22 *Absolute values are given for the identification of trends, but not for understanding of the real market volume Source: Nielsen RA data, MAR 21 MAR 22 periods, Urban Only
TOTAL DAIRY MARKET DYNAMICS, BY SEGMENTS In MAR 22 Total Dairy market showed a positive dynamic (+23,2% in value and +5,2% in volume vs YA). The growth slowed down in Tradi and Modern segment as well. It should be noted that the growth rate of Modern Dairy in volume is slowing down since DEC 21. TOTAL DAIRY MARKET BY SEGMENT (vs YA, %) TRADI DAIRY Value Volume + 22.5% + 18.4% TOTAL DAIRY MARKET GROWTH RATE (vs YA, %) + 15.3% + 13.4% + 4.1% + 3.6% + 4.4% + 3.0% Value Volume + 23.2% DEC'21 JAN'22 FEB'22 MAR'22 + 20.1% + 16.8% + 16.4% MODERN DAIRY Value Volume + 5.4% + 5.2% + 4.9% + 4.9% + 25.3% + 25.1% + 24.8% + 24.0% + 23.7% + 21.7% + 20.6% + 15.3% + 15.2% + 13.7% + 12.7% DEC'21 JAN'22 FEB'22 MAR'22 + 10.7% + 10.0% + 9.7% SEP'21 OCT'21 NOV'21 DEC'21 JAN'22 FEB'22 MAR'22 Source: Nielsen RA data, SEP 21 MARCH 22 periods, Urban Only
TOTAL DAIRY MARKET DYNAMICS, BY CATEGORIES All categories except Curd, Spoonable Yo and Dairy Desserts showed a positive trend vs last year. At the same time all Modern Dairy categories except Milk Shakes decreased compared to the previous period. VOLUME GROWTH ( MAR 22 vs YA, %) VOLUME GROWTH (MAR 22 vs PP, %) TOTAL DAIRY 5.2% -0.4% TRADI DAIRY 4.1% 0.3% UHT Milk 2.1% -3.2% EVP Milk 25.2% 11.8% Sour Cream 3.2% 1.5% Curd -3.2% -1.7% Kefir 6.3% 5.2% Glazed Curds 16.5% 5.6% MODERN DAIRY 9.7% -3.2% -1.5% Spoonable Yo -3.5% Drinkable Yo 15.8% -2.5% -7.6% Cheese Cheese -10.7% Milk Cocktails 17.2% 0.5% Source: Nielsen RA data, SEP 21 MARCH 22 periods, Urban Only
AVERAGE RETAIL OBSERVED SHELF PRICE EVOLUATION BY CATOGORIES In MAR 22 av. observed mix shelf price (OMRSP) of Total Dairy increased by 3%. Spoonable Yo category showed the most significant growth compared to YA (+22,1%) AVRG Retail price per kg KZT ( MAR 22) Change vs. FEB 22 (%) Change vs. MAR 21 (%) Total Dairy 3.0% Total Dairy 17.1% Total Dairy 660.8 Tradi Dairy 3.8% Tradi Dairy 17.6% Tradi Dairy 574.2 UHT Milk 4.1% UHT Milk 21.4% UHT Milk 427.4 -0.5% EVP Milk EVP Milk 9.9% EVP Milk 1134.2 Sour Cream 3.6% Sour Cream 16.1% Sour Cream 1270.7 Curd 1.9% Curd 12.8% Curd 1816.8 Kefir 3.6% Kefir 13.3% Kefir 399.3 Glazed Curds 2.1% Glazed Curds 17.1% Glazed Curds 4556.2 Modern Dairy 2.2% Modern Dairy 13.7% Modern Dairy 1000.1 Spoonable Yo 2.4% Spoonable Yo 22.1% Spoonable Yo 1456.3 Drinkable Yo 2.9% Drinkable Yo 17.6% Drinkable Yo 756.7 Cheese 4.8% Cheese 14.9% Cheese 2046.9 Milk Cocktails 2.2% Milk Cocktails 20.6% Milk Cocktails 1052.2 Source: Nielsen RA data, MAR 21 MARCH 22 periods, Urban Only
Plant Based (PB) milk is a new undiscovered category for the local consumer. For instance, more than half (57,2%) of PB milk consumers have been consuming this product for less than one year. 65,2% of target audience consumes the category at least once a week. 31,8% of PB milk consumers don t consume red meat while 5% keep the vegetarian/vegan diet. How long have you been consuming Plant-based milk? Meat consumption of PB milk consumers? 5.0% More than 1 year 42.8% Doesn't limit him/her- self in comsumption of meat of PB milk consumers drink the product at least once a week. 65,2% 7-12 month 12.9% Doesn't consume red meat 31.8% 63.2% 4-6 month 23.9% Doesn't consume meat at all 1-3 month 19.9% Less than 1 month 0.5% PB milk consumer research results. Sample: 201
Since PB milk is a new product for the local people, consumers do not tend to try the product themself. 71,7% of PB consumers came into category because of somebody s advice (inner circle, nutritionist, trainer, barista etc.). More than half respondents consume PB as a pure product, with a coffee or with a porridge. How have you tried a Plant-based milk for the first time? How do you consume a Plant-based milk? Immedeate environment's advice 40.3% As a pure product of PB milk consumers experienced stomach problems after consumption of cow milk 53.2% Doctor's/nutritionist's advice 12.9% 31,8% With a coffee 52.2% Decided to try after ad 11.4% With a porridge 50.8% Fitness trainer's advice 8.5% With a tea 45.3% Decided to try after reading web articles Decided to try something new 7.0% of PB milk consumers experienced skin problems after consumption of cow milk With a muesli/flakes 33.3% 7.0% With a cocktail/smoothie 22.9% 21,4% Barista's/waiter's advice 5.5% Use in a baking 13.4% Blogger's advice 4.5% With a sports nutrition (whey protein/gainer) 10.5% Other 3.0% PB milk consumer research results. Sample: 201
