California's Fiscal Outlook Presented to California School Boards Association

California's fiscal outlook, as presented to the California School Boards Association, highlights positive trends in state revenues, a healthy general fund condition, and projected increases in education funding. The state's operating surpluses, though declining rainy day deposits, indicate overall financial stability. Debt-service ratio remains manageable, with continued focus on education funding and budget guarantees.

• California
• Fiscal Outlook
• Education Funding
• State Revenues
• Financial Stability

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1. Californias Fiscal Outlook Presented to: California School Boards Association December 3, 2015 Legislative Analyst s Office 0

2. States Fiscal Outlook 1

3. State Revenues Up in 2014-15 and 2015-16 General Fund and Education Protection Account Combined (In Millions) 2

4. States General Fund Condition Healthy in 2016-17 Estimates Under Main Scenario (In Millions) 3

5. All Big State Revenue Sources Grow Throughout Forecast Period Big Three Revenues Under Main Scenario (In Billions) 4

6. Annual Rainy Day Deposits Become Smaller Each Year of Forecast Period Estimates Under Main Scenario (Dollars in Billions) 5

7. Under Main Scenario, Operating Surpluses Each Year of Period (In Billions) 6

8. Debt-Service Ratio Expected to Remain Around 5 Percent Percent of General Fund Revenues and Transfers Spent on Debt Service 7

9. Education Outlook 8

10. 2014-15 Minimum Guarantee Up From Budget Act Estimates (Dollars in Millions) 9

11. 2015-16 Minimum Guarantee Up From Budget Act Estimates (Dollars in Millions) 10

12. $3.6 Billion Increase in Proposition 98 Funding Projected for 2016-17 LAO Main Scenario (In Millions) 11

13. Minimum Guarantee Almost $10 Billion Higher in 2019-20 Than 2014-15 LAO Main Scenario (In Billions) 12

14. Increases in Guarantee Borne Disproportionately by Local Property Tax Change From Prior Year (In Billions) 13

15. Assessed Property Values Grow Moderately Throughout Forecast Period Percent Change From Prior Year 14

16. Local Control Funding Grows More Quickly During First Half of Forecast Period Percent of Target Funded 15

17. Effect of State Revenues on Minimum Guarantee Changes Throughout Period 2014-15: Highly Sensitive 2015-16: Highly Insensitive 2016-17: Somewhat Sensitive Remainder of Period: Somewhat Sensitive 16

18. Other Outlook Scenarios 17

19. Current Economic Expansion Already Among Longest in U.S. History Data Since 1854 18

20. Slowdown Scenario: Smaller Operating Surpluses (In Billions) 19

21. Recession Scenario: Reserves Cover Operating Deficits Until 2019-20 (In Billions) 20

22. Comparing Proposition 98 Minimum Guarantee Under Three Scenarios (In Billions) 21

23. lao.ca.gov 22