Buckinghamshire's Out-of-Work Benefits Claimant Count January 2023 Report
This report provides a monthly summary of Buckinghamshire residents claiming out-of-work related benefits, detailing the Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count for December 2022. It includes statistical data analysis, trends, and comparisons to national averages, offering insights into the impact of the pandemic on joblessness in the region, particularly focusing on the Wycombe parliamentary constituency. The report also highlights changes in claimant rates across different areas and age groups, with comparisons to pre-pandemic levels.
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Buckinghamshires Claimant Count Buckinghamshire s Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count January 2023
Background Background This report provides a monthly summary of the number of Buckinghamshire residents claiming out-of-work related benefits (the Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count). Data is sourced from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and can be found in varying configurations on the NOMIS, Stat-Explore and DWP websites. A full explanation of the two measures can be found in the Technical Appendix at the end of this report.
Headlines December 2022 In December 2022, 8,845 Buckinghamshire residents were claiming out-of-work related benefits (the Claimant Count). The number of claimants in Buckinghamshire rose by 120 between November 2022 and December 2022. There were 3,305 more claimants in Buckinghamshire in December 2022 than at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. Buckinghamshire s Claimant Count rate (number of claimants as a proportion of working age residents) currently stands at 2.7%, up from 2.6% in November 2022, and lower than the national average of 3.8%. When compared to other LEP areas, Buckinghamshire has the joint 11thlowest Claimant Count rate out of 38 LEP areas (up from having the fourth lowest rate pre-pandemic). Buckinghamshire s Claimant Count rate was 1.0 percentage points higher in December 2022 than March 2020, compared to 0.8 percentage point higher nationally. Within Buckinghamshire, the Claimant Count rate is highest (and above the national average) in the Wycombe parliamentary constituency area (4.0%). 25-49 year olds make up a greater proportion of all those claiming currently than in March 2020, whilst a smaller proportion are aged 50+ and 16-24. London has experienced the largest increase in Claimant Count rates since the start of the pandemic, with edge-of-London areas (particularly those close to Heathrow and Gatwick airports) tending to see higher than average increases in Claimant Count rates and higher than average levels of furloughing.
Table 1: Claimant Count Table 1: Claimant Count December 2022 December 2022 Area March 2020 December 2022 March 2020 - December 2022 Parliamentary constituency Number % Number % Change % point change Aylesbury 1,420 1.8 2,295 2.9 875 1.1 Beaconsfield 820 1.4 1,345 2.3 525 0.9 Buckingham 710 1.1 1,255 1.9 545 0.8 Chesham and Amersham Wycombe 750 1.4 1,195 2.2 445 0.8 1,840 2.6 2,750 4.0 910 1.4 Buckinghamshire 5,540 1.7 8,845 2.7 3,305 1.0 England 1,063,505 3.0 1,322,885 3.8 259,380 0.8 Source: DWP, via NOMIS
Chart 1: Claimant Count Chart 1: Claimant Count December 2022 December 2022 7.0 18,000 3,305 more claimants in December 2022 than in March 2020 16,000 6.0 14,000 5.0 12,000 4.0 10,000 8,000 3.0 6,000 2.0 4,000 1.0 2,000 0.0 0 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 May 2019 May 2020 May 2021 May 2022 February 2019 October 2019 February 2020 October 2020 February 2021 October 2021 February 2022 October 2022 August 2019 November 2019 August 2020 November 2020 August 2021 November 2021 August 2022 November 2022 June 2019 June 2020 June 2021 June 2022 March 2019 December 2019 March 2020 December 2020 March 2021 December 2021 March 2022 December 2022 July 2019 July 2020 July 2021 July 2022 April 2019 April 2020 April 2021 April 2022 September 2019 September 2020 September 2021 September 2022 Bucks - number Bucks % England % Source: DWP, via NOMIS
Chart 3: Claimant Count rate % point change (March 2020 to Chart 3: Claimant Count rate % point change (March 2020 to December 2022) by Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) area December 2022) by Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) area 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Source: DWP, via NOMIS
Chart 4: Claimant Count rate by LEP area (December 2022) Chart 4: Claimant Count rate by LEP area (December 2022) 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Source: DWP, via NOMIS
Characteristics of claimants Characteristics of claimants Between March 2020 and December 2022, the Claimant Count rate in Buckinghamshire for men rose by 0.9 percentage points, compared to 1.1 percentage points for women. People aged 25-49 make up a greater proportion of all those claiming now than pre-pandemic. There was a 74% increase in the number of 25-49 year old claimants in Buckinghamshire between March 2020 and December 2022, compared to a 60% increase across all ages.
Chart 5: Alternative Claimant Count rate January Chart 5: Alternative Claimant Count rate January 2013 to August 2022 2013 to August 2022 Buckinghamshire Buckinghamshire 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: DWP, via Stat-Xplore
Chart 6: Movement of people onto and off out of work benefits 16,000 14,000 12,000 On flow 10,000 Off flow 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Source: Alternative Claimant Count, DWP, via Stat-Xplore
Technical Appendix (1) Technical Appendix (1) Local-level unemployment data is not available from a single, timely, reliable source. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) model local unemployment data using data from the Annual Population Survey and the Claimant Count (administrative data on those claiming out-of-work related benefits) However, this is not available in real or near-time. Modelled unemployment data is released on a quarterly basis and covers the previous 12 months. So, for example, data released in October 2020, relates to the period July 2019 to June 2020 This is not therefore a useful source for the timely tracking of the impact of Covid-19 on the Buckinghamshire economy
Technical Appendix (2) Technical Appendix (2) The Claimant Count counts the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance plus those who claim Universal Credit and are required to seek work and be available for work. It is a measure of the number of people claiming out-of-work related benefits. Whilst the Claimant Count is not a measure of unemployment, it is a useful proxy at the local level It is also a timely measure as data is released on a monthly basis. Data released in the second week in October 2020 for example, measures the number of claimants in the month to the second week in September 2020.
Technical Appendix (3) Technical Appendix (3) Some key things to bear in mind when interpreting this data Not all those who are unemployed claim benefits. This is largely due to people finding new work very quickly or having other sources of financial support at home. In normal (non-pandemic) times, it is estimated that around 55% of unemployed Buckinghamshire residents claim benefits and are therefore counted within the Claimant Count. A much lower proportion than the national average. Not all those counted within the Claimant Count are unemployed (some are working a low number of hours and / or are earning a low income). Due to the phased nature of recent changes to the benefits system, the Claimant Count cannot be used to measure historical trends. DWP therefore publish the Alternative Claimant Count, which models what the count would have been if Universal Credit had been in place since 2013. This data is less timely than the Claimant Count itself. For example, data for August 2020 was published in October 2020. And is published quarterly rather than monthly. Buckinghamshire LEP will therefore track and publish commentary on both the Claimant Count and the Alternative Claimant Count.
For further information on the information presented within this slide deck please contact James Moorhouse james.moorhouse@buckslep.co.uk Links below to the data tables used are below .. Claimant Count Alternative Claimant Count Further analysis of the impact of Covid-19 on the Buckinghamshire economy can be found on the Buckinghamshire Economic Observatory website www.buckseconomy.co.uk Follow @caroline_BLEP for tweets about the Buckinghamshire economy and labour market
